TK03thesis_killerthesis_killer
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
Prior probability
10.0%
Current probability
10.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 765
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
EU AI Act phase-2 or US executive order imposes 6-18 month capability freeze on frontier model training; compute cap at GPT-5 level.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 10%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.303 |
| killer | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.050 | 0.750 | +0.288 |
| killer | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.280 |
| killer | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts acro — Dario Amodei | 27.6% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.269 |
| killer | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.247 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (765)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 229_047 | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_020 | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. | Education | — |
| killer | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_010 | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | AI | — |
| killer | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| killer | 229_028 | Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| killer | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| killer | 246_047 | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_005 | Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... | AI | — |
| killer | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| killer | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_006 | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | AI | — |
| killer | 238_041 | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) | AI | — |
| killer | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_016 | Block executed massive layoffs explicitly reframing the company as a 'smaller, faster, intelligence-native company' — future corporate dominance will not be determined by human headcount but by the density of elite AI researchers managing vast fleets o... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| killer | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | IND_013 | General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | SPC_025 | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| killer | FUT_023 | 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | FUT_004 | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... | AI | — |
| killer | AUT_016 | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l... | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_002 | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | AI | — |
| killer | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | INF_074 | AGI arrival will produce highly disruptive socioeconomic outcomes — very high GDP growth simultaneous with massive unemployment and inequality — as cognitive labor is automated, requiring structural labor-market and social-safety-net redesign. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| killer | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| killer | CYB_007 | Data-center CPU market expansion refined to $32.5-$60 billion by 2030 — CPUs as indispensable control layer orchestrating multi-step agentic logic, managing conditional branching, and coordinating vast arrays of specialized smaller AI models. | Semis | — |
| killer | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 236_033 | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | AI | — |
| killer | FUT_015 | Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | CMQ_001 | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_054 | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_009 | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_025 | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_033 | Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_034 | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | INF_010 | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. | Energy | — |
| killer | 234_005 | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | AI | — |
| killer | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 237_001 | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_054 | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Space | — |
| killer | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| killer | SEM_033 | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | AI/Physics | — |
| killer | 237_002 | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| killer | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 233_007 | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Education | — |
| killer | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| killer | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_011 | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| killer | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_028 | Lab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental option | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| killer | 244_032 | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| killer | 242_057 | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Space | — |
| killer | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | INF_041 | K-12 education will be rebuilt from first principles using AI systems — institutions like Alpha School shifting from rote white-collar training toward systems-thinking, AI-human symbiosis, and management of intelligence platforms. | Education | — |
| killer | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| killer | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| killer | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| killer | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_048 | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | AI | — |
| killer | 232_043 | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_026 | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Space | — |
| killer | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_056 | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | AI | — |
| killer | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 247_041 | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 238_004 | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| killer | 238_013 | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance | AI | — |
| killer | 241_024 | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Space | — |
| killer | 241_011 | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| killer | 238_018 | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 246_036 | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | AI | — |
| killer | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 247_046 | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | AI | — |
| killer | 231_026 | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_060 | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Space | — |
| killer | 232_018 | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_035 | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | AI | — |
| killer | 246_029 | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_055 | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | AI | — |
| killer | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 233_016 | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | Education | — |
| killer | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_005 | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_001 | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. | AI | — |
| killer | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| killer | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| killer | 241_049 | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | AI | — |
| killer | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| killer | 241_062 | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | AI | — |
| killer | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 242_006 | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | AI | — |
| killer | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| killer | 242_010 | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | AI | — |
| killer | 242_017 | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| killer | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_021 | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| killer | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_042 | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | AI | — |
| killer | 242_046 | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | AI | — |
| killer | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| killer | 242_052 | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | AI | — |
| killer | 242_054 | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | AI | — |
| killer | 247_008 | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | AI | — |
| killer | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 242_059 | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_006 | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_026 | Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 241_047 | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Education | — |
| killer | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_041 | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_043 | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| killer | 244_001 | Technology will always be a part of the human driving experience | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_004 | Race car driving will persist as a sport | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_008 | If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up | Other | — |
| killer | 244_014 | AV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offer | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_016 | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_023 | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_030 | Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world | Other | — |
| killer | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 244_034 | Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite | Other | — |
| killer | 244_035 | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Other | — |
| killer | 244_036 | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | AI | — |
| killer | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_009 | Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_052 | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_053 | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 229_007 | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 246_051 | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_050 | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_035 | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 246_026 | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_027 | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_010 | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 229_036 | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Space | — |
| killer | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 248_046 | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Space | — |
| killer | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| killer | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| killer | 234_021 | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_030 | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_031 | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| killer | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_046 | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | AI | — |
| killer | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_023 | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_006 | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_021 | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Space | — |
| killer | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_014 | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_017 | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| killer | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_012 | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| killer | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_010 | 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| killer | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| killer | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| killer | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| killer | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| killer | 241_005 | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | AI | — |
