S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026scenariorobotaxi_deployment
Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
40.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 28
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Tesla unsupervised FSD in 50+ US cities. Currently expanding from Austin pilot.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_024 Electric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than ow — Peter Diamandis | 46.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.196 |
| prereq | 242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to — Peter Diamandis | 46.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.192 |
| prereq | 234_040 Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in A — Elon Musk | 38.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.154 |
| prereq | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K — Elon Musk | 31.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (28)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_026 | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_024 | Electric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than owning a car (cited Diamandis research) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_040 | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_020 | Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | INF_065 | Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers — starting with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Dallas. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_002 | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | INF_067 | Uber will execute "utilization guarantee agreements" with major charging networks — EVgo in the US; Electra, Hubber, and Ionity in Europe — giving autonomous fleets prioritized access to power grids and converting charging networks into fleet-demand-ce... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_008 | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_010 | Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 234_031 | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_020 | Autonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries Uber operates in) | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_025 | Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 242_058 | Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AUT_022 | 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_034 | Autonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_004 | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_014 | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 239_013 | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AUT_013 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... | Auto/Transport | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.628 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post7 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-10-25 |
| 0.609 | arxiv | CityGen: Structure-Guided City-Style Synthesis for Cross-City Autonomous Driving | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.606 | github_release | facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-01-18 |
| 0.598 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33.post2 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-12-03 |
| 0.595 | arxiv | Real-world Latency Analysis of Vehicular Visible Light Communication with Multiple LED Transmitters and an Event-Based Camera | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.592 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31.post1 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-07-08 |
| 0.588 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.587 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.32.post1 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-08-14 |
| 0.581 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-11-30 |
| 0.581 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post1 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-12-31 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotaxi_phase_1",
"fork_key": "robotaxi",
"dimension": "robotaxi_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Robotaxi",
"family_order": 1
}