← Tickers

GOOGL

Alphabet (Google) · Nasdaq · USA

Cap tier
Mega
Approx cap
$2300.0B
Bull scenarios
960
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 960 public links lack move; 0 lack probability

Themes & clusters

From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C580 GW AI Buildout Target (US)AI coding copilots replacing junior engineersAI research agentsAI-discovered Drugs PipelineAR glasses (Amazon delivery worker)Agent-to-agent network effectsApplication-Specific Chip DesignsAvatar-based AI tutor personasComputer Use (agent capability)Crypto wallets / stablecoin agent railsDiffusion models/diffusion transformersError-corrected qubitsFleet Operations & Maintenance (robotaxi)Foundation model agent teams / multi-agent orchestrationGigawatt-scale data centersMulti-agent parallelization (200-256 agents)Nuclear power for data centersReasoning ModelsRecursive self-improvementSmall Modular Reactors (SMR)Subsea cable gateway (India)Synthetic training dataTPUs (Tensor Processing Units)Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model

Investment thesis

From SRC_B Company Master

Only vertically integrated hyperscaler with its own model, chip, and robotaxi.

Bull scenarios (960)

Predictions where this ticker benefits
PredRoleDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactStatus
INF_011multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets.Morgan Stanley92.3%unknownunknownin_progress
AUT_016multi_vectorAINVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l...Jensen Huang81.0%unknownunknownin_progress
246_001multi_vectorMarkets/StocksSpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.Peter Diamandis78.6%unknownunknownpartial
ROB_026multi_vectorDefenseAutonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ...Alex Finn77.1%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_022multi_vectorAISupply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ...Alex Wissner-Gross75.9%unknownunknownin_progress
AUT_008multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur...Dara Khosrowshahi75.5%unknownunknownin_progress
AI_017multi_vectorSemisNVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut...Jensen Huang74.8%unknownunknownin_progress
243_002multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi74.8%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_005multi_vectorAI/InfrastructureStargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).Sam Altman72.3%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_047multi_vectorAI/HardwareAt 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.Jimmy Ba70.6%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_026multi_vectorAI'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru...Andrej Karpathy69.9%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_036multi_vectorAI/CognitionWorld-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).Eric Schmidt69.7%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_008multi_vectorSemisHyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps from approximately 8% of total AI capex (2023) to 30% by end-2026 — High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM face severe structural supply constraints with DRAM prices more than doub...Morgan Stanley68.8%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_020multi_vectorMacro/EconomyNearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026.Morgan Stanley67.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_044multi_vectorAI/ComputeFuture data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting.Morgan Stanley65.0%unknownunknownpending
AI_014multi_vectorAIA new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrastructure was built for human-speed traffic; the new internet must handle agent-speed workloads (recursive, bursty, massive). The 'screen time' KPI dies: future software will be...Marc Andreessen65.0%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_007multi_vectorSemisData-center CPU market expansion refined to $32.5-$60 billion by 2030 — CPUs as indispensable control layer orchestrating multi-step agentic logic, managing conditional branching, and coordinating vast arrays of specialized smaller AI models.Morgan Stanley64.8%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_020multi_vectorSpaceStarlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency.Gwynne Shotwell64.8%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_022multi_vectorAI/ArchitectureFP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.Dave Blundin64.5%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_006multi_vectorAI/FinanceOpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction.Sam Altman63.5%unknownunknownpartial
SPC_017multi_vectorAIStartups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o...Jennifer Li63.3%unknownunknownin_progress
244_020multi_vectorAuto/TransportNeed for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few yearsPeter Diamandis62.8%unknownunknownpartial
CMQ_046multi_vectorSemis/MemorySustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply.Morgan Stanley62.7%unknownunknownpending
246_008multi_vectorMarkets/StocksElon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).Peter Diamandis62.4%unknownunknownpartial
247_033multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityTimelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decadeDemis Hassabis62.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_062multi_vectorQuantumPhysicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement.Alex Wissner-Gross61.5%unknownunknownin_progress
238_020multi_vectorAIMath field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)Alex Wissner-Gross60.7%unknownunknownpartial
248_011multi_vectorAIFrontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year.Dave Blundin60.3%unknownunknownpending
AI_037multi_vectorGeopoliticsEU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers.Daniella Amodei60.2%unknownunknownin_progress
234_014multi_vectorMarkets/StocksWe will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year periodPeter Diamandis59.5%unknownunknownpending
232_003multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size.Dave Blundin59.5%unknownunknownpartial
247_034multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decadeDario Amodei59.4%unknownunknownpending
237_025multi_vectorAIWe are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.Peter Diamandis59.4%unknownunknownpending
231_021multi_vectorConsumerPrivacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Peter Diamandis59.2%unknownunknownpending
230_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksEnterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Dario Amodei59.2%unknownunknownpending
AUT_002multi_vectorAIModels excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...Alex Wissner-Gross59.1%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_013multi_vectorEnergyNatural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow...Morgan Stanley59.1%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_037multi_vectorGeopoliticsAn all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy.Leopold Aschenbrenner58.4%unknownunknownin_progress
231_031multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.Peter Diamandis58.0%unknownunknownpartial
CYB_004multi_vectorAIThe Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorsey plus major cloud providers and AI labs — will establish vendor-neutral open-governance protocols for agent orchestration, ensuring critical 2030s infrastructure is not monop...Jack Dorsey58.0%unknownunknownin_progress
SPC_027multi_vectorAIA 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl...Alex Finn57.7%unknownunknownin_progress
234_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityLab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental optionPeter Diamandis57.3%unknownunknownpending
240_054multi_vectorAIASI will reinvent patent and copyright practicesPeter Diamandis57.1%unknownunknownpending
INF_070multi_vectorEnergyBitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen...Leopold Aschenbrenner56.8%unknownunknownin_progress
241_050multi_vectorAIAI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutionsEric Schmidt56.7%unknownunknownpending
SEM_002multi_vectorAIBy 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs).Leopold Aschenbrenner55.8%unknownunknownpartial
235_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityLongevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years.Peter Diamandis55.7%unknownunknownpending
SEM_049multi_vectorAI/SoftwareAI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement.Alex Wissner-Gross55.7%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_033multi_vectorAI/PhysicsAI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).Alex Wissner-Gross55.6%unknownunknownpartial
INF_010multi_vectorEnergyUS data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues.Morgan Stanley55.6%unknownunknownpending
246_005multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.Peter Diamandis55.4%unknownunknownpartial
245_042multi_vectorBiotech/LongevitySynthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion)Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
235_003multi_vectorMarkets/StocksFirst $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
244_032multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi55.2%unknownunknownpending
247_046multi_vectorAIAI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
233_016multi_vectorEducationAlpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.MacKenzie Price55.2%unknownunknownin_progress
231_044multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
238_004multi_vectorMedia/AdsFuture Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the futurePeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
241_011multi_vectorLabor/JobsBy end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skillPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
242_012multi_vectorAuto/TransportFlying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 monthsPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
247_041multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditionalPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
CYB_003multi_vectorAILocalized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...Alex Finn55.1%unknownunknownpartial
239_026multi_vectorOtherFuture will be very entertainingElon Musk55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_047multi_vectorMacro/EconomyNew emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_001multi_vectorLabor/JobsRapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_002multi_vectorEducationColleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_026multi_vectorEducationCollege bankruptcy rate will skyrocketPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
240_044multi_vectorEducationCollege bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
240_043multi_vectorLabor/JobsCS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
232_041multi_vectorGeopoliticsPhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
231_011multi_vectorGeopoliticsThe country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsReskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
237_004multi_vectorConsumerMac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
242_022multi_vectorReal EstatePersonal garages at home will disappearPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
241_018multi_vectorEnergyAlgorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Eric Schmidt55.0%unknownunknownin_progress
236_033multi_vectorAIPie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hoursAndrew Yang55.0%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_001multi_vectorAI/ComputeCompute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections.Leopold Aschenbrenner54.9%unknownunknownpending
237_001multi_vectorAIIncreased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
237_002multi_vectorAIWe will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
232_018multi_vectorAIWe are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
232_017multi_vectorAIAI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
241_007multi_vectorAISuper intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)San Francisco AI community54.6%unknownunknownin_progress
238_049multi_vectorAuto/TransportArcher Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
241_014multi_vectorAIThe world a year from today will be nothing like the world todayPeter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
231_005multi_vectorAINext year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
242_013multi_vectorAuto/TransportFlying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
ROB_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsSelf-driving vehicles and autonomous systems will begin completely replacing human gig workers within 10-15 years — a major societal challenge for millions of drivers reliant on ride-share platforms, necessitating new paradigms for on-demand, AI-assist...Dara Khosrowshahi54.5%unknownunknownpending
243_044multi_vectorAuto/TransportTesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)Peter Diamandis54.5%unknownunknownpending
240_056multi_vectorAIAnthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)Peter Diamandis54.3%unknownunknownpending
230_030multi_vectorMacro/EconomyEconomy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes.Peter Diamandis54.2%unknownunknownpending
SEM_045multi_vectorEconomy/OrgTraditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations.Salim Ismail54.2%unknownunknownpartial
245_011multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal is spinning out a dozen companies each with massive potentialPeter Diamandis54.1%unknownunknownpending
241_024multi_vectorSpaceHeat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressedEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_026multi_vectorSpaceSpace data center technology is understood and largely figured outEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_054multi_vectorSpaceSpace wins by far on energy argument for data centersPeter Diamandis54.0%unknownunknownpending
INF_034multi_vectorReal EstateEquinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026.Equinix53.9%unknownunknownin_progress
241_059multi_vectorEnergyGovernment will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsPeter Diamandis53.9%unknownunknownpending
247_037multi_vectorCryptoQuantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position)Michael Saylor53.8%unknownunknownpending
247_039multi_vectorCryptoQuantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% rightDave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
231_041multi_vectorLabor/JobsRadical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
240_060multi_vectorMedia/AdsEveryone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into moviesPeter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
232_043multi_vectorLabor/JobsCorporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
230_048multi_vectorAIAgentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms.Peter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
246_029multi_vectorAIApple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
233_007multi_vectorEducationIn 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform.Joe Liemandt53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
231_034multi_vectorEnergyPower constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
241_060multi_vectorSpaceData centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centersPeter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
SEM_046multi_vectorAI/StartupsAI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero.Joe Liemandt53.5%unknownunknownin_progress
236_008multi_vectorMarkets/StocksFirst $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come onlinePeter Diamandis53.5%unknownunknownpending
231_050multi_vectorMacro/EconomyNew economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Dave Blundin53.4%unknownunknownpending
236_048multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldPeter Diamandis53.2%unknownunknownpending
244_014multi_vectorAuto/TransportAV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offerDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_030multi_vectorOtherPhysical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital worldDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_034multi_vectorOtherCompanies get more conservative as they grow, but should do oppositeDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_008multi_vectorOtherIf you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show upDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
235_029multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBig pharma companies will transition into longevity business in next 3 years.Peter Diamandis52.9%unknownunknownpending
245_005multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityCountries will become customers to preserve endangered species via ColossalPeter Diamandis52.9%unknownunknownpending
235_022multi_vectorEnergyUS will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.Peter Diamandis52.8%unknownunknownpending
241_044multi_vectorEnergyRate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEric Schmidt52.4%unknownunknownin_progress
231_026multi_vectorAISomething bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.Dave Blundin52.4%unknownunknownpending
232_010multi_vectorAIVoice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
230_025multi_vectorAIThe next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
230_013multi_vectorMacro/EconomyThere will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.Dave Blundin52.1%unknownunknownpending
231_043multi_vectorLabor/JobsLack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.Peter Diamandis51.9%unknownunknownpending
235_033multi_vectorAuto/TransportChinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.Peter Diamandis51.7%unknownunknownpending
246_035multi_vectorAITerafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel.Peter Diamandis51.3%unknownunknownpending
AUT_001multi_vectorAIThe HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of...Alex Finn51.2%unknownunknownin_progress
233_005multi_vectorAIInteractive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.Dave Blundin51.2%unknownunknownpending
241_055multi_vectorSpaceNext frontier of AI infrastructure is spacePeter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
242_058multi_vectorAuto/TransportCybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleetsPeter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
231_012multi_vectorAIWithin 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.Peter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
241_019multi_vectorAIAI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yetEric Schmidt51.1%unknownunknownpending
232_019multi_vectorAIAI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.Ben Horowitz51.1%unknownunknownpending
INF_045multi_vectorEnergyNuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%.Morgan Stanley51.1%unknownunknownin_progress
241_062multi_vectorAIBest AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment)Eric Schmidt51.0%unknownunknownpending
243_043multi_vectorAuto/TransportTesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150KPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
244_023multi_vectorLabor/JobsOver next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacementDara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
246_026multi_vectorAIIn next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman).Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
238_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
237_024multi_vectorAISkippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation).Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
247_032multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFull cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
235_014multi_vectorAISam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability.Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
231_036multi_vectorSpaceRelativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
241_016multi_vectorEnergy92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030Eric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_016multi_vectorEducationCollege premium is quickly evaporatingAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_009multi_vectorLabor/JobsTop programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AIEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_010multi_vectorMacro/EconomyIndustry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
230_044multi_vectorGeopoliticsUnrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_048multi_vectorEducationAI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_006multi_vectorMedia/AdsYouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_063multi_vectorGeopoliticsAmerica needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_026multi_vectorLabor/JobsWorld will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
247_059multi_vectorLabor/JobsAfrican nations will be impacted least by AI transitionPeter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_046multi_vectorMacro/EconomySocial unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_031multi_vectorMacro/EconomyWealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_028multi_vectorConsumerAI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_027multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDebt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_024multi_vectorReal EstateCommercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_037multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_033multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_012multi_vectorGeopoliticsAn independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_021multi_vectorMedia/AdsAI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_012multi_vectorMarkets/StocksLarge companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Salim Ismail50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_042multi_vectorConsumerWithin-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_046multi_vectorConsumerWhen Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_036multi_vectorMedia/AdsAI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
238_064multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep troubleDave Blundin50.7%unknownunknownpending
246_027multi_vectorAIAI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future).Sam Altman50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_049multi_vectorAIUnderage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't crossEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
244_035multi_vectorOtherUber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilitiesDara Khosrowshahi50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_036multi_vectorAINo frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to warEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
240_005multi_vectorAIThe organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and governmentSalim Ismail50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_047multi_vectorEducationUniversities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmenEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
247_006multi_vectorAIAnthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026Peter Diamandis50.5%unknownunknownpending
236_013multi_vectorGeopoliticsDemocrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Andrew Yang50.4%unknownunknownpending
242_019multi_vectorAuto/TransportEVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionPeter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
231_008multi_vectorAIAI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.Peter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
239_017multi_vectorOtherFuture is 80%+ likely to be greatElon Musk50.4%unknownunknownpending
235_047multi_vectorGeopoliticsAI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).Dave Blundin50.4%unknownunknownpending
230_040multi_vectorAIAI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.Peter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
240_014multi_vectorAICost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 monthsSam Altman50.3%unknownunknownpending
236_010multi_vectorMacro/Economy5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next dayAndrew Yang50.3%unknownunknownpending
243_035multi_vectorAuto/TransportAustin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averageDara Khosrowshahi50.3%unknownunknownpending
247_007multi_vectorAIAnthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027Peter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
230_034multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAbundance will be achieved by 2035.Peter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
247_060multi_vectorAIAnthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseDave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
234_021multi_vectorAIOpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027Peter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
230_005multi_vectorAITwo years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.Dave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
248_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsPrinceton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Dave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
247_030multi_vectorAIGPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillionsPeter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
240_048multi_vectorLabor/JobsSpreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this yearDave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
INF_052multi_vectorEnergyAlphabet has contracted for 500 megawatts from Kairos Power (KP-FHR fluoride-salt-cooled reactors) with targeted deployments by 2030 — the largest corporate advanced-fission procurement to date and a template for hyperscaler-utility-PPA scaling.Alphabet50.2%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_027multi_vectorAIBostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ...Nick Bostrom50.2%unknownunknownpending
241_017multi_vectorEnergyEquivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being builtEric Schmidt50.1%unknownunknownpending
240_042multi_vectorMacro/EconomyEconomy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)Elon Musk50.0%unknownunknownpending
236_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearsPeter Diamandis50.0%unknownunknownpending
236_007multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near futureAndrew Yang50.0%unknownunknownpending
236_009multi_vectorMacro/EconomyHuman billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfersAndrew Yang50.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_049multi_vectorAI/MarketsTraditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration.Jason Calacanis50.0%unknownunknownpending
COD_BIO_002multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAn AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027Codex Research Pack50.0%unknownunknownpending
247_055multi_vectorAIAcquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commonDave Blundin49.9%unknownunknownin_progress
247_047multi_vectorEnergyVertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
234_020multi_vectorAIAI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
246_046multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
241_001multi_vectorAIWe are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIEric Schmidt49.9%unknownunknownpending
244_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportIn 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesDara Khosrowshahi49.9%unknownunknownpending
236_034multi_vectorMacro/EconomyRapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/roboticsPeter Diamandis49.8%unknownunknownpending
236_030multi_vectorAIAI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and liveAndrew Yang49.8%unknownunknownpending
244_004multi_vectorAuto/TransportRace car driving will persist as a sportDara Khosrowshahi49.7%unknownunknownpending
234_023multi_vectorLabor/Jobs80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearPeter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
238_055multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMarginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Peter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_014multi_vectorAI/ComputePhysical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction.Leopold Aschenbrenner49.7%unknownunknownin_progress
247_020multi_vectorLabor/JobsJobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentDave Blundin49.6%unknownunknownpending
234_039multi_vectorReal EstateDistant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_028multi_vectorSpaceDyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
236_017multi_vectorMacro/EconomyRampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_012multi_vectorLabor/JobsCorporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
238_061multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMassive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_014multi_vectorAIRemaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_016multi_vectorAIEveryone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_020multi_vectorConsumerSmart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in).Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
238_062multi_vectorLabor/JobsIndustrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_022multi_vectorConsumerYoung people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_028multi_vectorMacro/EconomyRate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
236_004multi_vectorAIAmount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_006multi_vectorAIBy end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_045multi_vectorAISam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to winEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_025multi_vectorGeopoliticsSuper PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than beforeDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_052multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_010multi_vectorMarkets/StocksNVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar yearDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_013multi_vectorMarkets/StocksDisruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_053multi_vectorLabor/JobsWithin a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_035multi_vectorMarkets/StocksS&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 yearsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_051multi_vectorEnergySolar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robotsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_049multi_vectorMacro/EconomyW-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
