Daily Intake

Three-step daily routine: copy the prompt → paste into your LLM of choice → paste JSON response back here. The system parses, validates, and applies probability deltas to the graph. Each apply creates an immutable intake_sessions row + prob_history rows + an audit_log entry.
Date
2026-06-07
Watchlist size
120
active-window predictions
Indicators tracked
live
Review queue
47884
doc-node links
Past sessions
last 5
1 · Today's prompt

Paste this into Claude / GPT / Gemini. Wait for the JSON response. Paste the JSON into step 2 below. The prompt is server-rendered fresh on every page load.
# Daily Probabilistic Roadmap Intelligence Report — 2026-06-07

You are an intelligence analyst supporting a personal probabilistic forecasting system that tracks ~1,400 predictions across ten domains over 2026–2031:

**AI** · **Robotics** · **Energy** · **Semis** · **Labor** · **Markets** · **Geopolitics** · **Auto** · **Space** · **Biotech**

The system updates daily probabilities for tracked events, identifies new events worth tracking, refreshes macro indicators, and detects regime shifts. Your output drives those updates.

**Quality bar**: calibrated honesty beats coverage. An empty `event_updates: []` is better than fabricated activity. Cite **publicly verifiable URLs** for every substantive claim. If you can't find independent corroboration, mark `evidence_strength: "speculative"` rather than omitting.

---

## Today's date
**2026-06-07**

## Active watchlist (top 120 by composite signal × in-window)

```
ID | domain | predictor | window | prob | title (truncated)
```

