Predictions
1,607 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPC_008 | Space | SpaceX-milestone-2.5x-rule | SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered … | New Market Pitch | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2005-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| SPC_031 | Space | launch-cost-reusability-kg | SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Or… | SpaceX | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2008-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| FUT_024 | AI | IMO-gold-2025-underestimate-calibration | XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal… | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | C | 100.0% | hit | 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-30 |
| AUT_017 | AI | agentic-RL-sequential-policy | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| ROB_006 | AI | English-new-programming-language | 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes … | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_014 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AI_003 | Macro/Economy | ARR-compression | AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decad… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| AI_009 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-ladder | Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| AUT_020 | Education | Pomodoro-AI-tutor-2x-absorption | AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — hu… | MacKenzie Price | 5/5 | C | 55.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| CMQ_013 | AI | OOM-scaling | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — brid… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_014 | AI/Compute | physical-compute | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, dri… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_015 | AI | algorithmic-efficiency | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effect… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| CMQ_053 | Robotics | Figure-funding | Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| IND_006 | Geopolitics | VC-reallocation-regulatory-capture | Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic l… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| IND_011 | Macro/Economy | iPhone-moment-outcome-based-pricing | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapid… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_013 | AI | DreamerV3-latent-imagination | General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidi… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 88.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_008 | AI | IQ-growth-rate | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | partial | 2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_032 | Macro/Economy | residential-electricity-cost | Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Wash… | Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| SPC_025 | AI | 300-to-1-safety-ratio | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities r… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_056 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% i… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 244_016 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AUT_003 | AI | vibe-coding-delegation | 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomou… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 94.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_004 | Markets/Stocks | algorithmic-equity-headcount-reward | Equity markets will algorithmically reward corporate entities that utilize AI… | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | B | 68.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| AUT_011 | Geopolitics | compute-licensing-dystopias | Severe impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems an… | David Holz | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| AUT_025 | AI | Deep-Utopia-crisis-of-meaning | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous sy… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| AUT_028 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-progression | Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CMQ_026 | Semis | NVIDIA-roadmap | NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ult… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 88.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| CMQ_028 | Semis | NVIDIA-TAM | NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 tril… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_031 | AI/Compute | post-Moore | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CMQ_040 | Semis/Memory | memory-supercycle | AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant glo… | Samsung executives | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_050 | Robotics | fourth-wave-AI | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — project… | Industry analysts (synthesis) | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| CMQ_062 | Quantum | quantum-interference | Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasin… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CYB_015 | Labor/Jobs | bot-on-bot-hiring | The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot ag… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_003 | Biotech/Longevity | NICU-4-hour-genomic-sequencing | Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborn… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| IND_012 | Biotech/Longevity | BioNeMo-Evo2-BRCA1-compression | NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of b… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| IND_014 | Education | every-textbook-obsolete | Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obs… | Joe Liemandt | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| IND_026 | Labor/Jobs | scaffolding-eaten-orchestrators | Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, no… | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 68.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_011 | Macro/Economy | hyperscaler-capex | Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 88.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_016 | Energy | power-as-binding-constraint | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI e… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_040 | Markets/Stocks | DC-M&A | Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control unde… | SoftBank | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_073 | AI | AI-smarter-than-humanity-2030 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smar… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| ROB_002 | Labor/Jobs | code-99-percent-automated | 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the el… | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 40.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| ROB_015 | Labor/Jobs | compressed-industrial-revolution-3yr | The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equiva… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| ROB_016 | Labor/Jobs | Block-intelligence-native-reset | Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller… | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_002 | AI | AI-scaling | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of col… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| SEM_004 | Investing | NVIDIA | Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_005 | AI/Infrastructure | AI-scaling | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-ce… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_006 | AI/Finance | economy | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by adva… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime i… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-08-31 |
| SEM_011 | Capital Markets | NVIDIA | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |