Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.
Verbatim quote
EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-04-01overdueEHang EH216-S obtains Air Operator Certificate enabling commercial pilotless air taxi serviceHow: EHang publicly announces Air Operator Certificate (AOC) issued by CAAC for commercial passenger operations of EH216-SSource: https://zagdaily.com/zag-air/ehang-secures-chinas-first-air-operator-certificates-for-pilotless-electric-air-taxis/ — EHang secures China's first Air Operator Certificatesconf 97%
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingEH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)How: EHang and Shanghai Hynfar Aviation begin trial pilotless eVTOL flights from Longhua Airport in downtown ShanghaiSource: https://www.ehang.com/news/1180.html — EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Completes Debut Flight in Downtown Shanghaiconf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certificationHow: CAAC issues type certificate for AutoFlight Prosperity multi-seat eVTOL enabling commercial passenger operationsSource: https://evtol.news/news/china-evtol-aircraft-round-up — AutoFlight Prosperity targeting airworthiness certification by 2026, ops by 2027-2028conf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-11-30pendingMulti-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubsHow: Paid passenger eVTOL taxi services operating in Guangzhou + Hefei + Shanghai (or equivalent ≥3 cities) on a recurring scheduleSource: https://newatlas.com/aircraft/ehang-eh216s-evtol-commercial-flight-approval/ — Pilotless air taxi gains approval for commercial flight opsconf 60%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingChina launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action PlanHow: Chinese government / Shanghai municipal authorities report ≥100 commercial low-altitude flight service applications operationalSource: Shanghai Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Low-Altitude Economy Industry (2024-2027), summarized in evtol.newsconf 50%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"kappa": 0.8684,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
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"bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.5805942396093318,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
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"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.97,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
"expected_date": "2025-04-01",
"measurement_criterion": "EHang publicly announces Air Operator Certificate (AOC) issued by CAAC for commercial passenger operations of EH216-S"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
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"posterior_prob": 0.49591772921172006,
"posterior_logit": -0.016329445998439884,
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"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
"predictor_n_resolved": 14
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.073 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.034 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.024 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.023 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.005 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Autonomous 2027-12] [235_033] Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. [240_037] Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [242_012] Flying | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.640 | manifold | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030? | 85% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.631 | manifold | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle? | 70% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.594 | manifold | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST | 46% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.592 | manifold | Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.577 | edgar_8k | Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) (CIK 0001759509) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.572 | polymarket | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-31 |
| 0.560 | manifold | Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026? | 95% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.559 | polymarket | Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | 27% | mentions | pending | 2025-07-16 |
| 0.558 | polymarket | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.558 | polymarket | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
Raw metadata
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"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.",
"conv_cues": "heading towards",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "2027",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "EHang EH216-S obtains Air Operator Certificate enabling commercial pilotless air taxi service",
"source": "https://zagdaily.com/zag-air/ehang-secures-chinas-first-air-operator-certificates-for-pilotless-electric-air-taxis/ — EHang secures China's first Air Operator Certificates",
"status": "overdue",
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{
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"label": "EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)",
"source": "https://www.ehang.com/news/1180.html — EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Completes Debut Flight in Downtown Shanghai",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2026-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
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"measurement_criterion": "EHang and Shanghai Hynfar Aviation begin trial pilotless eVTOL flights from Longhua Airport in downtown Shanghai"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
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"expected_date": "2026-11-30",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Auto
... (truncated)