Milestones — Review Queue

Predictions with OVERDUE milestones — pending events whose expected date has passed. Ranked by conviction × overdue-count. Click into a prediction to mark milestones observed, miss, partial, or add new ones.

Predictions with overdue milestones
280
Total overdue milestone events
537
Showing top
200
ranked by conv × overdue

Queue

Top 200 by analyst priority
IDConvDisplay dateOverduePendingHitTotalTitle
246_00152026-06-2859115SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.
239_03352026-07-05411016Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world
AI_01952026-05-164329Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insa
AI_02152026-05-014409The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of
AUT_00152026-05-294408The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate
CMQ_01552026-09-014329Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute t
CYB_00552026-06-2145110'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectiv
IND_00352026-05-244239Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal
SEM_01552026-06-2649316Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchang
AI_00952028-03-3037010Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly from $10 bil
AI_03352026-05-083339AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 ho
AUT_02052026-05-203429AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers
CMQ_00152026-06-2637111By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing
CMQ_01352026-10-153429A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 hi
CMQ_01452026-12-183429Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by expone
CMQ_02652027-11-203609NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → F
IND_01152026-05-2434182024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond sim
IND_02352026-07-073429'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy
INF_00452026-05-013408China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting e
INF_01152026-07-1233410Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-202
ROB_00252025-12-31340899% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of
ROB_00952026-07-093519External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail pric
SEM_02452026-08-14310316Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into
SPC_02252026-06-273104'2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transiti
239_00352026-08-30212216We are currently in AI hard takeoff
AI_00452026-07-3026210AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive
AUT_00752026-10-1125292026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive producti
AUT_01352026-09-272204'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the Un
AUT_01652026-07-242204NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generatin
AUT_02152026-08-142619Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically de
CMQ_01752026-09-292204US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundr
CMQ_02052026-08-142204Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global
CMQ_02352026-09-232204Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI f
CMQ_02452026-09-232619'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital e
CMQ_02852027-03-2925310NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgrade
CMQ_02952027-07-152439DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make
CMQ_03052026-09-2124410In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the mod
CMQ_03352026-09-0926210Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource
CMQ_03952026-09-1824410TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 20
CMQ_04052027-05-0426210AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory su
CMQ_04252026-09-2126210As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from
CMQ_04552026-10-142529Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driv
CMQ_05252026-10-032204Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7
CYB_00852026-09-1027110Hyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps from approximate
IND_00552031-05-142709Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enabl
IND_01452027-03-082529Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'ever
IND_01652026-08-132619By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the M
IND_02652027-05-062529Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they
ROB_02152031-02-142709The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China opera
ROB_02352026-09-2125310SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastru
SEM_00552028-02-09212216Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construc
SEM_02852026-08-1028010Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth conne
SPC_00252028-02-1529112A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation
229_00152026-07-21110315Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
229_00252026-06-2719415Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed cus
229_00752026-06-2818615Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to ful
230_01352030-06-23111416There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity
233_00752026-07-1417614In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback pla
238_02352026-08-3019414Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)
238_02552026-08-0518716AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level
AI_00252027-07-2418211Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacente
AUT_00952027-06-151629'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuse
AUT_01152027-12-231629Severe impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems and desires of
AUT_02852029-07-1116310Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion, and eventua
CMQ_00452027-07-01111214AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains c
CMQ_00552027-05-0819111AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by l
CMQ_02552031-04-3019010The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy
CMQ_03452027-06-071539HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year
CMQ_03552027-06-221629HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capaci
CMQ_03652026-11-0315410SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement
CMQ_04152027-06-051629Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed suppl
CMQ_04652026-11-161629Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes
CYB_02352031-05-251809Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated in
FUT_00452030-05-0319111Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM
IND_00752026-11-2016310Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capab
IND_01252029-02-111629NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a
IND_01752027-07-131528Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effective
INF_01652029-06-2318111Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; any
INF_01752027-05-121629xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand
INF_03152028-04-081809The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without proper
INF_03452026-11-191719Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for
ROB_01552028-01-0118110The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 ye
SEM_00452029-07-02111214Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructur
SEM_01352029-07-051809Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconduct
SEM_02352027-07-20110516No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal
SEM_02552026-11-1419414Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
SEM_04752028-02-15112114At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single co
AUT_00442027-09-2764010Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI to slash hea
234_01942026-07-2956415Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks
244_01642026-08-0859014AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today
245_01442026-05-3154211Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizi
240_01442026-08-0548315Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months
246_03642027-11-2346010Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.
AI_01342027-11-2147011'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot
AUT_02442026-07-3146010H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of
CMQ_03142026-06-184149AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now foll
CMQ_03742026-07-214509Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders f
CMQ_05942026-08-094509Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-
COD_BIO_00142026-07-1743310FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
INF_00542026-05-014308Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, net