234_010multi_vectorDefenseWhole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soonDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_044multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_003multi_vectorAINVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volumeDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_049multi_vectorMarkets/StocksBig AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_047multi_vectorLabor/JobsOnly 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_037multi_vectorConsumerHandmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_050multi_vectorAIAnthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_051multi_vectorAIGPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos.Peter Diamandis49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_005multi_vectorAI2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this yearEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_052multi_vectorAIFrontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
234_035multi_vectorGeopoliticsMassive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
244_036multi_vectorAIUber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing)Dara Khosrowshahi49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_008multi_vectorAIAnthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following yearDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_006multi_vectorMacro/EconomyCost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_046multi_vectorSpaceTerraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_042multi_vectorAITrillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to investDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_024multi_vectorReal EstateIsland real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values upDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
232_004multi_vectorLabor/JobsBig banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_010multi_vectorAIBy end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physicsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_012multi_vectorAIAI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_030multi_vectorGeopoliticsFDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_023multi_vectorAITernary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
AI_036multi_vectorAIReinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell...Leopold Aschenbrenner49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_023multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity45% of dementia cases are entirely preventableDr. Don Mucalem49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_037multi_vectorAIChinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weightsEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_023multi_vectorEnergy10% of US electricity will be used by data centersEric Schmidt49.4%unknownunknownpending
231_033multi_vectorSpaceData centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Peter Diamandis49.4%unknownunknownpending
246_039multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Peter Diamandis49.2%unknownunknownpending
240_049multi_vectorLabor/JobsLast jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobsDave Blundin49.2%unknownunknownpending
242_033multi_vectorLabor/JobsCompanies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Dave Blundin49.2%unknownunknownpending
244_016multi_vectorAuto/TransportAV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry todayDara Khosrowshahi49.1%unknownunknownpending
235_005multi_vectorAIAI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.Dave Blundin49.1%unknownunknownpending
AI_018multi_vectorEnergyGlobal data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average.Morgan Stanley49.1%unknownunknownin_progress
231_030multi_vectorEnergyUS AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Eric Schmidt49.1%unknownunknownpending
238_023multi_vectorAINeural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)Dave Blundin49.0%unknownunknownpending
241_012multi_vectorLabor/JobsJobs impact from AI will occur at some pointEric Schmidt48.9%unknownunknownpending
241_030multi_vectorLabor/JobsLow-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automationEric Schmidt48.9%unknownunknownpending
236_023multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 monthsAndrew Yang48.9%unknownunknownpending
236_003multi_vectorLabor/JobsJobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026Andrew Yang48.9%unknownunknownpending
243_033multi_vectorLabor/JobsAbout 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallyDara Khosrowshahi48.9%unknownunknownpending
244_003multi_vectorAuto/TransportRegulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks likeDara Khosrowshahi48.9%unknownunknownpending
240_050multi_vectorLabor/JobsUS will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a jobDave Blundin48.8%unknownunknownpending
234_005multi_vectorAIDemis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decadeDemis Hassabis48.8%unknownunknownpending
248_013multi_vectorAIModel transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.Dave Blundin48.8%unknownunknownpending
241_020multi_vectorEnergy1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEric Schmidt48.6%unknownunknownpending
248_016multi_vectorAIASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.Dave Blundin48.6%unknownunknownpending
231_029multi_vectorOtherMillisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Dave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
232_050multi_vectorAIDiscovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.Dave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
242_003multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMusk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion companyPeter Diamandis48.5%unknownunknownpending
238_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving carsDave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
238_035multi_vectorAIAI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humansPeter Diamandis48.5%unknownunknownpending
232_020multi_vectorGeopoliticsReal danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Ben Horowitz48.5%unknownunknownpending
243_040multi_vectorConsumerSuburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryDara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
243_022multi_vectorAuto/TransportCost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferatesDara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
243_032multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Dara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
243_010multi_vectorAuto/TransportHuman drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup roleDara Khosrowshahi48.3%unknownunknownpending
235_017multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.Peter Diamandis48.3%unknownunknownpending
AUT_028multi_vectorAICorporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion, and eventually to trillion-dollar data center clusters — unprecedented demand triggers desperate scramble for energy, straining entirety of American electricity production a...Leopold Aschenbrenner48.2%unknownunknownin_progress
244_031multi_vectorEnergyUber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger realityDara Khosrowshahi48.2%unknownunknownpending
246_006multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).Peter Diamandis48.1%unknownunknownpending
242_021multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs todayDave Blundin48.1%unknownunknownpending
243_006multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleetsDara Khosrowshahi48.1%unknownunknownpending
248_021multi_vectorSpaceSatellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.Dave Blundin48.0%unknownunknownpending
230_006multi_vectorAIThe frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.Peter Diamandis48.0%unknownunknownpending
INF_048multi_vectorEnergyGlobal data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets.IEA47.9%unknownunknownin_progress
235_023multi_vectorEnergyEric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Eric Schmidt47.8%unknownunknownpending
SEM_040multi_vectorFinance/CryptoBitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance.Michael Saylor47.8%unknownunknownpartial
247_038multi_vectorCryptoBitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)Michael Saylor47.8%unknownunknownpending
231_051multi_vectorCryptoEntire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.Salim Ismail47.8%unknownunknownpending
232_033multi_vectorAICryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't.Ben Horowitz47.8%unknownunknownpending
232_030multi_vectorCryptoAI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money.Ben Horowitz47.8%unknownunknownpending
241_031multi_vectorAIScientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvementEric Schmidt47.7%unknownunknownpending
243_041multi_vectorConsumerDelivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expectedDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
CYB_028multi_vectorMarkets/StocksThe 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups...Mark Cuban47.6%unknownunknownpending
229_007multi_vectorRoboticsFigure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.Brett Adcock47.6%unknownunknownpending
INF_001multi_vectorAIReaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.Leopold Aschenbrenner47.6%unknownunknownpending
243_029multi_vectorConsumerDrone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
242_040multi_vectorSpaceMars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial lifePeter Diamandis47.5%unknownunknownpending
248_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsCoding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.Dave Blundin47.5%unknownunknownpending
241_003multi_vectorAIHuman-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetEric Schmidt47.5%unknownunknownpending
229_036multi_vectorSpaceHumanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.Dave Blundin47.4%unknownunknownpending
239_003multi_vectorAIWe are currently in AI hard takeoffElon Musk47.4%unknownunknownpending
236_029multi_vectorAIRegulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulatedAndrew Yang47.2%unknownunknownpending
241_021multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAmerica can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildoutEric Schmidt47.2%unknownunknownpending
SEM_037multi_vectorLabor/JobsFor any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027).Emad Mostaque47.2%unknownunknownpartial
248_035multi_vectorMarkets/StocksComponents of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.Dave Blundin47.1%unknownunknownpending
241_033multi_vectorAIFew frontier AI companies will be in ChinaEric Schmidt47.1%unknownunknownpending
245_016multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityKitrid disease is the leading extinction driver in frogs/amphibians and can be solved with genetic engineeringBen Lamm47.0%unknownunknownpending
230_019multi_vectorMarkets/StocksThe old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.Dave Blundin47.0%unknownunknownpending
234_042multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social SecurityPeter Diamandis47.0%unknownunknownpending
244_013multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the USDara Khosrowshahi47.0%unknownunknownpending
232_031multi_vectorCryptoCrypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this.Ben Horowitz46.9%unknownunknownpending
238_011multi_vectorAIFrontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion)Peter Diamandis46.8%unknownunknownpending
240_055multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAnthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from AmazonDave Blundin46.8%unknownunknownpending
238_029multi_vectorLabor/JobsWhite-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminentlyDave Blundin46.8%unknownunknownpending
243_005multi_vectorAuto/TransportThere will be many many winners in the autonomous spaceDara Khosrowshahi46.7%unknownunknownpending
248_008multi_vectorAIJack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.Jack Dorsey46.7%unknownunknownpending
241_046multi_vectorAIGemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systemsEric Schmidt46.7%unknownunknownpending
236_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsUnnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterUnnamed tech CEO46.7%unknownunknownpending
234_046multi_vectorAIAI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humansDave Blundin46.7%unknownunknownpending
237_012multi_vectorLabor/JobsOver the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth.Alex Finn46.7%unknownunknownpending
231_009multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndia will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following.Salim Ismail46.7%unknownunknownpending
232_013multi_vectorAIRecursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.Jimmy Ba46.7%unknownunknownpending
246_025multi_vectorAISam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).Sam Altman46.7%unknownunknownpending
COD_BIO_001multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026Codex Research Pack46.6%unknownunknownpending
243_024multi_vectorAuto/TransportElectric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than owning a car (cited Diamandis research)Peter Diamandis46.6%unknownunknownpending
247_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsCompanies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesSalim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
244_007multi_vectorReal EstateVertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsDara Khosrowshahi46.6%unknownunknownpending
235_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksPE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Salim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
236_050multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPoverty level around $25K per person going forwardAndrew Yang46.6%unknownunknownpending
237_029multi_vectorAIAI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.Dave Blundin46.6%unknownunknownpending
240_034multi_vectorEnergyMorgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028Morgan Stanley46.5%unknownunknownpending
230_010multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.Dave Blundin46.5%unknownunknownpending
SPC_029multi_vectorLabor/Jobs'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency.Sam Altman46.5%unknownunknownpending
235_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityLongevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.Peter Diamandis46.5%unknownunknownpending
241_032multi_vectorAIWorld can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scaleEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
229_006multi_vectorRoboticsFigure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.Brett Adcock46.4%unknownunknownpending