CMQ_029 | Semis/Memory | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2027-12 | 74% | DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can m...
CMQ_040 | Semis/Memory | Samsung executives | 2025-01..2027-12 | 62% | AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory...
SEM_024 | Semis/Markets | Joseph Moore | 2026-01..2026-12 | 82% | Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending i...
SEM_020 | Semis | Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis) | 2026-01..2026-12 | 74% | Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire ad...
SEM_003 | Energy/Compute | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2026-01..2030-12 | 86% | Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and vol...
CMQ_026 | Semis | Jensen Huang | 2025-01..2028-12 | 87% | NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) ...
INF_011 | Macro/Economy | Morgan Stanley | 2025-01..2026-12 | 92% | Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-...
CMQ_023 | AI/Compute | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2026-12 | 65% | Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'A...
SEM_013 | Policy/Semis | Jensen Huang | 2025-01..2030-12 | 73% | Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semicond...
INF_016 | Energy | Elon Musk | 2025-01..2030-10 | 57% | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; ...
CMQ_034 | Semis/Memory | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2027-12 | 84% | HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-y...
SEM_026 | Semis/Products | Joseph Moore | 2026-01..2027-12 | 71% | Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in co...
SEM_004 | Investing | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2025-01..2030-12 | 77% | Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastruc...
INF_037 | Geopolitics | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2026-01..2030-11 | 58% | An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintellig...
INF_017 | Energy | Elon Musk | 2026-01..2027-11 | 48% | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale dem...
CMQ_033 | Semis/Memory | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 75% | Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resou...
SEM_005 | AI/Infrastructure | Sam Altman | 2025-01..2028-12 | 72% | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center const...
CMQ_041 | Semis/Memory | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2027-12 | 71% | Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed su...
CMQ_039 | Semis/Packaging | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 71% | TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by...
AUT_015 | Defense | Eric Schmidt | 2026-01..2031-11 | 70% | Complete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security pivots aw...
ROB_022 | Defense | Eric Schmidt | 2026-01..2032-09 | 75% | Maintaining technological competitiveness in Physical AI is an acute, existential matte...
CMQ_025 | AI/Compute | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2032-12 | 49% | The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — lega...
CMQ_036 | Semis/Memory | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 68% | SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurem...
CMQ_030 | AI/Compute | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2026-12 | 34% | In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the ...
IND_012 | Biotech/Longevity | Jensen Huang | 2025-01..2030-06 | 68% | NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology int...
CMQ_035 | Semis/Memory | Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2027-12 | 68% | HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and cap...
AUT_016 | AI | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2026-09 | 81% | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of genera...
CMQ_017 | Energy | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2026-01..2026-11 | 52% | US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hu...
SEM_028 | Capital Markets | Joseph Moore | 2026-01..2026-12 | 61% | Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth co...
INF_003 | Macro/Economy | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2030-12 | 43% | The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few hundred bil...
CMQ_001 | AI | Sam Altman | 2026-01..2026-09 | 45% | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performi...
CMQ_020 | Macro/Economy | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 67% | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the glob...
CMQ_042 | AI/Compute | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 35% | As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away f...
AUT_028 | AI | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2025-01..2030-11 | 48% | Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion, and even...
SEM_001 | AI/Compute | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2026-01..2030-12 | 55% | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero eve...
FUT_010 | Energy | Ramez Naam | 2026-01..2031-10 | 70% | Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; p...
CMQ_009 | AI | Demis Hassabis | 2026-01..2028-08 | 60% | Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonse...
SEM_023 | Semis/Markets | Joseph Moore | 2026-01..2027-12 | 63% | No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'cryst...
CMQ_014 | AI/Compute | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2024-01..2027-12 | 50% | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exp...
INF_031 | AI | Dario Amodei | 2026-01..2028-10 | 64% | The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting without pro...
AI_009 | AI | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2024-01..2029-08 | 49% | Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly from $10 ...
246_001 | Markets/Stocks | Peter Diamandis | 2026-01..2026-09 | 79% | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.
FUT_012 | Energy | Ramez Naam | 2026-01..2031-11 | 45% | Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renew...
CMQ_005 | AI | Dario Amodei | 2026-01..2027-10 | 56% | AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (b...
CMQ_046 | Semis/Memory | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 63% | Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exaby...
AUT_008 | Auto/Transport | Dara Khosrowshahi | 2026-01..2056-11 | 76% | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro ma...
INF_004 | Geopolitics | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2026-11 | 39% | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sittin...
SEM_031 | Semis/Hardware | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2026-12 | 67% | AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving ha...
CMQ_044 | AI/Compute | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2030-12 | 65% | Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or eve...
CMQ_028 | Semis | Jensen Huang | 2025-01..2027-12 | 72% | NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgr...
CMQ_015 | AI | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2024-01..2027-08 | 50% | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective comput...
CMQ_024 | AI/Compute | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2026-12 | 54% | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digita...
CYB_019 | Robotics | Demis Hassabis | 2026-01..2030-08 | 44% | Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the ...
SEM_022 | AI/Architecture | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2029-12 | 65% | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density —...
AI_017 | Semis | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2027-12 | 75% | NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the...
INF_013 | Energy | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2030-10 | 59% | Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China th...
