TK05thesis_killerthesis_killer
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 374
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Sticky inflation + deficit financing forces US 10y > 5%; growth/duration assets compressed; unprofitable tech punished.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment — Morgan Stanley | 67.2% | 0.050 | 0.720 | -0.153 |
| killer | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Teraha — Jack Dorsey | 82.8% | 0.050 | 0.950 | -0.148 |
| killer | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.050 | 0.820 | -0.134 |
| killer | 248_011 Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and c — Dave Blundin | 60.3% | 0.050 | 0.650 | -0.133 |
| killer | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue thr — Jensen Huang | 78.5% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.126 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (374)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | SEM_048 | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). | AI/Corporate | — |
| killer | SEM_039 | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Semis/ASICs | — |
| killer | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_041 | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) | AI | — |
| killer | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| killer | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| killer | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 246_047 | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_001 | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| killer | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | CMQ_023 | Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI factories' that consume electricity and data to manufacture tokens. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | CMQ_024 | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| killer | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| killer | SEM_046 | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero. | AI/Startups | — |
| killer | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| killer | SEM_002 | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | AI | — |
| killer | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | IND_011 | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| killer | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | CMQ_048 | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally within 2-3 years — decimating a massive sector of the service economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | ROB_019 | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and into the physical economy, turning traditional hardware engineering into deeply integrated software-driven systems; relies on robot learning, autonomous science, and new inte... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_045 | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. | Economy/Org | — |
| killer | 233_007 | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Education | — |
| killer | 236_030 | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_033 | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | AI/Physics | — |
| killer | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| killer | 232_043 | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_028 | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_030 | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_048 | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | AI | — |
| killer | AI_029 | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_040 | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Space | — |
| killer | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 245_042 | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_035 | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | AI | — |
| killer | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| killer | 246_029 | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_055 | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | AI | — |
| killer | 248_011 | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_011 | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion) | AI | — |
| killer | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_018 | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | AI | — |
| killer | 231_026 | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_037 | Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 233_005 | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 234_046 | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | AI | — |
| killer | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_006 | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_030 | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | AI | — |
| killer | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| killer | 236_007 | US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_009 | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_018 | UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_034 | Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_008 | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | AI | — |
| killer | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_007 | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 236_049 | US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| killer | 243_006 | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_052 | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_051 | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_050 | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_029 | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_007 | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | AI | — |
| killer | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_030 | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | AI | — |
| killer | 244_036 | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | AI | — |
| killer | 230_046 | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_059 | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_052 | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | AI | — |
| killer | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| killer | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_046 | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | AI | — |
| killer | 242_042 | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | AI | — |
| killer | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_003 | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | AI | — |
| killer | 231_014 | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_010 | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_016 | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | AI | — |
| killer | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_020 | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| killer | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_048 | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_050 | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_021 | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 241_022 | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_045 | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | AI | — |
| killer | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| killer | 242_010 | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | AI | — |
| killer | 242_017 | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_021 | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| killer | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_036 | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Space | — |
| killer | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_053 | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_046 | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Space | — |
| killer | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| killer | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_023 | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_021 | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 241_005 | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | AI | — |
| killer | 248_017 | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| killer | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_012 | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_021 | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| killer | 234_030 | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_031 | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | AI_024 | As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... | Consumer | — |
| killer | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_008 | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | AI | — |
| killer | 241_013 | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | AI | — |
| killer | 229_040 | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_042 | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_009 | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_045 | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_051 | Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_030 | AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_031 | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_033 | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_042 | GDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_053 | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| killer | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_017 | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| killer | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_002 | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_037 | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 237_006 | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_011 | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_015 | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_001 | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | AI | — |
| killer | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_068 | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_019 | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | AI | — |
