← Cockpit
244_019predictionAuto/Transportautonomous

Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
48.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31
Edges in / out
123 / 9
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Uh I predict today that in two years he won't need to get a driver's license. He'll just get it so he can get away from the parents. But the need won't be as much and certainly it's going to collapse over the next few years.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
Uh I predict today that in two years he won't need to get a driver's license. He'll just get it so he can get away from the parents. But the need won't be as much and certainly it's going to collapse over the next few years.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Peter's son doesn't need license in 2y (by 2028). Waymo 20+ cities + Tesla FSD trajectory supports this for Bay Area/Phoenix/Austin residents.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z48.4%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 49.7% → 48.4%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z49.7%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 52.4% → 49.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z52.4%-5.0pp
Network propagation: 57.4% → 52.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z57.4%-8.7pp
Network propagation: 66.1% → 57.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z66.1%-12.4pp
Network propagation: 78.5% → 66.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z78.5%-13.5pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 78.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+33.9pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.661
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.33882,
  "inside_posterior": 0.66118,
  "validation_notes": "Peter's son doesn't need license in 2y (by 2028). Waymo 20+ cities + Tesla FSD trajectory supports this for Bay Area/Phoenix/Austin residents.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.66118,
  "resolution_evidence": "Peter's son doesn't need license in 2y (by 2028). Waymo 20+ cities + Tesla FSD trajectory supports this for Bay Area/Phoenix/Austin residents.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.366
killerTK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.349
prereqSEM_032
15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics InstitAlex Wissner-Gross
15.0%0.9200.050-0.308
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050+0.228
prereq246_047
Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.Peter Diamandis
75.6%0.9200.050+0.217

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq243_015
Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than Dara Khosrowshahi
46.1%0.5500.050-0.172
prereq244_017
Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years Dara Khosrowshahi
45.3%0.5500.050-0.165
prereq230_018
In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hoPeter Diamandis
46.0%0.6000.050-0.148
prereq243_031
Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than todayDara Khosrowshahi
46.3%0.6500.050-0.127
prereq243_014
10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decDara Khosrowshahi
39.5%0.5500.050-0.107

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

INVZWRDLIDRAEVAMBLYPONYOUSTVRRMAMBAAURAIOTHSAIMBGAFBIDUBMWYYGMGOOGLHMCIOTQCOMTMTSLAUBERVWAGY

Adverse (5)