FUT_014 | Geopolitics | Ian Bremmer | 2026-01..2028-11 | 55% | 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal...
SEM_037 | Labor/Jobs | Emad Mostaque | 2026-01..2027-12 | 47% | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it...
CMQ_045 | Semis | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 43% | Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially d...
SEM_025 | Capital Markets | Joseph Moore | 2026-01..2026-12 | 55% | Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
INF_012 | Energy | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2028-11 | 46% | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 202...
CMQ_004 | AI | Dario Amodei | 2026-01..2027-11 | 28% | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domain...
SEM_002 | AI | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2025-01..2026-09 | 56% | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college gradu...
INF_030 | AI | Dario Amodei | 2026-01..2026-09 | 82% | By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities previou...
SEM_036 | AI/Cognition | Eric Schmidt | 2026-01..2028-12 | 70% | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).
236_008 | Markets/Stocks | Peter Diamandis | 2026-04..2027-09 | 53% | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online
234_014 | Markets/Stocks | Peter Diamandis | 2026-01..2031-11 | 59% | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period
CMQ_013 | AI | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 2024-01..2027-10 | 40% | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4...
244_020 | Auto/Transport | Peter Diamandis | 2026-01..2030-10 | 63% | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years
SEM_047 | AI/Hardware | Jimmy Ba | 2025-01..2028-12 | 71% | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single...
237_025 | AI | Peter Diamandis | 2026-01..2026-11 | 59% | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as or...
240_054 | AI | Peter Diamandis | 2026-04..2040-10 | 57% | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices
CMQ_056 | AI/Compute | Dario Amodei | 2026-01..2026-12 | 19% | Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable ...
238_011 | AI | Peter Diamandis | 2026-04..2027-09 | 47% | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (...
232_043 | Labor/Jobs | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2027-12 | 54% | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promo...
246_055 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-04..2030-11 | 45% | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.
234_042 | Macro/Economy | Peter Diamandis | 2026-04..2027-09 | 47% | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security
SEM_033 | AI/Physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2027-12 | 56% | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., G...
245_042 | Biotech/Longevity | Peter Diamandis | 2026-04..2031-12 | 55% | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion)
247_045 | Robotics | Peter Diamandis | 2026-01..2026-11 | 32% | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
SEM_045 | Economy/Org | Salim Ismail | 2026-01..2026-12 | 54% | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by...
CMQ_021 | Macro/Economy | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 71% | AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroeconomic va...
CMQ_022 | AI | Elon Musk | 2026-01..2030-10 | 34% | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute dep...
CMQ_055 | Robotics | Brett Adcock | 2026-01..2028-09 | 29% | Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user in...
233_005 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2027-08 | 51% | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.
231_037 | Space | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2030-10 | 58% | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own.
ROB_021 | Geopolitics | Marc Andreessen | 2026-01..2032-10 | 67% | The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China op...
INF_043 | AI | Marc Andreessen | 2026-01..2031-10 | 47% | Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explos...
239_033 | Robotics | Elon Musk | 2026-01..2026-08 | 43% | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world
238_023 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2026-11 | 49% | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)
247_039 | Crypto | Dave Blundin | — | 54% | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right
231_026 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-06..2026-06 | 52% | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.
238_018 | Auto/Transport | Dave Blundin | 2026-04..2030-11 | 48% | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars
248_011 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2026-10 | 60% | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this ...
238_064 | Labor/Jobs | Dave Blundin | 2026-04..2029-03 | 51% | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep t...
231_041 | Labor/Jobs | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2030-12 | 54% | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation...
INF_034 | Real Estate | Equinix | 2026-01..2026-12 | 54% | Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed f...
ROB_007 | Robotics | Jensen Huang | 2026-01..2035-09 | 41% | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitionin...
SEM_049 | AI/Software | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2028-12 | 56% | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via...
235_004 | Labor/Jobs | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2029-12 | 46% | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI con...
SEM_043 | Space/Compute | Gwynne Shotwell | 2026-01..2031-12 | 54% | SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory p...
CMQ_032 | Macro/Economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2030-12 | 75% | Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of ...
240_022 | Markets/Stocks | Dave Blundin | 2026-04..2028-09 | 45% | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars
240_042 | Macro/Economy | Elon Musk | 2026-01..2036-12 | 50% | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)
242_059 | Auto/Transport | Dave Blundin | 2026-04..2030-11 | 45% | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages
248_030 | Geopolitics | Dave Blundin | 2026-06..2026-06 | 50% | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accel...
235_005 | AI | Dave Blundin | 2026-01..2026-09 | 49% | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
CMQ_010 | AI | Demis Hassabis | 2026-01..2035-11 | 49% | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthrou...
CYB_008 | Semis | Morgan Stanley | 2026-01..2026-12 | 69% | Hyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps from approxim...
CYB_022 | AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2026-01..2028-11 | 76% | Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by...
AI_033 | Education | MacKenzie Price | 2026-01..2026-05 | 66% | AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2...
CYB_012 | AI | Alex Finn | 2026-01..2029-08 | 44% | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, an...
ROB_018 | Macro/Economy | Jason Calacanis | 2026-01..2028-12 | 52% | The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corporation wher...
239_007 | AI | Elon Musk | 2026-04..2027-09 | 43% | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system
FUT_004 | AI | Amy Webb | 2026-01..2031-09 | 62% | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — L...
239_006 | AI | Elon Musk | 2026-04..2027-09 | 45% | AI will solve everything including longevity
239_003 | AI | Elon Musk | 2026-01..2026-09 | 47% | We are currently in AI hard takeoff
239_026 | Other | Elon Musk | — | 55% | Future will be very entertaining
AUT_021 | AI | Marc Andreessen | 2026-01..2026-11 | 57% | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically...
CMQ_052 | Robotics | Brett Adcock | 2026-01..2026-11 | 22% | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 2...

