← Cockpit
236_012predictionGeopoliticsAI-timing

An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-01-15hitAndrew Yang signals 2028 candidacy in book / public statement
    How: Andrew Yang publishes statement (book excerpt, podcast, op-ed) signaling high likelihood of 2028 run, likely under Forward Party
    Source: https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09conf 85%
    Notes: Book excerpts in The Independent and The Times confirm 'odds of running again are high.'
  2. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndependent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026
    How: Federal Election Commission shows 100+ third-party / independent presidential filings for 2028
    Source: https://politics1.com/p2028.htmconf 70%
  3. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor-network poll shows independent candidate at 15%+ in 2028 head-to-head
    How: Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, or major polling firm shows named independent candidate polling >=15% in three-way 2028 hypothetical
    Source: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2028conf 45%
    Notes: Yang's 'outsized despite attacks' demands measurable polling traction.
  4. 2028-08-01 → 2028-10-31pendingIndependent candidate qualifies for general-election presidential debate
    How: Commission on Presidential Debates (or successor) admits an independent / third-party candidate to general-election debate stage
    Source: https://eposimulation.fandom.com/wiki/Third-Party_Candidates_in_the_2028_U.S_Presidential_Electionconf 20%
    Notes: Historically rare (Perot 1992). Hard threshold for 'outsized support.'
  5. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.8%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.9% → 50.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.9%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.049
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.013
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.008
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.008
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.669polymarketWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%mentionspending2025-07-08
0.668polymarketWill Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%mentionspending2025-07-08
0.663polymarketWill Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%mentionspending2025-07-03
0.663polymarketWill Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%mentionspending2025-07-03
0.662polymarketWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?5%mentionspending2025-07-08
0.662polymarketWill Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%mentionspending2025-07-08
0.662polymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?16%mentionspending2025-07-08
0.661polymarketWill MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%mentionspending2025-07-03
0.660polymarketWill Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1%mentionspending2025-07-10
0.660polymarketWill Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%mentionspending2025-07-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "what do you imagine might unfold over the next few months? Uh I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "I think that uh there's going to be an independent candidate and they're going to get an outsized amount of support um despite attacks from one side or the other.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be; going to get",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Coming months/2028 cycle",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Andrew Yang signals 2028 candidacy in book / public statement",
      "notes": "Book excerpts in The Independent and The Times confirm 'odds of running again are high.'",
      "source": "https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://ivn.us/posts/andrew-yang-makes-bold-prediction-about-next-presidential-race-2025-01-09",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Andrew Yang publishes statement (book excerpt, podcast, op-ed) signaling high likelihood of 2028 run, likely under Forward Party"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Independent or third-party candidate FEC filings exceed 100 by EOY 2026",
      "source": "https://politics1.com/p2028.htm",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://politics1.com/p2028.htm",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal Election Commission shows 100+ third-party / independent presidential filings for 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks",
      "status
... (truncated)