| killer | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_029 | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | AI | — |
| killer | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| killer | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| killer | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_022 | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_024 | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_040 | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_044 | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_004 | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | AI | — |
| killer | 247_009 | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| killer | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_028 | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | AI | — |
| killer | 247_036 | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_038 | Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 248_006 | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_043 | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 248_050 | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_021 | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | AI/China | — |
| killer | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| killer | SEM_040 | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. | Finance/Crypto | — |
| killer | INF_029 | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporations will pay data-center operators directly for finalized outcomes (optimized supply chains, completed legal briefs, delivered marketing campaigns) rat... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SPC_029 | 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_012 | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | AI | — |
| killer | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_001 | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_020 | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_009 | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_036 | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_011 | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | AI | — |
| killer | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_003 | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_050 | Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 234_048 | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | AI | — |
| killer | 247_057 | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | AI | — |
| killer | 234_047 | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | AI | — |
| killer | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 234_016 | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | AI | — |
| killer | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_044 | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_038 | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_022 | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_054 | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_042 | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_027 | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. | Other | — |
| killer | 231_025 | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | AI | — |
| killer | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_014 | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | AI | — |
| killer | 231_016 | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_040 | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_030 | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_044 | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | AI | — |
| killer | 242_045 | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | AI | — |
| killer | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_037 | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | AI | — |
| killer | 244_015 | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 238_034 | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | AI | — |
| killer | 245_004 | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_023 | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunity | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 231_049 | If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | Crypto | — |
| killer | 245_040 | Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 230_004 | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_040 | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_027 | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | AI | — |
| killer | 235_037 | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_031 | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_004 | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| killer | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 240_018 | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | AI | — |
| killer | 248_027 | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Other | — |
| killer | 235_010 | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_057 | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | AI | — |
| killer | 246_021 | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | AI | — |
| killer | 245_022 | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| killer | 237_030 | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_031 | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_032 | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_015 | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_029 | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| killer | 238_071 | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | AI | — |
| killer | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| killer | 234_018 | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| killer | 242_043 | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | AI | — |
| killer | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_002 | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | AI | — |
| killer | 238_038 | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | AI | — |
| killer | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_015 | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_040 | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | AI | — |
| killer | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
| killer | SEM_044 | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Space | — |
| killer | 231_003 | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_048 | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_043 | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| killer | 247_026 | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | AI | — |
| killer | AI_015 | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. | AI | — |
| killer | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_009 | The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). | Economy | — |
| killer | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| killer | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| killer | CYB_023 | Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... | Crypto | — |
| killer | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_049 | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | AI | — |
| killer | AI_022 | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| killer | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | AI_027 | Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... | Crypto | — |
| killer | IND_018 | Imminent rise of 'techno-feudalism' — hidden inextricable alliance between Artificial Superintelligence and State power; AI treasury companies will violently concentrate global wealth. As AI hyper-automates labor and degrades fiat currency through QE n... | Crypto | — |
| killer | SEM_007 | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. | AI/Strategy | — |
| killer | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
| killer | SEM_010 | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (9)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.627 | manifold | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027? | 58% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-06 |
| 0.626 | manifold | Will US headline CPI for May 2026 come in at 3.9% or higher year-over-year? | 67% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.617 | manifold | By how much will Colombia's 10Y bond yield drop when bond markets open after 5/31/26? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.615 | manifold | Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%? | 73% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.612 | manifold | Will the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026. | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.611 | gdelt | 266374 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.588 | manifold | US Consumer Price Index (April '26) < 3.55% | 30% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.586 | manifold | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.580 | manifold | Fed Hike or Cut First? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "Sticky inflation + deficit financing forces US 10y > 5%; growth/duration assets compressed; unprofitable tech punished.",
"time_window": "2026-2028",
"scenario_name": "Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)",
"affected_domains": "AI (156), Markets (112), Labor (44), Geopolitics (14), Auto (12)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Short long-duration Treasuries",
"long banks",
"short unprofitable tech"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Weekly — CPI/PCE, Treasury auctions, Fed speak",
"affected_pred_count": 374,
"early_warning_signals": "Core PCE sticky >3%; Treasury auction tail; term premium > 100bps",
"countervailing_factors": "AI-driven productivity shock lowers breakeven inflation; Fed cuts aggressive",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_011",
"229_026",
"229_036",
"229_038",
"229_040",
"229_042",
"230_003",
"230_004",
"230_005",
"230_006",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"Cash/SHY/BIL",
"banks (JPM",
"GS)",
"insurance (BRK.B)"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"Unprofitable AI stocks (BBAI",
"AI",
"SOUN)",
"REITs",
"long-duration tech"
]
}