| killer | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| killer | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 237_024 | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | AI | — |
| killer | 237_029 | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_007 | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | AI | — |
| killer | AI_031 | AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_046 | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_017 | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_030 | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | AI | — |
| killer | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| killer | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_014 | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 239_003 | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | AI | — |
| killer | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_017 | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Energy | — |
| killer | 239_006 | AI will solve everything including longevity | AI | — |
| killer | 239_007 | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system | AI | — |
| killer | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| killer | 239_026 | Future will be very entertaining | Other | — |
| killer | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 240_003 | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | AI | — |
| killer | 240_005 | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | AI | — |
| killer | 240_010 | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 240_014 | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | AI | — |
| killer | 240_016 | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | AI | — |
| killer | 247_030 | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | AI | — |
| killer | 240_020 | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_025 | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | AI | — |
| killer | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| killer | 240_048 | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_050 | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| killer | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| killer | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_036 | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | AI | — |
| killer | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| killer | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| killer | 241_045 | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | AI | — |
| killer | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| killer | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_040 | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | AI | — |
| killer | 240_019 | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | AI | — |
| killer | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_021 | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | AI | — |
| killer | 242_014 | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 232_013 | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| killer | 247_028 | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | AI | — |
| killer | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_025 | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Space | — |
| killer | 240_023 | 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| killer | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| killer | 246_025 | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | AI | — |
| killer | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_024 | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_022 | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_040 | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| killer | 241_041 | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | AI | — |
| killer | 241_013 | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | AI | — |
| killer | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_029 | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | AI | — |
| killer | 241_032 | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | AI | — |
| killer | 246_044 | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_015 | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_009 | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_052 | $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_004 | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | AI | — |
| killer | FUT_021 | Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... | AI | — |
| killer | 240_033 | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 229_006 | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| killer | 244_027 | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| killer | 231_045 | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | AI | — |
| killer | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 242_039 | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Space | — |
| killer | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| killer | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| killer | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| killer | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 234_024 | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 243_039 | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Robotics | — |
| killer | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_017 | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_005 | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis to play sports or perform complex physical manipulations at amazing levels to truly mirror human brain architecture; software alone cannot achieve full ... | Robotics | — |
| killer | 239_015 | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 239_016 | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 239_017 | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Other | — |
| killer | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 239_018 | Universal High Income will be implemented | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_019 | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 243_004 | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_053 | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 239_023 | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_043 | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 239_024 | Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_009 | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 241_033 | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | AI | — |
| killer | 241_034 | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | AI | — |
| killer | SPC_029 | 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 239_029 | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on Earth | AI | — |
| killer | 236_037 | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 248_050 | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_008 | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 239_032 | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | AI | — |
| killer | 248_006 | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| killer | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| killer | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_021 | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | AI/China | — |
| killer | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| killer | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| killer | 242_001 | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production | AI | — |
| killer | 237_006 | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_011 | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_012 | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_057 | Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_042 | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_015 | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_053 | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
| killer | 240_006 | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | AI | — |
| killer | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 241_008 | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | AI | — |
| killer | 229_040 | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Robotics | — |
| killer | FUT_002 | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... | AI | — |
| killer | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | CMQ_008 | Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| killer | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_001 | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | AI | — |
| killer | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 240_013 | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs | AI | — |
| killer | 241_046 | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | AI | — |
| killer | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_025 | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 245_019 | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_004 | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 229_024 | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_043 | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 230_001 | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | AI | — |
| killer | 230_003 | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 230_027 | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_001 | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 231_016 | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_025 | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | AI | — |
| killer | 231_046 | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_054 | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_044 | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_006 | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | AI | — |
| killer | 234_007 | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | AI | — |
| killer | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 234_026 | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | AI | — |
| killer | 234_027 | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_044 | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | AI | — |
| killer | 234_047 | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | AI | — |
| killer | 234_048 | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | AI | — |
| killer | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| killer | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| killer | 236_001 | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 237_005 | Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 237_009 | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 237_016 | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 237_018 | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_020 | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_023 | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_002 | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights | AI | — |
| killer | 238_005 | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | AI | — |
| killer | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_012 | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | AI | — |
| killer | 238_014 | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | AI | — |
| killer | 238_022 | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_024 | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| killer | 238_031 | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Other | — |
| killer | 238_034 | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | AI | — |
| killer | 238_037 | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_039 | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | AI | — |
| killer | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| killer | 238_043 | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_044 | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_045 | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_060 | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| killer | 239_002 | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | AI | — |
| killer | 239_004 | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 239_005 | AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree | AI | — |
| killer | 239_010 | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 239_021 | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_022 | Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency | AI | — |
| killer | 239_025 | AI will solve back pain | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 239_028 | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_015 | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | AI | — |
| killer | 240_024 | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | AI | — |