240_006multi_vectorAIOpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decadesSalim Ismail46.4%unknownunknownpending
248_024multi_vectorOtherAI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Alex Wissner-Gross46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_040multi_vectorAIA Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to actEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_034multi_vectorAIOne or two frontier AI companies in EuropeEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
246_036multi_vectorAITerafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.Peter Diamandis46.4%unknownunknownpending
232_052multi_vectorMacro/EconomyLowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.Peter Diamandis46.4%unknownunknownpending
230_009multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.Elon Musk46.4%unknownunknownpending
236_035multi_vectorLabor/JobsSignificant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_006multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
244_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsAutomation will typically augment work rather than replace itDara Khosrowshahi46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_034multi_vectorAIApple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
243_031multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USDara Khosrowshahi46.3%unknownunknownpending
235_004multi_vectorLabor/JobsNext 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Dave Blundin46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_023multi_vectorAIAI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
241_039multi_vectorAIIn a year we'll know better which AI labs pull aheadEric Schmidt46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_036multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_008multi_vectorAIReal-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_011multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndependent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
229_025multi_vectorRoboticsCompetitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Brett Adcock46.3%unknownunknownpending
231_048multi_vectorAIThousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.Salim Ismail46.3%unknownunknownpending
FUT_021multi_vectorAIUncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ...Superforecaster Community46.3%unknownunknownpending
237_003multi_vectorAI12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.Alex Finn46.3%unknownunknownpending
240_020multi_vectorAINew architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAIDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
242_052multi_vectorAICost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping pointDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
238_030multi_vectorAIAI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisionsDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
230_041multi_vectorAICourse corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.Dave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
247_015multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGovernment will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencePeter Diamandis46.1%unknownunknownpending
238_065multi_vectorLabor/JobsChildren/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transitionDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
236_041multi_vectorLabor/JobsGig work like Uber will be eliminated by AIDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_032multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near termDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
240_029multi_vectorAIASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildoutDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
235_026multi_vectorMedia/AdsSnapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_011multi_vectorAINew non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
231_024multi_vectorAIGround-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_016multi_vectorAuto/TransportTV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
248_006multi_vectorAIThe Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
232_053multi_vectorAITo create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.Ben Horowitz46.1%unknownunknownpending
247_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyFirst version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
230_017multi_vectorAuto/TransportSelf-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
246_043multi_vectorSpaceEarth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
243_015multi_vectorAuto/TransportSoftware space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providersDara Khosrowshahi46.1%unknownunknownpending
247_001multi_vectorAIxAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summerPeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
230_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportIn 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.Peter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
238_013multi_vectorAIFrontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advancePeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
INF_012multi_vectorEnergyAI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030.Morgan Stanley46.0%unknownunknownpending
232_025multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMassive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Elon Musk46.0%unknownunknownpending
232_042multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI.Salim Ismail45.9%unknownunknownpending
INF_029multi_vectorMacro/EconomyEnterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporations will pay data-center operators directly for finalized outcomes (optimized supply chains, completed legal briefs, delivered marketing campaigns) rat...Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang45.9%unknownunknownpartial
234_031multi_vectorAuto/TransportOnly 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 millionDave Blundin45.9%unknownunknownpending
235_021multi_vectorAuto/TransportZipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Zipline45.9%unknownunknownpending
239_025multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI will solve back painElon Musk45.9%unknownunknownpending
232_009multi_vectorAIStartups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.Ben Horowitz45.8%unknownunknownpending
235_001multi_vectorAIAnthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.Dave Blundin45.8%unknownunknownpending
242_002multi_vectorSpaceLong-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass driversPeter Diamandis45.8%unknownunknownpending
247_036multi_vectorAIGoogle's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029Google45.8%unknownunknownpending
244_027multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasksDara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
240_035multi_vectorEnergyMeta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035Meta45.7%unknownunknownpending
247_016multi_vectorMacro/EconomyHuge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesignSalim Ismail45.7%unknownunknownpending
244_026multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Dara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
242_053multi_vectorAuto/TransportNew car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilizationSalim Ismail45.6%unknownunknownpending
242_039multi_vectorSpaceNASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on MarsJared Isaacman (NASA administrator)45.5%unknownunknownpending
247_009multi_vectorAIAnthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026Dave Blundin45.5%unknownunknownpending
INF_056multi_vectorEnergyHelion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment.Sam Altman45.5%unknownunknownpending
235_025multi_vectorMarkets/StocksNvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.Dave Blundin45.5%unknownunknownpending
SEM_035multi_vectorAI/CognitionWorld-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).Eric Schmidt45.5%unknownunknownpending
232_007multi_vectorMedia/AdsTikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
230_050multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOne of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
231_023multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
231_045multi_vectorAICorporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
232_015multi_vectorAIAI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
233_014multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityOver the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
235_009multi_vectorDefenseAnthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
235_034multi_vectorConsumerNext-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
237_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsThere will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization.Alex Finn45.4%unknownunknownpending
237_017multi_vectorMarkets/StocksThe entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.Alex Finn45.4%unknownunknownpending
240_009multi_vectorGeopoliticsGovernment will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMCDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
240_019multi_vectorAIPost-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a yearDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
241_013multi_vectorAIAgents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effectsEric Schmidt45.4%unknownunknownpending
242_025multi_vectorReal Estate60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parksDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
246_022multi_vectorAIClaude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).PolyMarket45.4%unknownunknownpending
246_024multi_vectorAISomething really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
247_004multi_vectorAIMusk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversionsDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
247_028multi_vectorAIMusk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departingDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
248_050multi_vectorAIOpus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters.Alex Wissner-Gross45.4%unknownunknownpending
SEM_021multi_vectorAI/ChinaLargest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpartial
241_022multi_vectorMacro/EconomyData center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growthEric Schmidt45.4%unknownunknownpending
234_002multi_vectorAIWithin 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
239_006multi_vectorAIAI will solve everything including longevityElon Musk45.4%unknownunknownpending
236_044multi_vectorEducationUniversities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveSalim Ismail45.3%unknownunknownpending
240_041multi_vectorAIConsumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next yearDave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
244_017multi_vectorAuto/TransportIlia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass productionDara Khosrowshahi45.3%unknownunknownpending
240_022multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAll five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollarsDave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_054multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Peter Diamandis45.3%unknownunknownpending
235_007multi_vectorGeopoliticsAI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.Dave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_045multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possibleAlex Wissner-Gross45.3%unknownunknownpending
234_015multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAnthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 monthsPeter Diamandis45.3%unknownunknownpending
247_010multi_vectorAIAnthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectoryDave Blundin45.2%unknownunknownpending
245_008multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMore direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and RemusBen Lamm45.2%unknownunknownpartial
245_039multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal has not yet started work on dinosaurs, corals, dragons or PokemonBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_036multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal will continue seeding and spinning out new companies from scientific discoveriesBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_041multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal will build a living lab in UAE in addition to BiovaultBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_021multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEngineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over timeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_001multi_vectorBiotech/LongevitySynthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human historyBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_043multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface areaBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_031multi_vectorOtherFuture is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI eraSalim Ismail45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_030multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityHumans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental changeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_020multi_vectorOtherScreworm will decimate US cattle and bison industryBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
SPC_002multi_vectorMarkets/StocksA SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o...Morgan Stanley45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_007multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal will bring back the woolly mammothBen Lamm44.9%unknownunknownpending
238_047multi_vectorEnergyUS will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solarEmad Mostaque44.9%unknownunknownpending
241_058multi_vectorLabor/JobsHigh-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automationEric Schmidt44.9%unknownunknownpending
236_005multi_vectorLabor/JobsAnthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 yearsDario Amodei / Anthropic44.9%unknownunknownpending
232_028multi_vectorLabor/JobsIn AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong.Ben Horowitz44.9%unknownunknownpending
234_034multi_vectorLabor/JobsAndrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 yearsAndrew Yang44.9%unknownunknownpending
243_045multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel timeDara Khosrowshahi44.9%unknownunknownpending
232_027multi_vectorLabor/JobsEntry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.Ben Horowitz44.9%unknownunknownpending
242_006multi_vectorAITerafab will reach 70% of TSMC's outputPeter Diamandis44.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_001multi_vectorAIBy 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.Sam Altman44.8%unknownunknownpending
241_057multi_vectorRoboticsElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk44.8%unknownunknownpending
238_019multi_vectorLabor/JobsJevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automatedDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
235_042multi_vectorMarkets/StocksOpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.Peter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