SEM_03842026-06-1545211Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 202
230_04642026-06-2136413OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capabi
235_02742026-08-1437111Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.
240_03742027-09-03314017Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027
240_05642026-06-303609Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)
246_00242026-08-0939214SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
246_00442026-05-22310114SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
AI_00342026-09-0133410AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $1
AI_02442031-05-083609As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgenc
AI_02742031-02-123609Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails
AUT_01042027-10-183609As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digi
CMQ_04742026-07-043104Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific
CMQ_05742026-07-133339Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can now build worl
CMQ_06242026-06-103159Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger ph
CYB_00342026-05-013239Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social ne
IND_01042026-07-1834310Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) wi
INF_00842026-05-013239Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since
INF_02942026-05-013408Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics'
INF_03042026-05-013239By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previously
INF_03642026-05-013318AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricu
SEM_00242026-05-0137011By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduate
SEM_00642025-12-3138214OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acq
SEM_01942026-07-28310013Samsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critica
SEM_04042026-05-0138315Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software f
SEM_04142025-11-30310014At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/de
SEM_04542026-05-0139114Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 20
SPC_00542026-06-2633410AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M f
SPC_02042026-07-013104Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late
SPC_02842026-09-0736110Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional in
230_02542027-09-24210416The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.
230_03442026-07-292305Abundance will be achieved by 2035.
232_05742031-06-17214117First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astro
233_00942026-05-0529415A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
235_03242031-09-23211114Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.
236_010422045% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day
238_06842026-08-28212014Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)
241_02242026-08-02210315Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth
242_04642028-04-072709Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements
243_04142026-08-0829415Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected
245_02742026-09-0828212Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026
246_00742026-06-1829314SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.
248_01742027-09-2628515Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.
AI_03442031-04-102709The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driv
CMQ_02142026-08-292529AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroeconomic varia
CMQ_05642026-10-052619Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable loc
CMQ_05842026-09-212709Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) wil
COD_SPC_00742027-11-1628010NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist
FUT_01642026-08-082709Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers —
IND_00642027-05-072619Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will b
IND_01942026-08-05253102026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net
INF_01442026-09-1027110Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if
INF_03242028-03-1929415Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state
INF_04042027-01-272619Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control underlying DC rea
INF_04742026-08-07253102026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven p
INF_06642031-10-202709EV charging will totally bifurcate: consumer charging becomes localized and invisible (res
INF_06842026-08-17253102026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations w
ROB_01142026-08-212709An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics i
SEM_01742026-08-0729314TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K
SEM_01842026-10-032608SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 —
SEM_03042026-09-01210315S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader
SEM_03142026-08-05210315AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardw
229_02242026-07-19110315Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end hom
229_03342026-05-1517514Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month wit
230_00842028-06-24110617AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.
230_03342031-05-18110011Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary syst
231_00442027-06-18110617The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other field
231_01242027-03-1618615Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.
232_01042027-06-2318615Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.
232_03542028-06-21111618Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard
232_05642028-06-2419616Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-tar
233_01142030-06-18110516Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proo
234_01742026-09-0117614OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks
234_02642026-07-3119515AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months
234_04642026-06-2515612AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans
235_01942027-06-17115218Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.
235_02142029-06-0918716Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.
235_03342027-09-01111517Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.
236_01442026-06-2414712Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly
236_03642028-04-161809Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
236_04842026-06-2518717Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world
236_04942026-06-181326US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI
237_00642027-05-2618615Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, spee
237_01042028-01-06110516In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.
237_01142026-06-1916512AI agents will have voices in the near future.
237_01842026-06-2019616We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nan
237_02942026-06-2015612AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing th
238_00142028-03-23110415Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people
238_00542026-09-2319616By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the futur
238_04442026-08-271719Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems
239_01142026-07-20114116Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026
239_01642026-06-2018615Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount
240_03342028-04-041809AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks
240_05042026-09-0319515US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job
241_00342028-04-02110516Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet
241_02042026-06-19169161 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers
241_02542026-06-21111417Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations
241_03142026-07-0818615Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement
241_05642026-06-19111618Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down
242_00842028-11-07110516Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed
242_01442028-04-181809Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out

How this works

  • Milestones become overdue when their expected_date passes without being marked observed (status flip to hit / miss / partial).
  • Click an ID to open /predictions/[id], find the milestone in the chain, and use the inline observe form (status + observed_date + optional value/notes).
  • Daily cron at 05:30 UTC re-derives the chain and refreshes overdue counts.
  • Ranked by conviction × n_overdue so high-conviction predictions with many waiting signals surface first.