## Macro indicator panel

| ID | Value | Band | As of | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRED.CPIAUCSL | 332.407 | — | 2026-04-01 | Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers |
| FRED.DFII10 | 2.11 | — | 2026-06-04 | 10-Year Real Treasury Yield (TIPS) |
| FRED.DGS10 | 4.47 | — | 2026-06-04 | 10-Year Nominal Treasury Yield |
| FRED.INDPRO | 102.4963 | — | 2026-04-01 | Industrial Production Index |
| FRED.T10Y2Y | 0.38 | — | 2026-06-05 | 10y minus 2y Treasury spread (recession indicator) |
| FRED.VIXCLS | 15.4 | — | 2026-06-04 | CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close |
| BLS.CES0500000003 | 37.53 | — | 2026-05-01 | Average Hourly Earnings, All Employees, Total Private |
| BLS.CES5051300001 | 900.1 | — | 2026-05-01 | Telecommunications (NAICS 517) — Information backbone |
| BLS.CES5051900001 | 180.6 | — | 2026-05-01 | Other Information Services (NAICS 519) — Information residual |
| BLS.CES6054110001 | 1237.2 | — | 2026-05-01 | Legal Services (NAICS 5411) — paralegal/research AI exposure |
| BLS.CES6054120001 | 1114.4 | — | 2026-05-01 | Accounting/Tax Prep/Bookkeeping (NAICS 5412) — automation prone |
| BLS.CES6054140001 | 148.6 | — | 2026-05-01 | Specialized Design Services (NAICS 5414) — generative AI design exposure |
| BLS.CES6054150001 | 2373.9 | — | 2026-05-01 | Computer Systems Design and Related Services (NAICS 5415) — direct AI build/use |
| BLS.CES6054160001 | 1876.2 | — | 2026-05-01 | Management/Scientific/Technical Consulting (NAICS 5416) — AI augments consultants |
| BLS.CES6056110001 | 632.2 | — | 2026-05-01 | Office Administrative Services (NAICS 5611) — clerical proxy |
| BLS.CES6056130001 | 3191.1 | — | 2026-05-01 | Employment Services (NAICS 5613) — temp/staffing (recession leading) |
| BLS.CES6056140001 | 625.6 | — | 2026-05-01 | Business Support Services (NAICS 5614) — call centers, transcription |
| BLS.LNS11300000 | 61.8 | — | 2026-05-01 | Labor Force Participation Rate, 16+, SA |
| BLS.LNS12300000 | 59.2 | — | 2026-05-01 | Employment-Population Ratio, 16+, SA |
| BLS.LNS14000000 | 4.3 | — | 2026-05-01 | Civilian Unemployment Rate, 16+, SA |
| BLS.LNS14000016 | 13.2 | — | 2026-05-01 | Unemployment Rate, High school grad no college (25+, SA) — lower-skill |
| BLS.LNS14000017 | 10.9 | — | 2026-05-01 | Unemployment Rate, Some college or associate degree (25+, SA) — mid-skill |
| BLS.LNS14000028 | 3.6 | — | 2026-05-01 | Unemployment Rate, Bachelor's degree+ (25+, SA) — knowledge worker proxy |
| BLS.PRS85006092 | 0.3 | — | 2026-01-01 | Nonfarm Business Productivity, % change from previous quarter |
| FRED.UNRATE | 4.3 | — | 2026-05-01 | Civilian Unemployment Rate |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.M | 348756.32952 | — | 2026-03-01 | Total US Electricity Generation |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.M | 44131.5401 | — | 2026-03-01 | Coal Electricity Generation, US |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.M | 127375.16994 | — | 2026-03-01 | Natural Gas Electricity Generation, US |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.M | 62095.885 | — | 2026-03-01 | Nuclear Electricity Generation, US |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.SUN-US-99.M | 29000.43073 | — | 2026-03-01 | Solar Electricity Generation, US |
| EIA.ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.M | 52219.08743 | — | 2026-03-01 | Wind Electricity Generation, US |
| EIA.ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.M | 13.92 | — | 2026-03-01 | Commercial Electricity Price, US average (data centers) |
| EIA.ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.M | 8.58 | — | 2026-03-01 | Industrial Electricity Price, US average |
| EIA.NG.RNGWHHD.D | 3.07 | — | 2026-06-01 | Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price |
| EIA.PET.RWTC.D | 95.96 | — | 2026-06-01 | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price, Cushing OK |
| FRED.DCOILWTICO | 95.96 | — | 2026-06-01 | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price |