238_025multi_vectorAIAI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human levelEmad Mostaque44.7%unknownunknownpending
247_049multi_vectorEnergySolar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsAlex Wissner-Gross44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_017multi_vectorAuto/TransportSelf-driving will become 95-97% safer than human drivingDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_059multi_vectorAuto/TransportSelf-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantagesDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
234_030multi_vectorAuto/TransportAuto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-drivingDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
244_001multi_vectorAuto/TransportTechnology will always be a part of the human driving experienceDara Khosrowshahi44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_054multi_vectorAITerafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500BPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
245_009multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorptionPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
246_045multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Peter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
246_055multi_vectorAIWe WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.Dave Blundin44.6%unknownunknownpending
240_025multi_vectorAITesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per monthPeter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
234_008multi_vectorLabor/JobsWorkflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loopSalim Ismail44.6%unknownunknownpending
238_048multi_vectorGeopoliticsUS must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Eric Schmidt44.6%unknownunknownpending
243_012multi_vectorAuto/TransportLiability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_025multi_vectorAuto/TransportMiddle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deploymentDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_023multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and deliveryDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_021multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own carDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_020multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries Uber operates in)Dara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_019multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come downDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportFleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due to 10+ year avg car lifeDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_011multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous driver will be much safer than a human beingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
244_011multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous transportation will eventually make transportation cheaperDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_008multi_vectorAuto/TransportStreets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tiredDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_007multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplaceDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
244_009multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous insurance will have multiple layers: AV provider coverage plus additional layersDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_001multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_047multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous revolution will have even more impact on society than UberDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
244_005multi_vectorAuto/TransportFewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horseDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
243_004multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safeDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
247_050multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityVirtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computingAlex Wissner-Gross44.4%unknownunknownpending
231_027multi_vectorOtherAlgorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments.Salim Ismail44.4%unknownunknownpending
245_033multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environmentsBen Lamm44.3%unknownunknownpending
232_060multi_vectorAIWe'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.Alex Wissner-Gross44.3%unknownunknownpending
236_037multi_vectorAuto/TransportTransportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access modelSalim Ismail44.2%unknownunknownpending
238_046multi_vectorEnergyxAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleGwynne Shotwell / xAI44.1%unknownunknownpending
243_026multi_vectorAuto/TransportExciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)Dara Khosrowshahi44.1%unknownunknownpending
238_007multi_vectorAIThere will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startupsEric Schmidt44.1%unknownunknownpending
231_038multi_vectorAITSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.Dave Blundin44.0%unknownunknownpending
236_019multi_vectorRoboticsHuman plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerAndrew Yang44.0%unknownunknownpending
234_001multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndia will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineSalim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
241_042multi_vectorGeopoliticsPost-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceEric Schmidt43.9%unknownunknownpending
231_010multi_vectorGeopoliticsChina has peaked and is going to be on descent.Salim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
242_001multi_vectorAIElon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionElon Musk43.9%unknownunknownpending
229_004multi_vectorGeopoliticsBy summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.Brett Adcock43.8%unknownunknownpending
239_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk43.7%unknownunknownpending
234_024multi_vectorLabor/JobsFinancial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisSalim Ismail43.7%unknownunknownpending
232_012multi_vectorGeopoliticsUS-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.Ben Horowitz43.7%unknownunknownpending
237_022multi_vectorAIAlex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.Alex Finn43.7%unknownunknownpending
239_002multi_vectorAIAI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestElon Musk43.6%unknownunknownpending
236_042multi_vectorAuto/TransportInsurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD maturesSalim Ismail43.5%unknownunknownpending
238_026multi_vectorAIEvery attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerantAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
229_040multi_vectorRoboticsWhen Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data.Dave Blundin43.5%unknownunknownpending
243_038multi_vectorLabor/JobsCapital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers)Dara Khosrowshahi43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_011multi_vectorAIAI agents will have voices in the near future.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_046multi_vectorAIOver the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_047multi_vectorAISolving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
246_023multi_vectorAIGrok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.PolyMarket43.5%unknownunknownpending
232_029multi_vectorLabor/JobsEntry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_027multi_vectorAIWe are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_001multi_vectorAIA billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_013multi_vectorMacro/EconomyOver 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_031multi_vectorAIWe are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_016multi_vectorMarkets/StocksA specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
238_039multi_vectorAIApple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next yearAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_029multi_vectorAICognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
234_006multi_vectorAIOver the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solvedAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_032multi_vectorAIPSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_028multi_vectorAIArtisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_046multi_vectorMedia/AdsPublic interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two daysAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
INF_057multi_vectorEnergyHelion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors.Sam Altman43.4%unknownunknownpending
241_008multi_vectorAIAI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possibleEric Schmidt43.4%unknownunknownpending
242_014multi_vectorAuto/TransportHuman driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening outSalim Ismail43.3%unknownunknownpending
241_038multi_vectorAIChinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredEric Schmidt43.3%unknownunknownpending
230_046multi_vectorAIOpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public.Dave Blundin43.3%unknownunknownpending
232_038multi_vectorSpaceLunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity.Alex Wissner-Gross43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_024multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEveryone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest personElon Musk43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_016multi_vectorLabor/JobsTesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
IND_010multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAutonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...Jared Isaacman43.2%unknownunknownin_progress
236_049multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS GDP per capita growing up up up because of AIAndrew Yang43.2%unknownunknownpending
242_046multi_vectorAICustom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvementsDave Blundin43.2%unknownunknownpending
239_007multi_vectorAIHumans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar systemElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
237_010multi_vectorCryptoIn the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Alex Finn43.1%unknownunknownpending
232_032multi_vectorCryptoCrypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Ben Horowitz43.1%unknownunknownpending
246_053multi_vectorAIASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.Dave Blundin42.9%unknownunknownpending
238_068multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)Mark Pack Donovan42.9%unknownunknownpending
237_005multi_vectorMarkets/StocksApple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Alex Finn42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyInvasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
SEM_030multi_vectorCapital MarketsS&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).Mike Wilson42.8%unknownunknownpending
248_043multi_vectorRoboticsFull sewing/stitching automation likely within six months.Dave Blundin42.7%unknownunknownpending
243_027multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi42.7%unknownunknownpending
246_010multi_vectorMarkets/StocksSpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.Peter Diamandis42.7%unknownunknownpending
247_048multi_vectorEnergyBattery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarAlex Wissner-Gross42.7%unknownunknownpending
244_006multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking offDara Khosrowshahi42.7%unknownunknownpending
INF_007multi_vectorAIOpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age.Alex Wissner-Gross42.6%unknownunknownpending
229_015multi_vectorRoboticsThe current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.Brett Adcock42.6%unknownunknownpending
245_023multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunityBen Lamm42.5%unknownunknownpending
245_004multi_vectorConsumerEY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annuallyEY (Ernst & Young)42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_014multi_vectorLabor/JobsPublicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quicklyAndrew Yang42.5%unknownunknownpending
244_024multi_vectorLabor/JobsHopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upDara Khosrowshahi42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_040multi_vectorLabor/JobsCEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationAndrew Yang42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_025multi_vectorReal EstateSuburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homesAndrew Yang42.4%unknownunknownpending
234_013multi_vectorMarkets/StocksExtrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Dave Blundin42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_051multi_vectorLabor/JobsAfter first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
238_042multi_vectorConsumerIris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_039multi_vectorGeopoliticsAI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Salim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_039multi_vectorLabor/JobsAny company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularitySalim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
237_014multi_vectorLabor/JobsAccountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Unnamed friend (accountant manager)42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_022multi_vectorMarkets/StocksDeepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
232_005multi_vectorLabor/JobsBig enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Ben Horowitz42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_045multi_vectorConsumerMost volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
230_026multi_vectorConsumerThe QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
234_050multi_vectorAIOpen-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilitiesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
246_044multi_vectorAITwo outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years.Dave Blundin42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_036multi_vectorAIAI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
245_035multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityGene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled backBen Lamm42.3%unknownunknownpending
234_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityElement Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_015multi_vectorAIPost-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's playAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_032multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFirst-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityPersonalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_049multi_vectorAIHumans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
242_050multi_vectorRoboticsHumanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chainDave Blundin42.2%unknownunknownpending
232_054multi_vectorAISSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
234_037multi_vectorGeopoliticsCivilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_016multi_vectorAISuper intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
231_007multi_vectorAIAI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
237_007multi_vectorAIEvery other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.Alex Finn42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_043multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityA mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years awayAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_002multi_vectorAIWay more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyEra of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdSalim Ismail42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_001multi_vectorAISocietal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
IND_007multi_vectorLabor/JobsMassive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a...Dave Blundin42.1%unknownunknownpending
INF_014multi_vectorEnergyData-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance.Morgan Stanley42.0%unknownunknownpending
IND_027multi_vectorLabor/JobsOngoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum...Eric Schmidt42.0%unknownunknownpending
242_029multi_vectorLabor/JobsTypical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
238_053multi_vectorMacro/EconomyInnovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
234_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsConsulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
238_037multi_vectorAINetwork effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover)Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
240_033multi_vectorAIAI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeksSalim Ismail41.9%unknownunknownpending
230_003multi_vectorAIAI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
232_044multi_vectorAIThere will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
246_011multi_vectorAIElon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
238_070multi_vectorAISmall language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
231_054multi_vectorLabor/JobsUncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
238_051multi_vectorMarkets/StocksIf Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
231_017multi_vectorAIA major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
240_026multi_vectorMarkets/StocksElon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companyDave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
243_034multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human drivingDara Khosrowshahi41.8%unknownunknownpending
247_052multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterDave Blundin41.8%unknownunknownpending
232_022multi_vectorMacro/EconomyTriple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.Ben Horowitz41.8%unknownunknownpending
231_042multi_vectorLabor/JobsJob loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy.Salim Ismail41.8%unknownunknownpending
235_046multi_vectorGeopoliticsWindow of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely.Dave Blundin41.7%unknownunknownpending
238_052multi_vectorMarkets/Stocks$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Elon Musk41.7%unknownunknownpending
238_021multi_vectorAIMath, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AIAlex Wissner-Gross41.7%unknownunknownpending
236_002multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUBI must come before UHI as an intermediate stepAndrew Yang41.7%unknownunknownpending
232_039multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
230_038multi_vectorAIAI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
247_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityVirtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
238_057multi_vectorMacro/EconomyLaws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundanceAlex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
243_017multi_vectorAuto/TransportCost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearsDara Khosrowshahi41.6%unknownunknownpending
238_060multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksEmad Mostaque41.5%unknownunknownpending
242_036multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compressesDave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
240_002multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAmazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIADave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
240_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksNVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being flooredDave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
246_028multi_vectorAIBroad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed.Alex Wissner-Gross41.5%unknownunknownpending
238_002multi_vectorAIRising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insightsUnknown41.5%unknownunknownpending
244_012multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointDara Khosrowshahi41.5%unknownunknownpending
SPC_022multi_vectorAI'2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c...Kevin Weil41.4%unknownunknownin_progress
245_014multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered speciesBen Lamm41.3%unknownunknownpending
237_020multi_vectorAIThe hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_001multi_vectorAIAnthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_016multi_vectorAIPermissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
247_024multi_vectorLabor/JobsVoters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AIDave Blundin41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_025multi_vectorAIEvery frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
247_011multi_vectorAIOpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billionAlex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
235_041multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAnthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.Dave Blundin41.3%unknownunknownpending
237_009multi_vectorAIChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
237_008multi_vectorConsumerApp stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
245_038multi_vectorConsumerPeople buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Ben Lamm41.3%unknownunknownpending
234_048multi_vectorAINext major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language modelsAlex Wissner-Gross41.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_007multi_vectorAIAnthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.Dario Amodei41.2%unknownunknownpending
234_017multi_vectorAIOpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeksOpenAI Codex Lead41.2%unknownunknownpending
238_067multi_vectorEnergyUS power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocationDave Blundin41.2%unknownunknownpending
246_040multi_vectorAuto/TransportIn cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model).Salim Ismail41.1%unknownunknownpending
247_057multi_vectorAIParameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parametersAlex Wissner-Gross41.1%unknownunknownpending
243_013multi_vectorAuto/TransportEvery new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwareDara Khosrowshahi41.0%unknownunknownpending
245_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026Ben Lamm41.0%unknownunknownpending
245_006multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombsBen Lamm41.0%unknownunknownpending
239_023multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk40.9%unknownunknownpending
240_013multi_vectorAISam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMsSam Altman40.9%unknownunknownpending
247_021multi_vectorLabor/JobsNet job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomeratesAlex Wissner-Gross40.9%unknownunknownpending
230_036multi_vectorLabor/JobsNew job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.Alex Wissner-Gross40.9%unknownunknownpending
237_027multi_vectorLabor/Jobs100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy.Alex Finn40.9%unknownunknownpending
243_028multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)Dara Khosrowshahi40.9%unknownunknownpending
244_010multi_vectorRoboticsMachines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance ratesDara Khosrowshahi40.9%unknownunknownpending
247_023multi_vectorAIAI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyDave Blundin40.8%unknownunknownpartial
237_023multi_vectorAIBaby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.Alex Wissner-Gross40.7%unknownunknownpending
238_066multi_vectorEnergyPete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsPete (audience, data center builder)40.7%unknownunknownpending
237_006multi_vectorAIOver the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits.Alex Finn40.6%unknownunknownpending
236_045multi_vectorGeopoliticsGovernment path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028Andrew Yang40.6%unknownunknownpending
243_016multi_vectorAuto/TransportAutonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMsDara Khosrowshahi40.6%unknownunknownpending
243_036multi_vectorAuto/TransportPrice of rides will come down with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_015multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal could theoretically create Pikachu (engineer novel designer organisms)Ben Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_026multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal editing tech will be applicable to human healthcare (spun out/licensed)Ben Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_029multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityIVF will be transformed by Colossal's hydrogel/microfluidics embryo tech and new grading scaleBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
239_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBen Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creatureBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_034multi_vectorOtherWolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methodsBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_032multi_vectorOtherAnti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_013multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityArtificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction speciesBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_031multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadlyBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
240_052multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityUploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the futureAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
238_050multi_vectorOtherSci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck closeAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_010multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
229_024multi_vectorRoboticsFigure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve.Brett Adcock40.5%unknownunknownpending
234_047multi_vectorAIAgents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 servicesAlex Wissner-Gross40.5%unknownunknownpending
229_042multi_vectorAIFigure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.Brett Adcock40.4%unknownunknownpending
238_032multi_vectorLabor/JobsEnd-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall'Alex Wissner-Gross40.3%unknownunknownpending
239_004multi_vectorAIxAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026Elon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_013multi_vectorAIA 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher.Leopold Aschenbrenner40.2%unknownunknownpending
234_026multi_vectorAIAI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in monthsAlex Wissner-Gross40.2%unknownunknownpending
237_021multi_vectorCryptoAlex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously.Alex Finn40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsTesla output per employee will become very very highElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_032multi_vectorAIProgress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curvesElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
229_043multi_vectorRoboticsFigure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.Brett Adcock40.1%unknownunknownpending
238_006multi_vectorLabor/JobsCoders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Emad Mostaque40.1%unknownunknownpending
242_027multi_vectorAuto/TransportHyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humansSalim Ismail40.0%unknownunknownpending
231_049multi_vectorCryptoIf privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised).Alex Wissner-Gross40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_032multi_vectorAIFigure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.Brett Adcock40.0%unknownunknownpending
242_008multi_vectorEnergyDyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedDave Blundin40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_003multi_vectorRoboticsFigure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Brett Adcock39.9%unknownunknownpending
244_028multi_vectorMacro/EconomyLabor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move inDara Khosrowshahi39.7%unknownunknownpending
237_018multi_vectorAIWe are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
230_008multi_vectorAIAI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
230_042multi_vectorAIA pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'.Salim Ismail39.6%unknownunknownpending
232_056multi_vectorAIEvery single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
231_004multi_vectorAIThe solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
230_024multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityUnder a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Dave Blundin39.6%unknownunknownpending
243_014multi_vectorAuto/Transport10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowDara Khosrowshahi39.5%unknownunknownpending
238_022multi_vectorAIFrom here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over)Alex Wissner-Gross39.5%unknownunknownpending
239_029multi_vectorAIIntelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on EarthElon Musk39.5%unknownunknownpending
234_019multi_vectorAIExpect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeksAlex Wissner-Gross39.4%unknownunknownpending
247_027multi_vectorAIFrontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendorAlex Wissner-Gross39.4%unknownunknownpending
245_045multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal considers Colossal platform core will stay focused on biodiversity and de-extinctionBen Lamm39.4%unknownunknownpending
230_007multi_vectorRoboticsLobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Alex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
245_022multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunityBen Lamm39.3%unknownunknownpending
231_019multi_vectorOtherFeynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Alex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
238_005multi_vectorAIBy September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly freeAlex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
243_037multi_vectorLabor/JobsDrivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehiclesDara Khosrowshahi39.3%unknownunknownpending
235_030multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Ray Kurzweil39.2%unknownunknownpending
