Predictions
55 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND_006 | Geopolitics | VC-reallocation-regulatory-capture | Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic l… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| AUT_011 | Geopolitics | compute-licensing-dystopias | Severe impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems an… | David Holz | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 231_009 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2056-10-31 |
| 232_021 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administrat… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 234_035 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 235_007 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_046 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferat… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_008 | Geopolitics | NVIDIA | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AI_037 | Geopolitics | EU-AI-Act-compliance | EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropi… | Daniella Amodei | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| CMQ_019 | Geopolitics | AI-safety-governance | Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required onc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CYB_026 | Geopolitics | US-moat-open-source-diffusion | The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-ter… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 85.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| FUT_008 | Geopolitics | China-terminal-decline-2036 | China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 1… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| FUT_009 | Geopolitics | localized-warfare-copper-fertilizer-energy | Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localize… | Peter Zeihan | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_014 | Geopolitics | US-political-revolution-1-risk | 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group … | Ian Bremmer | 5/5 | A | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| FUT_015 | Geopolitics | multipolarity-without-multilateralism | Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia… | Ian Bremmer | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_023 | Geopolitics | demographic-bifurcation-wealthy-vs-resource-starved | 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and st… | Ian Bremmer | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| INF_004 | Geopolitics | China-ghost-DCs | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilit… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_033 | Geopolitics | AI-super-PAC-mobilization | Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to en… | Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz) | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_037 | Geopolitics | US-China-AI-arms-race | An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching sup… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_046 | Geopolitics | sovereign-AI-energy-independence | Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independen… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| ROB_021 | Geopolitics | US-China-physical-engineering-race | The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China … | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| SPC_019 | Geopolitics | aerospace-supply-chain-decoupling | Aerospace-sector manufacturing base is being aggressively reoriented away fro… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| 234_001 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 238_048 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Sc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2032-11-30 |
| 240_009 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 240_030 | Geopolitics | AGI | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion o… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30 |
| 229_027 | Geopolitics | humanoids | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Wester… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 232_012 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source mod… | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_007 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_028 | Geopolitics | humanoids | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_042 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_063 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_030 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 229_004 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 240_045 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| COD_AI_003 | Geopolitics | EU-AI-Act-compliance | EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 72.0% | pending | 2026-08-02 – 2026-08-02 |
| 234_037 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| CMQ_018 | Geopolitics | AGI-governance | By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_002 | Geopolitics | AGI-national-security | By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 235_047 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back a… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_012 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_025 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 236_011 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_013 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 236_045 | Geopolitics | economy | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry … | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_032 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_044 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security thre… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_020 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_041 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at gradua… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_039 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |