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235_003predictionMarkets/Stocks$100T

First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30
Edges in / out
7 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | We we discussed this a few podcasts ago that we'll see the first hundred trillion dollar companies uh uh before the end of this decade.

Watch events: Top market cap milestones: $10T single stock; $20T; $50T

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
We we discussed this a few podcasts ago that we'll see the first hundred trillion dollar companies uh uh before the end of this decade.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Same cluster.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 pending
  1. 2026-08-26pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2027-04-21pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2027-06-30pendingFirst company crosses $10T market cap
    How: NVIDIA, Microsoft, or Apple closes above $10T intraday or end-of-day market cap on US exchange per CompaniesMarketCap or Bloomberg terminal
    Source: Motley Fool $10T NVDA forecast + analyst consensusconf 55%
  4. 2027-12-14pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2027-12-31pendingScenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027
  6. 2027-12-31pendingTop company net income annualized run rate crosses $300B
    How: Quarterly 10-Q from NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, or GOOGL shows trailing-four-quarter net income >=$300B
    Source: Earnings model — required to support $20T+ at sane multiplesconf 40%
  7. 2028-03-31pendingFirst non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculation
    How: Saudi Aramco, TSMC, or Tencent serious analyst report (Goldman/JPM/MS) projects $10T+ on at least 5y horizon
    Source: Industry analyst report cycleconf 40%
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pending$100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst note
    How: Tier-1 sell-side firm (GS/MS/JPM/BofA) publishes a research note explicitly modeling a path to $100T cap for any single company
    Source: Forecasting trajectory patternconf 35%
  9. 2028-12-31pendingFirst company crosses $20T market cap
    How: Closing cap above $20T per Bloomberg/CompaniesMarketCap; NVDA, MSFT, or AAPL most likely candidate
    Source: Beth Kindig io-fund $20T NVDA by 2030 forecastconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z55.2%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 56.7% → 55.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z56.7%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 59.6% → 56.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z59.6%-5.4pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 59.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.650-0.082
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.650-0.052
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.650+0.050
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.650+0.026
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.650-0.022

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRCLIRBTRIOTMARASYMFANUYNVDABBAIGTLBAIABBNYAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAXYZ

Adverse (5)

HYGEMBMUBTLTLQD

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_RECESSION_2027NBER recession declared 2027macro_recession
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.672manifold30T market cap company before 2030?26%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.607polymarketWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?0%mentionspending2025-10-10
0.601polymarketWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?0%mentionspending2026-04-16

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$100 trillion market cap",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "No, that implies a one quadrillion dollar valuation using the current market price earnings ratio ratio. We we discussed this a few podcasts ago that we'll see the first hundred trillion dollar companies uh uh before the end of this decade.",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "We we discussed this a few podcasts ago that we'll see the first hundred trillion dollar companies uh uh before the end of this decade.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll see",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "before end of 2029",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First company crosses $10T market cap",
      "source": "Motley Fool $10T NVDA forecast + analyst consensus",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/23/prediction-nvidia-will-reach-a-10-trillion-market/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA, Microsoft, or Apple closes above $10T intraday or end-of-day market cap on US exchange per CompaniesMarketCap or Bloomberg terminal"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_RECESSION_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Top company net income annualized run rate crosses $300B",
      "source": "Earnings model — required to support $20T+ at sane multiples",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "Quarterly 10-Q from NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, or GOOGL shows trailing-four-quarter net income >=$300B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First non-US sovereign or private firm mentioned in $10T speculation",
      "source": "Industry analyst report cycle",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "Saudi Aramco, TSMC, or Tencent serious analyst report (Goldman/JPM/MS) projects $10T+ on at least 5y horizon"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "$100T market cap threshold first appears in consensus analyst note",
      "source": "Forecasting trajectory pattern",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2028-06-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tier-1 sell-side firm (GS/MS/JPM
... (truncated)