AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.

AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI is the slowest and most incorrect it will ever be. I know when I'm using my Claudebot or Claude 4.6 if I get something that seems off I will ask it to check itself. and being able to use this in a recursive fashion... we're in a period of recursive self-improvement. I think we're at the steepest part of the curve and it's going to become more and more capable every day. And the idea that we can use, um, AIS to check AIs and in fact uh, to do uh, deeper reasoning is going to eliminate this very quickly.

AI is the slowest and most incorrect it will ever be. I know when I'm using my Claudebot or Claude 4.6 if I get something that seems off I will ask it to check itself. and being able to use this in a recursive fashion... we're in a period of recursive self-improvement. I think we're at the steepest part of the curve and it's going to become more and more capable every day. And the idea that we can use, um, AIS to check AIs and in fact uh, to do uh, deeper reasoning is going to eliminate this very quickly.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "AI is the slowest and most incorrect it will ever be... we're at the steepest part of the curve and it's going to become more and more capable every day... going to eliminate this very quickly.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "AI is the slowest and most incorrect it will ever be. I know when I'm using my Claudebot or Claude 4.6 if I get something that seems off I will ask it to check itself. and being able to use this in a recursive fashion... we're in a period of recursive self-improvement. I think we're at the steepest part of the curve and it's going to become more and more capable every day. And the idea that we can use, um, AIS to check AIs and in fact uh, to do uh, deeper reasoning is going to eliminate this very quickly.",
  "conv_cues": "going to eliminate this very quickly; steepest part of the curve",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "very quickly",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Claude 4.6 Sonnet achieves ~4% hallucination rate (lowest in market)",
      "source": "https://medium.com/@anyapi.ai/llm-hallucination-index-2026-why-claude-4-6-7b2d13ed9f0c",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/@anyapi.ai/llm-hallucination-index-2026-why-claude-4-6-7b2d13ed9f0c",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BullshitBench v2 / LLM Hallucination Index 2026 confirms Claude 4.6 ~4% hallucination on 500 factual queries"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Reasoning Paradox confirmed — chain-of-thought hurts factuality",
      "notes": "DIRECTIONAL DISCONFIRMATION of the prediction's claim that recursive self-checking 'eliminates' errors quickly. Empirical evidence shows opposite for several frontier models.",
      "source": "https://nevirax.com/en/news/chatgpt-vs-claude-alucinaciones-benchmarks-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://nevirax.com/en/news/chatgpt-vs-claude-alucinaciones-benchmarks-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BullshitBench v2 demonstrates GPT-5.2/Gemini 3 Pro reasoning modes have LOWER factual accuracy than non-reasoning modes"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 ships with 86% hallucination rate (most-capable model worst-calibrated)",
      "notes": "Strong counter-evidence to 'eliminate quickly' framing. Capability gains have NOT eliminated hallucination.",
      "source": "https://medium.com/@anyapi.ai/llm-hallucination-index-2026-why-claude-4-6-7b2d13ed9f0c",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/@anyapi.ai/llm-hallucination-index-2026-why-claude-4-6-7b2d13ed9f0c",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AA-Omniscience benchmark records GPT-5.5 at 57% accuracy / 86% hallucination"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market ca
... (truncated)