233_010multi_vectorEducationAlpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years.Joe Liemandt39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEnhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
234_041multi_vectorOther50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
230_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsFor the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_026multi_vectorOtherOrganized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
233_003multi_vectorEducationAny student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.MacKenzie Price39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_011multi_vectorDefensePentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
233_018multi_vectorEducationAlpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Joe Liemandt39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_009multi_vectorDefensePentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
230_039multi_vectorEducationEducational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
230_032multi_vectorGeopoliticsNear future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
238_069multi_vectorGeopoliticsThe path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_054multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
243_039multi_vectorRoboticsUber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, MannaDara Khosrowshahi39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_016multi_vectorAIEnterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capexAlex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_031multi_vectorAISamsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by ElonAlex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_045multi_vectorGeopoliticsWhite House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
246_048multi_vectorAIAnthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAlex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_025multi_vectorOtherReligion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
241_041multi_vectorAIBiological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangersEric Schmidt38.9%unknownunknownpending
INF_004multi_vectorGeopoliticsChina has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty awaiting compute — such that if export controls relax or are bypassed, China has near-immediate physical capacity to train frontier models equivalent to Anth...Jensen Huang38.9%unknownunknownpartial
234_044multi_vectorAIIntelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQSalim Ismail38.8%unknownunknownpending
247_035multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeDario Amodei38.8%unknownunknownpending
235_031multi_vectorMarkets/StocksEli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.Alex Wissner-Gross38.8%unknownunknownpending
INF_050multi_vectorEnergyWithin approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely.Jensen Huang38.7%unknownunknownin_progress
233_021multi_vectorAIAI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.Joe Liemandt38.7%unknownunknownpending
245_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBen Lamm38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_047multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFrontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross38.7%unknownunknownpending
244_025multi_vectorLabor/JobsOpen question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceDara Khosrowshahi38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_028multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI could automate 25% of US work hoursGoldman Sachs38.7%unknownunknownpending
236_032multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI has chance of fixing poverty globallyAndrew Yang38.7%unknownunknownpending
248_047multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMemory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
248_027multi_vectorOtherReligion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.Dave Blundin38.6%unknownunknownpending
230_045multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
240_024multi_vectorAIAdvanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionateMarc Andreessen38.6%unknownunknownpending
235_018multi_vectorLabor/JobsSingle-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
236_039multi_vectorEnergyData centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersAlex Wissner-Gross38.5%unknownunknownpending
229_026multi_vectorRoboticsBy next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.Brett Adcock38.5%unknownunknownpending
238_012multi_vectorAIOpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel PrizesKevin Weil38.5%unknownunknownpending
238_014multi_vectorAIEverything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical worldAlex Wissner-Gross38.5%unknownunknownpending
234_040multi_vectorReal EstateElon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in AmericaElon Musk38.4%unknownunknownpending
232_035multi_vectorMarkets/StocksApple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models.Alex Wissner-Gross38.4%unknownunknownpending
240_058multi_vectorAIOpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plansAlex Wissner-Gross38.3%unknownunknownpending
241_051multi_vectorAIAI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new thingsEric Schmidt38.3%unknownunknownpending
240_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
238_063multi_vectorLabor/JobsAutomating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
246_041multi_vectorEnergyData centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross38.2%unknownunknownpending
247_002multi_vectorAIMusk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profitAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
237_030multi_vectorAILobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
235_010multi_vectorAIPlugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
234_051multi_vectorConsumerClaude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmakingAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
234_018multi_vectorAIGPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeksAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
246_021multi_vectorAIGPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
247_053multi_vectorCryptoAI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using itAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
230_004multi_vectorAIWe are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
238_034multi_vectorAISoftware developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumersAndrej Karpathy38.1%unknownunknownpending
244_015multi_vectorAuto/TransportAV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industryDara Khosrowshahi38.1%unknownunknownpending
240_040multi_vectorMacro/EconomyElon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desireElon Musk37.9%unknownunknownpending
248_002multi_vectorSpaceLEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
233_006multi_vectorAICost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.Joe Liemandt37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_011multi_vectorAIJury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_058multi_vectorAISolving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_003multi_vectorAIWithin 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAlex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_037multi_vectorSpaceBootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_007multi_vectorAIKevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AIKevin Weil37.9%unknownunknownpending
247_029multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityOpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma companyAlex Wissner-Gross37.8%unknownunknownpending
245_040multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBiovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnershipsBen Lamm37.8%unknownunknownpending
246_042multi_vectorAIOn 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross37.8%unknownunknownpending
241_025multi_vectorSpaceElon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsElon Musk37.8%unknownunknownpending
240_007multi_vectorGeopoliticsRegulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIADave Blundin37.8%unknownunknownpending
246_017multi_vectorSpaceEuropa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Peter Diamandis37.7%unknownunknownpending
239_001multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGlobal economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk37.7%unknownunknownpending
242_034multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Chamath Palihapitiya37.7%unknownunknownpending
INF_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC.Demis Hassabis37.7%unknownunknownpending
231_040multi_vectorMacro/EconomyIreland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation.Alex Wissner-Gross37.7%unknownunknownpending
244_002multi_vectorAuto/TransportHumans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)Dara Khosrowshahi37.6%unknownunknownpending
233_015multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityInfinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Peter Diamandis37.6%unknownunknownpending
233_012multi_vectorAIAI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.Joe Liemandt37.5%unknownunknownpending
230_023multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityReversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
232_048multi_vectorSpaceEarth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
245_037multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not)Ben Lamm37.5%unknownunknownpending
AI_019multi_vectorMarkets/StocksCopper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets.Chamath Palihapitiya37.3%unknownunknownin_progress
246_003multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGlobal economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Elon Musk37.3%unknownunknownpending
248_009multi_vectorMacro/EconomyElon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk37.3%unknownunknownpending
242_045multi_vectorAIAI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economyAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
236_043multi_vectorEducationUniversities will become largest incubators on the planetAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
238_024multi_vectorAIAI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras)Emad Mostaque37.2%unknownunknownpending
242_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportHuman driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstractionAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
239_030multi_vectorMacro/Economy1000x current economy would saturate human desiresElon Musk36.9%unknownunknownpending
247_056multi_vectorLabor/JobsNet job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going awayAlex Wissner-Gross36.9%unknownunknownpending
248_018multi_vectorLabor/JobsYoung software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months.Alex Wissner-Gross36.9%unknownunknownpending
233_011multi_vectorEducationGovernment ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Joe Liemandt36.7%unknownunknownpending
248_033multi_vectorAISuperhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.Dave Blundin36.7%unknownunknownpending
242_030multi_vectorLabor/JobsNear-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobsAlex Wissner-Gross36.7%unknownunknownpending
239_010multi_vectorSpaceMass driver on the moon within 10 yearsElon Musk36.7%unknownunknownpending
248_007multi_vectorAIWe will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.Alex Wissner-Gross36.6%unknownunknownpending
238_001multi_vectorAICost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more peopleUnknown36.6%unknownunknownpending
246_019multi_vectorSpaceInterstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans.Alex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
242_041multi_vectorSpaceUnited Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similarAlex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
230_002multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.Alex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
245_017multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDisease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollarsBen Lamm36.4%unknownunknownpending
242_048multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidenceAlex Wissner-Gross36.4%unknownunknownpending
235_043multi_vectorDefenseAnthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Salim Ismail36.3%unknownunknownpending
239_028multi_vectorEnergyIntelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleElon Musk36.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_006multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityExpert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade.Dario Amodei36.2%unknownunknownpending
242_031multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsPeter Diamandis36.1%unknownunknownpending
INF_023multi_vectorRoboticsData-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and robotic-assembly systems with minimal human intervention — necessary because human labor supply is insufficient to build at trillion-dollar buildout velocity.Ben Lamm36.1%unknownunknownpending
IND_020multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMassive 'rerating' of Biotech industry — by 2026, generative biology achieves its 'De Novo' moment where an AI-designed drug candidate triggers multi-billion-dollar partnerships; AI expands Total Addressable Market (TAM) of gene editing by 100x, moving...Morgan Stanley36.1%unknownunknownpending
247_014multi_vectorGeopoliticsPoliticization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross36.1%unknownunknownpending
246_018multi_vectorEnergyKiller app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
COD_AI_004multi_vectorAIFrontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027Codex Research Pack36.0%unknownunknownpending
240_004multi_vectorAIA new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutesAlex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
239_005multi_vectorAIAI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degreeElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
239_022multi_vectorAIFuture AI will care about power/mass rather than human currencyElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
241_043multi_vectorAIASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadePeter Diamandis35.9%unknownunknownin_progress
229_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksThe humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor.Brett Adcock35.8%unknownunknownpending
230_043multi_vectorCryptoThe economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'.Alex Wissner-Gross35.6%unknownunknownpending
246_016multi_vectorSpaceDragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Peter Diamandis35.6%unknownunknownpending
233_009multi_vectorEducationA motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.Joe Liemandt35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_047multi_vectorRoboticsPhysical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AIAlex Wissner-Gross35.5%unknownunknownpending
238_008multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMany incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-stateSalim Ismail35.5%unknownunknownpending