| killer | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| killer | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_046 | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 240_047 | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Robotics | — |
| killer | 241_035 | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | AI | — |
| killer | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 242_018 | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstraction | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_020 | Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_027 | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_044 | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | AI | — |
| killer | 244_015 | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_001 | Synthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human history | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_008 | More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_018 | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_020 | Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry | Other | — |
| killer | 245_021 | Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_030 | Humans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental change | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_035 | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_043 | Breaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface area | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_023 | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_028 | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_011 | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | AI | — |
| killer | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| killer | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_057 | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | AI | — |
| killer | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_028 | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 248_032 | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 248_034 | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_036 | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_049 | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_011 | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_012 | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_022 | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_072 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. | AI | — |
| killer | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| killer | 245_031 | 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_017 | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_013 | Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_010 | Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_002 | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | AI | — |
| killer | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| killer | 234_018 | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| killer | 248_044 | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| killer | 248_047 | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_004 | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| killer | 233_021 | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_010 | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_009 | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| killer | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| killer | 240_057 | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | AI | — |
| killer | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| killer | INF_071 | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin to merge with AI; computational intelligence will multiply a thousandfold, triggering a technological singularity where growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. | AI | — |
| killer | AI_006 | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... | AI | — |
| killer | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| killer | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_030 | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_031 | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_032 | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_034 | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_021 | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_019 | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| killer | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| killer | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_044 | Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombs | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_040 | Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_037 | Mosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_034 | Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | Other | — |
| killer | 245_032 | Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education | Other | — |
| killer | 246_048 | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_002 | Every company should or will be an AI company | AI | — |
| killer | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_012 | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | AI | — |
| killer | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_043 | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | AI | — |
| killer | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_041 | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Space | — |
| killer | 240_045 | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_031 | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | AI | — |
| killer | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_030 | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_021 | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | AI | — |
| killer | 247_029 | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_004 | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | AI | — |
| killer | 238_071 | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | AI | — |
| killer | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_050 | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck close | Other | — |
| killer | 238_038 | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | AI | — |
| killer | AUT_012 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... | AI | — |
| killer | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 238_027 | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | AI | — |
| killer | 237_030 | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| killer | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| killer | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| killer | 235_037 | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_014 | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_015 | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_010 | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| killer | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| killer | 248_025 | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Other | — |
| killer | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| killer | 248_027 | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Other | — |
| killer | 240_052 | Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| killer | 248_031 | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_004 | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| killer | AUT_025 | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... | AI | — |
| killer | 248_048 | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| killer | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| killer | CMQ_018 | By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 247_014 | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 235_035 | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| killer | 247_026 | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | AI | — |
| killer | 231_015 | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
| killer | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| killer | 248_029 | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_040 | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | AI | — |
| killer | 232_059 | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_003 | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| killer | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | AUT_009 | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... | AI | — |
| killer | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_002 | By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| killer | 230_022 | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | AI_028 | Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... | Crypto | — |
| killer | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | CMQ_016 | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| killer | 240_053 | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless | AI | — |
| killer | 239_020 | AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do | AI | — |
| killer | 246_049 | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_018 | SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. | Space | — |
| killer | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | AI_008 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030. | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_001 | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... | AI | — |
| killer | AUT_027 | Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | AI_032 | Astromech (co-founded with Harvard geneticist George Church) will quickly become a trillion-dollar enterprise by applying AI to predictive biology — leveraging massive time-series genomic data from de-extinction projects to predict pathogen mutation pa... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | IND_022 | AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine convergence enabling: mental transfer from brain to brain, integration of nanobots into human bloodstream for perfect biological health maintenance, ach... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
| killer | IND_028 | Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI and advanced nanotechnology — occurs in the 2030s; once AGI crosses into superintelligence, it will solve fundamental mechanisms of biological decay, leading to worldwide eradi... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | SPC_011 | Lunar-surface factories leveraging local resources will manufacture satellites and deploy them directly into deep space via electromagnetic mass drivers — scaling to 500-1000 Terawatts/year of AI data centers in space, allowing humanity to 'meaningfull... | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.660 | polymarket | Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? | 44% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.648 | manifold | Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.622 | polymarket | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | 13% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.600 | polymarket | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-20 |
| 0.600 | polymarket | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.584 | polymarket | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.581 | polymarket | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-04 |
| 0.581 | polymarket | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-01 |
| 0.572 | polymarket | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.571 | polymarket | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-09 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "EU AI Act phase-2 or US executive order imposes 6-18 month capability freeze on frontier model training; compute cap at GPT-5 level.",
"time_window": "2026-2028",
"scenario_name": "AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)",
"affected_domains": "AI (313), Markets (122), Labor (106), Biotech (50), Geopolitics (41)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Long ACN/IBM",
"straddle NVDA around regulatory deadlines"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Monthly — AI policy hearings; EO tracker",
"affected_pred_count": 765,
"early_warning_signals": "EU AI Act enforcement escalation; US safety-testing mandates; SB-1047-style California legislation replicated federally",
"countervailing_factors": "AGI race framing dominates policy; bipartisan US push for \"winning\" over safety",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_003",
"229_004",
"229_006",
"229_007",
"229_013",
"229_015",
"229_024",
"229_025",
"229_026",
"229_028",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"ACN",
"IBM (compliant enterprise AI)",
"European defense/energy"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"NVDA",
"AMD",
"META",
"MSFT",
"GOOGL",
"PLTR"
]
}