GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos.

GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | it's also been cited that spud will be of equal capability to mythos or more.

it's also been cited that spud will be of equal capability to mythos or more.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "Equal or greater capability",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Cited",
  "context": "it's also been cited that spud will be of equal capability to mythos or more.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "it's also been cited that spud will be of equal capability to mythos or more.",
  "conv_cues": "cited",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 ('Spud') releases on or before April 23, 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — GPT-5.5 ('Spud' codename) shipped on schedule.",
      "source": "OpenAI — Introducing GPT-5.5 (April 23, 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI ships GPT-5.5 to consumers and API on or before April 23, 2026; this is the model Diamandis nicknamed 'Spud'"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 leads Claude Opus 4.7 ('Mythos') on Terminal-Bench 2.0",
      "notes": "HIT — GPT-5.5 leads Terminal-Bench by 13+ points and FrontierMath by 8 points. Confirms 'equal or greater' in coding/math.",
      "source": "Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 vs Claude (82.7% vs 69.4% on Terminal-Bench)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/gpt-5-5-review-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GPT-5.5 achieves Terminal-Bench 2.0 score >= Claude Opus 4.7 in published benchmark comparison"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI publishes GPT-5.5 system card with capability/safety scores",
      "notes": "HIT.",
      "source": "OpenAI Deployment Safety Hub — GPT-5.5 system card",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI Deployment Safety Hub publishes GPT-5.5 system card with autonomous capability evaluations, dangerous capability tests, and safety mitigations"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mixed evaluation: Tom's Guide / blind testing shows Claude Opus 4.7 still wins broader categories",
      "notes": "PARTIAL — depending on benchmark, GPT-5.5 either leads (Terminal-Bench/FrontierMath) or loses (Tom's Guide qualitative). Diamandis claim 'equal capability or more' is partially supported.",
      "source": "Build Fast With AI — Tom's Guide tested GPT-5.5 vs Claude Opus 4.7 across 7 categories; GPT-5.5 lost in all 7",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/gpt-5-5-review-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent blind comparison (e.g., Tom's Guide multi-category test) shows Claude Opus 4.7 winning on writing/reasoning/multimodal vs GPT-5.5"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expec
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