Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers
Predictor: Andrej Karpathy · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | if you're building new software, you should target the agents. The agents are the new consumers... The agents are the new users of the social networks. If you're building something, don't build for humans. Build for the AI.
Verbatim quote
if you're building new software, you should target the agents. The agents are the new consumers... The agents are the new users of the social networks. If you're building something, don't build for humans. Build for the AI.
Predictor: Andrej Karpathy
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrej Karpathy is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-10-15hitKarpathy publicly articulates 'agents are the new consumers' thesisHow: Karpathy publishes public statement/talk advising founders to build APIs, machine-readable docs, and target agents over humans (X posts, podcasts, conference talks)Source: https://www.news.aakashg.com/p/master-ai-agent-distribution-channelconf 90%
- 2025-12-15hitMCP reaches 97M+ monthly SDK downloads with 10,000+ active serversHow: MCP downloads exceed 50M/month across Python+TypeScript SDKs and active MCP server count exceeds 5,000, per Anthropic/Linux Foundation Agentic AI Foundation reportsSource: https://www.pento.ai/blog/a-year-of-mcp-2025-reviewconf 95%
- 2025-12-15hitAnthropic donates MCP to Linux Foundation Agentic AI Foundation; OpenAI/Google/MSFT/AWS/Cloudflare joinHow: Public press release confirms MCP donated to Linux Foundation as open standard with major frontier-lab adoption (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Microsoft, Cloudflare)Source: https://www.pento.ai/blog/a-year-of-mcp-2025-reviewconf 90%
- 2026-07-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-10-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingGartner: 40% of enterprise apps embed AI agents by end of 2026How: Gartner / IDC / Forrester publishes report confirming >=30% of enterprise applications have embedded task-specific AI agents (up from <5% in 2025)Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/40-enterprise-apps-embed-ai-181310288.htmlconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: Major SaaS vendor publishes 'agent-first' API spec / agent.md standardHow: Top-10 SaaS vendor (Salesforce, Stripe, Shopify, HubSpot, Notion, etc.) publishes dedicated agent-facing API documentation explicitly designed for autonomous AI consumption; press release or developer blog postSource: https://dev.to/blackgirlbytes/my-predictions-for-mcp-and-ai-assisted-coding-in-2026-16bmconf 65%
- 2027-01-21pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingCascade: Agent-driven traffic exceeds 10% of API volume on a major dev platformHow: Stripe, Cloudflare, Vercel, or similar publish public stats showing >=10% of inbound API requests originate from autonomous AI agents (User-Agent or auth-token classification)Source: https://www.ruh.ai/blogs/ai-agent-protocols-2026-complete-guideconf 40%
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | 30.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.196 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.074 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.065 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.052 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.674 | arxiv | Coding with "Enemy": Can Human Developers Detect AI Agent Sabotage? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.670 | arxiv | From Intent to Execution: Composing Agentic Workflows with Agent Recommendation | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.662 | arxiv | BUILD-AND-FIND: An Effort-Aware Protocol for Evaluating Agent-Managed Codebases | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "The zeitgeist right now has this idea that increasingly Andre and others speak to this point that if you're building new software, you should target the agents. The agents are the new consumers... If you're building something, don't build for humans. Build for the AI.",
"cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"verbatim": "if you're building new software, you should target the agents. The agents are the new consumers... The agents are the new users of the social networks. If you're building something, don't build for humans. Build for the AI.",
"conv_cues": "should target",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Now",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
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{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"
... (truncated)