232_055multi_vectorAIWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.Peter Diamandis35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_017multi_vectorEnergyOptimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutSalim Ismail35.4%unknownunknownpending
231_013multi_vectorAIMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
234_038multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
247_017multi_vectorMacro/EconomySome form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
235_037multi_vectorAIAuto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
235_015multi_vectorAIGPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
244_029multi_vectorEnergyCombustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentDara Khosrowshahi35.4%unknownunknownpending
241_035multi_vectorAIMaybe one frontier AI company in IndiaEric Schmidt35.3%unknownunknownpending
INF_047multi_vectorMacro/Economy2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex.Chamath Palihapitiya35.3%unknownunknownpending
237_019multi_vectorAICode generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.Alex Wissner-Gross35.2%unknownunknownpending
238_036multi_vectorMedia/AdsManus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisersEmad Mostaque35.2%unknownunknownpending
240_018multi_vectorAITrillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicornAlex Wissner-Gross35.2%unknownunknownpending
242_044multi_vectorAIBase AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stackAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
236_036multi_vectorMacro/EconomyHyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economyAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
236_001multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
239_021multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
240_021multi_vectorAIPost-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUsAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
246_034multi_vectorAIThousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law.Alex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
245_002multi_vectorAIEvery company should or will be an AI companyBen Lamm35.1%unknownunknownpending
238_027multi_vectorAIOpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW frictionAlex Wissner-Gross35.0%unknownunknownpending
IND_008multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity2026 era characterized as building a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' — AI enables 'biological freedom', giving humanity insights to cure complex diseases (cancer, Alzheimer's) and rapidly extend healthy human lifespan over the coming decade; same...Dario Amodei35.0%unknownunknownpending
248_029multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityRegime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason.Alex Wissner-Gross34.9%unknownunknownpending
234_043multi_vectorEducationHarvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueAlex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
233_019multi_vectorEducationAlpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Joe Liemandt34.8%unknownunknownpending
234_025multi_vectorRoboticsRent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robotsAlex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
232_057multi_vectorRoboticsFirst person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Dave Blundin34.8%unknownunknownpending
235_035multi_vectorAIApple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
234_004multi_vectorAIMistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAIAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_071multi_vectorAIFuture AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughsAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
242_043multi_vectorAIAI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-stateAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_057multi_vectorAIOpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategyAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_038multi_vectorAICompute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetizedAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
246_032multi_vectorAIClaude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood.Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
246_031multi_vectorAINext OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents.Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_030multi_vectorGeopoliticsTesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
230_020multi_vectorAuto/TransportPeter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Peter Diamandis34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_012multi_vectorAINeutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_033multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMeta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
233_004multi_vectorAIAI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months.Joe Liemandt34.7%unknownunknownpending
247_003multi_vectorAISettlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPOAlex Wissner-Gross34.6%unknownunknownpending
243_009multi_vectorAuto/TransportRegulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably superiorDara Khosrowshahi34.6%unknownunknownpending
245_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityNorthern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombsBen Lamm34.5%unknownunknownpending
231_003multi_vectorAIMulti-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.Alex Wissner-Gross34.5%unknownunknownpending
247_026multi_vectorAIAnthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agentsAlex Wissner-Gross34.5%unknownunknownpending
232_024multi_vectorMacro/EconomySan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Alex Wissner-Gross34.3%unknownunknownpending
240_036multi_vectorEnergyTEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Peter Diamandis34.3%unknownunknownpending
245_024multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)Ben Lamm34.2%unknownunknownpending
232_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownpending
246_033multi_vectorAIInsecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_022multi_vectorAIAGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling.Elon Musk34.2%unknownunknownpending
242_023multi_vectorMacro/EconomyWorld will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin34.2%unknownunknownpending
246_030multi_vectorMarkets/StocksDeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.Alex Wissner-Gross34.1%unknownunknownpending
242_055multi_vectorMarkets/StocksActivist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
247_005multi_vectorMarkets/StocksHarvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
239_027multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDiamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk34.0%unknownunknownpending
238_040multi_vectorAIGoogle may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OSAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
248_048multi_vectorAIAI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm.Alex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
231_015multi_vectorAINext Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.Alex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
248_034multi_vectorMarkets/StocksCapital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Salim Ismail34.0%unknownunknownpending
236_038multi_vectorEducationUniversities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesAlex Wissner-Gross33.2%unknownunknownpending
238_058multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAbundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearsSalim Ismail33.0%unknownunknownpending
248_014multi_vectorAIIf China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.Alex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
247_012multi_vectorAIThe bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improvingAlex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
233_008multi_vectorEducationPublic school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.Joe Liemandt32.3%unknownunknownpending
246_009multi_vectorMarkets/StocksSpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need.Alex Wissner-Gross32.1%unknownunknownpending
230_035multi_vectorMacro/EconomyGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Alex Wissner-Gross32.0%unknownunknownpending
232_040multi_vectorAINick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.Nick Bostrom31.7%unknownunknownpending
238_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon SystemsAlex Wissner-Gross31.7%unknownunknownpending
242_020multi_vectorAuto/TransportCybercab to be priced at approximately $30KElon Musk31.4%unknownunknownpending
235_024multi_vectorEnergyIn 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.Alex Wissner-Gross31.4%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_002multi_vectorAIBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.Sam Altman31.4%unknownunknownpending
238_028multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAnthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Emad Mostaque31.2%unknownunknownpending
248_010multi_vectorAIAI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).Dave Blundin31.0%unknownunknownpending
239_009multi_vectorSpacePeople will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk30.9%unknownunknownpending
230_022multi_vectorRoboticsElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk30.7%unknownunknownpending
238_056multi_vectorMacro/EconomyCapital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history)Alex Wissner-Gross30.1%unknownunknownpending
SEM_009multi_vectorEconomyThe AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+).Mark Cuban30.0%unknownunknownpending
232_047multi_vectorSpaceMass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Elon Musk30.0%unknownunknownpending
245_003multi_vectorMarkets/StocksColossal's $10B valuation is massively undervaluedBen Lamm29.8%unknownunknownpending
234_036multi_vectorLabor/JobsJob displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateAlex Wissner-Gross28.8%unknownunknownpending
ROB_001multi_vectorAIIf hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run...Leopold Aschenbrenner28.8%unknownunknownpending
239_008multi_vectorSpaceMoon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk28.8%unknownunknownpending
SEM_034multi_vectorAI/AGITrue artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.Demis Hassabis28.7%unknownunknownpending
CYB_001multi_vectorLabor/JobsBy 2036, NVIDIA itself will employ approximately 75,000 human workers alongside 7.5 million AI agents — establishing a 100-to-1 synthetic-to-human labor ratio. Human employees transition exclusively to high-level strategic orchestration; every employee...Jensen Huang28.5%unknownunknownpending
INF_018multi_vectorSpaceSpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities.Elon Musk28.4%unknownunknownpending
INF_053multi_vectorEnergyValar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S...Isaiah Taylor28.1%unknownunknownpending
INF_055multi_vectorEnergyHelion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement.Sam Altman27.7%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_004multi_vectorAIAGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.Dario Amodei27.6%unknownunknownpending
INF_020multi_vectorSpaceIn-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings.BIS Research26.5%unknownunknownpending
247_040multi_vectorCryptoAI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with BitcoinAlex Wissner-Gross25.7%unknownunknownpending
242_056multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesAlex Wissner-Gross25.0%unknownunknownpending
246_049multi_vectorAIDyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it.Alex Wissner-Gross24.4%unknownunknownpending
240_053multi_vectorAIAI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaninglessPeter Diamandis23.5%unknownunknownpending
SEM_007multi_vectorAI/StrategyAltman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility.Sam Altman23.2%unknownunknownpending
239_020multi_vectorAIAI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to doElon Musk22.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_003multi_vectorAIBy 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.Sam Altman22.8%unknownunknownpending
229_038multi_vectorMacro/EconomyRobotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).Dave Blundin22.7%unknownunknownpending
247_013multi_vectorLabor/Jobs99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI todayPeter Dannenberg22.2%unknownunknownpending
AUT_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityIntegration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill...Peter Diamandis20.9%unknownunknownpending
SPC_007multi_vectorMarkets/StocksSpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table.Chamath Palihapitiya19.7%unknownunknownpending
SEM_038multi_vectorAI/AGIDigital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.Elon Musk19.3%unknownunknownpending
IND_009multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityArtificial Superintelligence arrives by roughly 2030 — shortly thereafter all human illnesses will be cured 'much sooner than we think'; mechanism: AI not just predicting protein structures but generating novel biological designs revolutionizing drug d...Demis Hassabis18.9%unknownunknownpending
ROB_009multi_vectorRoboticsExternal sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ...Elon Musk18.5%unknownunknownpending
AI_032multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAstromech (co-founded with Harvard geneticist George Church) will quickly become a trillion-dollar enterprise by applying AI to predictive biology — leveraging massive time-series genomic data from de-extinction projects to predict pathogen mutation pa...Ben Lamm18.0%unknownunknownpending
SPC_023multi_vectorAIAltman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c...Sam Altman17.9%unknownunknownpending
CYB_024multi_vectorDefenseThe combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...Eric Schmidt16.8%unknownunknownin_progress
AI_004multi_vectorAIAI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention.Elon Musk16.5%unknownunknownpending
INF_054multi_vectorEnergyValar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels from high-temperature nuclear heat — addressing a trillion-dollar TAM by decarbonizing steel, cement, and petrochemicals.Isaiah Taylor16.3%unknownunknownpending
SEM_032multi_vectorAI/Mathematics15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross15.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_063multi_vectorQuantum/AIQuantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.Alex Wissner-Gross15.0%unknownunknownpending
AUT_013multi_vectorAuto/Transport'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event...Elon Musk15.0%unknownunknownpending
SEM_010multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion.Jensen Huang8.0%unknownunknownpending
ROB_004multi_vectorAIBy approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every...Demis Hassabis8.0%unknownunknownpending

Adverse scenarios (0)

Predictions where this ticker is displaced
PredDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactMechanism
No adverse scenarios