Predictors
104 futurists from Thesis_Timeline_v1.0 Sheet 18 (Futurist Scorecard). Hit/miss/Brier columns will populate as Phase 4 calibration accrues live data.
Tier · Pending
103
Tier · Unrated
1
| Name | Archetype | Role | Total | In window | Macro | Avg conv | Avg CSS | Top domain | Hit/Miss/Pt | Hit rate | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wissner-Gross | Generalist | Host | 231 | 169 | 58 | 3.45 | 22.8 | AI | 6/1/4 | 54.5% | Pending |
| Dave Blundin | AGI-Accelerationist | Host | 165 | 135 | 54 | 3.70 | 32.1 | AI | 3/2/4 | 33.3% | Pending |
| Peter Diamandis | AGI-Accelerationist | Host | 160 | 128 | 45 | 3.69 | 34.0 | AI | 10/0/5 | 66.7% | Pending |
| Dara Khosrowshahi | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 89 | 38 | 20 | 3.80 | 20.5 | Auto/Transport | 2/0/1 | 66.7% | Pending |
| Elon Musk | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 69 | 42 | 20 | 3.88 | 28.0 | Macro/Economy | 1/0/2 | 33.3% | Pending |
| Eric Schmidt | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 68 | 63 | 19 | 3.91 | 22.9 | AI | 3/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Brett Adcock | Specialist (humanoids) | Guest-CEO | 51 | 29 | 2 | 3.90 | 22.3 | Robotics | 5/0/1 | 83.3% | Pending |
| Salim Ismail | Macro-Strategist | Host | 49 | 38 | 26 | 3.55 | 16.3 | Labor/Jobs | 1/0/1 | 50.0% | Pending |
| Ben Lamm | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 47 | 16 | 6 | 3.70 | 15.6 | Biotech/Longevity | 2/0/1 | 66.7% | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley | Generalist | Cited-Firm | 42 | 36 | 1 | 4.40 | 46.3 | Energy | 1/0/1 | 50.0% | Pending |
| Andrew Yang | Macro-Strategist | Guest-Politician | 35 | 29 | 23 | 3.77 | 18.9 | Macro/Economy | 0/0/3 | 0.0% | Pending |
| Alex Finn | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-Other | 28 | 28 | 5 | 3.79 | 13.6 | AI | 1/0/1 | 50.0% | Pending |
| Jensen Huang | Generalist | Cited-Executive | 27 | 18 | 2 | 4.78 | 65.4 | AI/Compute | 6/0/2 | 75.0% | Pending |
| Leopold Aschenbrenner | Generalist | Cited-VC/Researcher | 23 | 23 | 1 | 4.78 | 58.0 | AI | 2/0/1 | 66.7% | Pending |
| Ben Horowitz | Macro-Strategist | Guest-VC | 22 | 21 | 10 | 3.73 | 17.8 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Codex Research Pack | Synthesis-Researcher | Cited-Synthesis | 20 | 18 | 0 | 3.55 | 3.6 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | — |
| Sam Altman | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-CEO | 20 | 15 | 2 | 4.10 | 32.6 | AI | 0/0/1 | 0.0% | Pending |
| Dario Amodei | Generalist | Cited-CEO | 17 | 12 | 2 | 4.41 | 48.6 | AI | 1/0/2 | 33.3% | Pending |
| Joe Liemandt | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 16 | 12 | 5 | 3.94 | 12.7 | Education | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Demis Hassabis | Generalist | Cited-CEO | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4.13 | 39.4 | AI | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Emad Mostaque | AGI-Accelerationist | Host | 14 | 12 | 4 | 4.00 | 21.0 | AI | 3/0/1 | 75.0% | Pending |
| Andrej Karpathy | Generalist | Cited-Other | 10 | 7 | 0 | 4.30 | 42.4 | AI | 3/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Michael Saylor | Macro-Bear | Cited-CEO | 10 | 7 | 4 | 4.40 | 16.4 | Crypto | 0/0/1 | 0.0% | Pending |
| Kevin Weil | Generalist | Cited-Other | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4.22 | 30.4 | AI | 2/0/1 | 66.7% | Pending |
| Marc Andreessen | Generalist | Cited-VC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4.38 | 36.8 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Ray Kurzweil | Generalist | Cited-Other | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4.38 | 22.6 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Mark Cuban | Generalist | Cited-Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3.71 | 17.2 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jack Dorsey | Generalist | Cited-CEO | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4.17 | 30.4 | AI | 3/0/1 | 75.0% | Pending |
| Joseph Moore | Specialist (NVIDIA) | Cited-Analyst | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 79.5 | Capital Markets | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Nick Bostrom | Generalist | Cited-Other | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 10.6 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | Generalist | Cited-VC | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4.20 | 15.1 | Markets/Stocks | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| David Holz | Generalist | Cited-CEO | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 24.3 | Robotics | 2/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Gwynne Shotwell | Generalist | Cited-Other | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4.40 | 29.8 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jason Calacanis | Macro-Bear | Cited-VC | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4.20 | 20.5 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jimmy Ba | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Other | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4.20 | 23.8 | AI | 2/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Peter Dannenberg | Generalist | Cited-Other | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3.40 | 8.1 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Ramez Naam | Generalist | Cited-Other | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 42.8 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Superforecaster Community | Generalist | Cited-Other | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4.60 | 46.3 | AI | 2/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| MacKenzie Price | AGI-Accelerationist | Guest-CEO | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4.75 | 23.4 | Education | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Peter Zeihan | Generalist | Cited-Other | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 31.6 | Macro/Economy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Amy Webb | Generalist | Cited-Other | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.67 | 30.0 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Ian Bremmer | Generalist | Cited-Other | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4.33 | 44.7 | Geopolitics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jared Isaacman | Generalist | Cited-Other | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4.00 | 22.6 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Generalist | Cited-Synthesis | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | 24.8 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| SpaceX | Generalist | Cited-Firm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5.00 | 48.4 | Space | 3/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Daniella Amodei | Under-sampled | Cited-Other | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4.00 | 35.3 | Geopolitics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Isaiah Taylor | Under-sampled | Cited-CEO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.50 | 5.2 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| PolyMarket | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Firm | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3.50 | 1.9 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Unknown | AGI-Accelerationist | Host | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.50 | 1.9 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Alphabet | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 26.4 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Anthropic | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 42.2 | AI | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| April Rinne | Under-sampled | Cited-Other | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 13.2 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| BIS Research | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | 14.4 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Brent Bornick | Under-sampled | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 19.8 | Robotics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | Under-sampled | Guest-CEO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.00 | 32.0 | Robotics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| CATL | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 7.2 | Auto/Transport | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| China (government) | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Dario Amodei / Anthropic | Macro-Bear | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| David Friedberg | Under-sampled | Guest-VC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 5.4 | Semis/Geopolitics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Dr. Don Mucalem | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Biotech/Longevity | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Equinix | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 48.0 | Real Estate | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| EY (Ernst & Young) | Macro-Strategist | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Consumer | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded) | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 18.0 | Semis | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Gerd Leonhard | Under-sampled | Cited-Other | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Media/Ads | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Goldman Sachs | Macro-Strategist | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Macro-Bear | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 4.4 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending | |
| Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | Macro-Bear | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| IEA | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 33.6 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Industry analysts (synthesis) | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 33.6 | Robotics | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Executive | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jason Calacanis / David Sacks | Under-sampled | Cited-VC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 42.0 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jennifer Li | Under-sampled | Cited-VC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 12.6 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | Under-sampled | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 75.0 | Semis/Memory | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Joe Liemandt / MacKenzie Price | Under-sampled | Cited-CEO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 15.6 | Education | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Lyten | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 8.1 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Marc Andreessen / Ben Horowitz | Under-sampled | Cited-VC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 38.4 | Markets/Stocks | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Mark Pack Donovan | Macro-Bear | Guest-Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Macro/Economy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Meta | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Firm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz) | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 57.0 | Geopolitics | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Micron | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 68.0 | Semis/Memory | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Mike Wilson | Macro-Strategist | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 44.0 | Capital Markets | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 92.0 | AI/Compute | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| New Market Pitch | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 57.0 | Space | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Nvidia | Under-sampled | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 92.0 | Semis/Products | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| NVIDIA | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 9.1 | Space | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis) | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 88.0 | Semis | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| OpenAI Codex Lead | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| OpenAI (Sam Altman-led) | Macro-Bear | Guest-CEO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.00 | 95.0 | AI/Corporate | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Pete (audience, data center builder) | Macro-Strategist | Guest-Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Energy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang | Under-sampled | Host/Guest-Panel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 26.4 | Macro/Economy | 0/0/1 | 0.0% | Pending |
| Prediction markets | Macro-Strategist | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Markets/Stocks | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Ralph Losey | Under-sampled | Cited-Other | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 13.1 | Other | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Samsung (All-In Podcast analysis) | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 34.6 | Semis | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Samsung executives | Under-sampled | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 90.0 | Semis/Memory | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| San Francisco AI community | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 5.2 | AI | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | Under-sampled | Cited-Media | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 37.4 | Macro/Economy | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 31.2 | Semis | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| SoftBank | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 24.0 | Markets/Stocks | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Under-sampled | Cited-Analyst | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 38.4 | Semis | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | Macro-Strategist | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive | Under-sampled | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.0 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Unnamed tech CEO | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Executive | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 4.4 | Labor/Jobs | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |
| Video Narration (SpaceX) | Under-sampled | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.00 | 9.2 | Space | 1/0/0 | 100.0% | Pending |
| Zipline | AGI-Accelerationist | Cited-Firm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.00 | 13.2 | Auto/Transport | 0/0/0 | — | Pending |