← Cockpit
235_033predictionAuto/TransportAI-timing

Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
51.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 51.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2025-04-01overdueEHang EH216-S obtains Air Operator Certificate enabling commercial pilotless air taxi service
    How: EHang publicly announces Air Operator Certificate (AOC) issued by CAAC for commercial passenger operations of EH216-S
    Source: https://zagdaily.com/zag-air/ehang-secures-chinas-first-air-operator-certificates-for-pilotless-electric-air-taxis/ — EHang secures China's first Air Operator Certificatesconf 97%
  2. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingEH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)
    How: EHang and Shanghai Hynfar Aviation begin trial pilotless eVTOL flights from Longhua Airport in downtown Shanghai
    Source: https://www.ehang.com/news/1180.html — EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Completes Debut Flight in Downtown Shanghaiconf 85%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAutoFlight Prosperity 5-passenger eVTOL achieves CAAC airworthiness certification
    How: CAAC issues type certificate for AutoFlight Prosperity multi-seat eVTOL enabling commercial passenger operations
    Source: https://evtol.news/news/china-evtol-aircraft-round-up — AutoFlight Prosperity targeting airworthiness certification by 2026, ops by 2027-2028conf 55%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2027-11-30pendingMulti-city Chinese eVTOL taxi commercial revenue services operational across ≥3 hubs
    How: Paid passenger eVTOL taxi services operating in Guangzhou + Hefei + Shanghai (or equivalent ≥3 cities) on a recurring schedule
    Source: https://newatlas.com/aircraft/ehang-eh216s-evtol-commercial-flight-approval/ — Pilotless air taxi gains approval for commercial flight opsconf 60%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingChina launches 100+ commercial low-altitude flight applications under 2024-2027 Action Plan
    How: Chinese government / Shanghai municipal authorities report ≥100 commercial low-altitude flight service applications operational
    Source: Shanghai Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Low-Altitude Economy Industry (2024-2027), summarized in evtol.newsconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 52%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.7%+2.1pp
Network propagation: 49.6% → 51.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z49.6%-8.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.496 blend=0.496 LLR=-0.342 κ=0.87 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.3252132768862561,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5805942396093318,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.8423479999999999,
      "label": "EHang EH216-S obtains Air Operator Certificate enabling commercial pilotless air taxi service",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
      "expected_date": "2025-04-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "EHang publicly announces Air Operator Certificate (AOC) issued by CAAC for commercial passenger operations of EH216-S"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.49591772921172006,
  "posterior_logit": -0.016329445998439884,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.49591772921172006,
  "blended_posterior": 0.49591772921172006,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.073
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6500.050-0.068
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.043
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.030
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6500.050-0.024

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.034
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.024
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.023
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.005
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.003

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026robotaxi_deployment
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Autonomous 2027-12] [235_033] Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. [240_037] Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [242_012] Flyingpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.640manifoldWill Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?85%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.631manifoldWill I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?70%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.594manifoldWill I qualify for the 2027 USA TST46%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.592manifoldWill the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?3%mentionspending2026-05-28
0.577edgar_8kLyft, Inc. (LYFT) (CIK 0001759509)mentionspending2026-06-04
0.572polymarketWill Putin visit China by May 31?100%mentionspending2026-03-31
0.560manifoldWill Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?95%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.559polymarketWill the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?27%mentionspending2025-07-16
0.558polymarketZhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards100%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.558polymarketZhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards100%mentionspending2026-05-16

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "EV talls moving closer to commercial launch. So in China, we see this four EV tall taxi heading towards operations in 2027.",
  "conv_cues": "heading towards",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EHang EH216-S obtains Air Operator Certificate enabling commercial pilotless air taxi service",
      "source": "https://zagdaily.com/zag-air/ehang-secures-chinas-first-air-operator-certificates-for-pilotless-electric-air-taxis/ — EHang secures China's first Air Operator Certificates",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "expected_date": "2025-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EHang publicly announces Air Operator Certificate (AOC) issued by CAAC for commercial passenger operations of EH216-S"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EH216-S debut sightseeing flight in downtown Shanghai (Huangpu River / Longhua Airport)",
      "source": "https://www.ehang.com/news/1180.html — EH216-S Pilotless eVTOL Completes Debut Flight in Downtown Shanghai",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "EHang and Shanghai Hynfar Aviation begin trial pilotless eVTOL flights from Longhua Airport in downtown Shanghai"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Auto
... (truncated)