Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years

Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down. So, within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down. So, within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "every new car autonomous-ready",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down. So, within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down. So, within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "Within 10 years (by 2036)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "242_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Automotive LiDAR unit price reaches sub-$500 mass production",
      "source": "Luminar Halo $500 by 2026, Hesai/Chinese cost cuts",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/solid-state-lidar-microvision-adas",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tier-1 supplier (Luminar, Hesai, Innoviz, Valeo) ships >=1M units of automotive LiDAR at <=$500 ASP per unit, confirmed in 10-Q/annual filings"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Automotive LiDAR unit price falls to $250 in mass production",
      "source": "Industry forecast $250 LiDAR by 2028 post-mass production",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://patentpc.com/blog/the-cost-of-self-driving-technology-how-much-do-av-components-really-cost-market-breakdown",
      "expected_date": "2029-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
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      "measurement_criterion": "Tier-1 supplier 10-Q/IR disclosure shows automotive-grade LiDAR ASP <=$250/unit at >=1M annual volume; analyst consensus (Yole, Mordor, McKinsey) confirms"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Automotive LiDAR market crosses $5B annual revenue (ADAS adoption proxy)",
      "source": "Mordor: $1.23B (2025) -
... (truncated)