An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.
Verbatim quote
I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-15hitAndrew Yang signals 2028 candidacy in book / public statementHow: Andrew Yang publishes statement (book excerpt, podcast, op-ed) signaling high likelihood of 2028 run, likely under Forward PartySource: https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09conf 85%Notes: Book excerpts in The Independent and The Times confirm 'odds of running again are high.'
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndependent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026How: Federal Election Commission shows 100+ third-party / independent presidential filings for 2028Source: https://politics1.com/p2028.htmconf 70%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor-network poll shows independent candidate at 15%+ in 2028 head-to-headHow: Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, or major polling firm shows named independent candidate polling >=15% in three-way 2028 hypotheticalSource: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2028conf 45%Notes: Yang's 'outsized despite attacks' demands measurable polling traction.
- 2028-08-01 → 2028-10-31pendingIndependent candidate qualifies for general-election presidential debateHow: Commission on Presidential Debates (or successor) admits an independent / third-party candidate to general-election debate stageSource: https://eposimulation.fandom.com/wiki/Third-Party_Candidates_in_the_2028_U.S_Presidential_Electionconf 20%Notes: Historically rare (Perot 1992). Hard threshold for 'outsized support.'
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.037 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "what do you imagine might unfold over the next few months? Uh I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.",
"conv_cues": "going to be; going to get",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Coming months/2028 cycle",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Andrew Yang signals 2028 candidacy in book / public statement",
"notes": "Book excerpts in The Independent and The Times confirm 'odds of running again are high.'",
"source": "https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09",
"expected_date": "2026-01-31",
"observed_date": "2026-01-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Andrew Yang publishes statement (book excerpt, podcast, op-ed) signaling high likelihood of 2028 run, likely under Forward Party"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Independent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026",
"source": "https://politics1.com/p2028.htm",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://politics1.com/p2028.htm",
"expected_date": "2026-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Federal Election Commission shows 100+ third-party / independent presidential filings for 2028"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks",
"status
... (truncated)