MCYALLCINFPGRTRV

Prerequisites (123)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq246_047Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.AI
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq243_002Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026Auto/Transport
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq238_072Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 daysAI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_002By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs).AI
prereq246_005OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_031OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.Markets/Stocks
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq233_007In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform.Education
prereq230_040AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.AI
prereq238_023Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)AI
prereqSEM_033AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).AI/Physics
prereq230_048Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms.AI
prereq248_011Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year.AI
prereq247_055Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commonAI
prereq246_029Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.AI
prereq231_026Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.AI
prereq230_006The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.AI
prereq232_043Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced.Labor/Jobs
prereq241_050AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutionsAI
prereq233_005Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.AI
prereq247_008Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following yearAI
prereq230_046OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public.AI
prereq231_014Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.AI
prereq231_053Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_015Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 monthsMarkets/Stocks
prereq234_021OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027AI
prereq234_046AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humansAI
prereq235_005AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.AI
prereq235_006By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.AI
prereq235_007AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.Geopolitics
prereq237_029AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.AI
prereq240_003NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volumeAI
prereq240_010NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar yearMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_016Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)AI
prereq240_048Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this yearLabor/Jobs
prereq240_050US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a jobLabor/Jobs
prereq241_0052026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this yearAI
prereq241_045Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to winAI
prereq242_010By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physicsAI
prereq242_042Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to investAI
prereq243_035Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averageAuto/Transport
prereq244_036Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing)AI
prereq246_006OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).Markets/Stocks
prereq246_050Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release.AI
prereq246_051GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos.AI
prereq246_052Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use.AI
prereq247_030GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillionsAI
prereq248_012AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.AI
prereq248_013Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.AI
prereq248_017Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_021Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.Space
prereq248_023Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.AI
prereq248_046Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.Space
prereq235_042OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.Markets/Stocks
prereq240_041Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next yearAI
prereqSEM_021Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.AI/China
prereq241_008AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possibleAI
prereq241_013Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effectsAI
prereq232_060We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.AI
prereqSEM_035World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).AI/Cognition
prereq232_053To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.AI
prereq243_033About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallyLabor/Jobs
prereq244_013Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the USAuto/Transport
prereq231_045Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash.AI
prereq248_043Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months.Robotics
prereq246_022Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).AI
prereq246_024Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).AI
prereq248_050Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters.AI
prereq247_004Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversionsAI
prereq247_009Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026AI
prereq247_010Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectoryAI
prereq247_028Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departingAI
prereq240_029ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildoutAI
prereq235_046Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely.Geopolitics
prereq237_006Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits.AI
prereq237_011AI agents will have voices in the near future.AI
prereq237_015There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_017OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeksAI
prereq248_006The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year.AI
prereq240_019Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a yearAI
prereq231_001Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.AI
prereq232_044There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.AI
prereq234_019Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeksAI
prereq247_057Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parametersAI
prereq229_026By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.Robotics
prereq231_016Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.AI
prereq237_020The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local.AI
prereq230_003AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.AI
prereq235_008Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.AI
prereq247_011OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billionAI
prereq231_054Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.Labor/Jobs
prereq237_009ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.AI
prereq231_025Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).AI
prereq235_015GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.AI
prereq235_037Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.AI
prereq237_030Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus.AI
prereq248_027Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.Other
prereq247_002Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profitAI
prereq234_025Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robotsRobotics
prereq246_021GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).AI
prereq240_058OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plansAI
prereq230_004We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.AI
prereq235_010Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.AI
prereq234_018GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeksAI
prereq238_040Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OSAI
prereq248_048AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm.AI
prereq247_003Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPOAI
prereq237_019Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.AI
prereq231_015Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.AI
prereq247_026Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agentsAI
prereq231_003Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.AI
prereq231_018Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.AI
prereq248_010AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).AI
prereq231_002Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.AI
prereqSEM_03215% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.AI/Mathematics
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (9)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq243_031Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USLabor/Jobs
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq244_002Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)Auto/Transport
prereq230_018In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.Auto/Transport
prereq243_013Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwareAuto/Transport
prereq243_017Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq244_017Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass productionAuto/Transport
prereq243_01410+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowAuto/Transport
prereq243_015Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providersAuto/Transport

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31[Autonomous 2028-12] [244_019] Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years [INF_065] First Uber robotaxi depot opening; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones [238_049] Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 20pending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importPeter's son doesn't need license in 2y (by 2028). Waymo 20+ cities + Tesla FSD trajectory supports this for Bay Area/Phoenix/Austin residents.

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.553manifoldWhat time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?mentionspending2026-05-11

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Uh I predict today that in two years he won't need to get a driver's license. He'll just get it so he can get away from the parents. But the need won't be as much and certainly it's going to collapse over the next few years.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Uh I predict today that in two years he won't need to get a driver's license. He'll just get it so he can get away from the parents. But the need won't be as much and certainly it's going to collapse over the next few years.",
  "conv_cues": "I predict today; certainly",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "By 2028 (2 years from 2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "230_018",
      "expected_date": "2031-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "243_015",
      "expected_date": "2036-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "243_014",
      "expected_date": "2036-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "243_017",
      "expected_date": "2036-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "243_013",
      "expected_date": "2036-10-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "230_020",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 3,
  "sub_domain": "Transport",
  "affiliation": "Moonshots/Xprize",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 244,
  "granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.756911+00:00",
  "target_date": "2028-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-02",
  "parse_method": "RELATIVE +2y",
  "domain_bucket": "Auto",
  "episode_title": "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)",
  "fault_line_id": "F005, F006",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "230, 242, 244",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 3,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C9"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2028-12",
  "months_from_today": 26,
  "active_start_month": "2028-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Auto/Transport → 10/2028",
    "new_date": "2028-10-31",
    "old_date": "2028-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "t
... (truncated)