## Latent macro regimes
- **Compute regime** ∈ {abundant, balanced, constrained}
- **Capital regime** ∈ {cheap, balanced, expensive}
- **Geopolitical regime** ∈ {cooperative, transactional, fragmented}
- **Labor displacement regime** ∈ {slow, moderate, fast}

## Review queue
47884 borderline doc-node links pending human adjudication.

## Auto-linked documents per watchlist prediction
### 231_041 — Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing deva
  - [cos 0.66] manifold (2026-05-11): Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026? [implied_prob 23%] — https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-lose-my-current-job-by-the-e
### 233_005 — Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within abo
  - [cos 0.68] manifold (2026-05-31): at the end of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality tv ep to a prompt? [implied_prob 35%] — https://manifold.markets/EqRy/at-the-end-of-2026-will-an-ai-be-ab
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-28): Who Am I? History-Aware Profiles for Student Simulation in Tutoring Dialogues — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30051v1
  - [cos 0.65] arxiv (2026-05-28): Surfacing Isolated Learners with Outcome-Independent Mediation of Feedback between Teachers and Students Using AI — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29240v1
### 234_014 — We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-05-16): How many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026? — https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-many-companies-with-a-5t-market
  - [cos 0.68] manifold (2026-05-26): 30T market cap company before 2027? [implied_prob 2%] — https://manifold.markets/jim/30t-market-cap-company-before-2027
  - [cos 0.67] manifold (2026-05-26): 30T market cap company before 2030? [implied_prob 26%] — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/30t-market-cap-company-before-2030
### 234_042 — AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Secur
  - [cos 0.64] manifold (2026-06-03): Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass? [implied_prob 6%] — https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/will-bernies-50-ai-tax-pass
### 235_005 — AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
  - [cos 0.71] manifold (2026-05-28): Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning? [implied_prob 31%] — https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/will-asi-be-achieved-less-than-a-ye
  - [cos 0.69] manifold (2026-05-06): Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? [implied_prob 13%] — https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-linkpost-interpreting-language
  - [cos 0.68] manifold (2026-05-27): Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026? [implied_prob 32%] — https://manifold.markets/Mochi/will-2-bots-beat-master-league-in-2
### 236_008 — First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online
  - [cos 0.75] manifold (2026-05-18): Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026? [implied_prob 40%] — https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-PAcZIOEydd
  - [cos 0.67] manifold (2026-06-01): 2nd largest company end of July 2026? — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-202
  - [cos 0.66] manifold (2026-06-01): 2nd largest company end of June 2026? — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/2nd-largest-company-end-of-june-202-u9yCIQNzgy
### 237_025 — We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040
  - [cos 0.66] manifold (2026-05-11): Will I be alive at the end of 2029? [implied_prob 91%] — https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-be-alive-at-the-end-of-2029
  - [cos 0.66] manifold (2026-05-11): Will I have another peak moment in the next 5 years? [implied_prob 36%] — https://manifold.markets/JiaheLiu/will-i-have-another-peak-moment-in
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-28): Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket] [implied_prob 7%] — https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/trump-goes-to-space-in-2028-polymar
### 238_023 — Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-06-01): Largest company end of July 2026? — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/largest-company-end-of-july-2026
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-06-01): Largest company end of August 2026? — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/largest-company-end-of-august-2026
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-11): Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? [implied_prob 11%] — https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-maybe-i-was-too-harsh-on-deep
### 238_064 — AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face
  - [cos 0.65] gdelt (2026-04-30): blame game between ai moguls — https://dailypioneer.com/news/blame-game-between-ai-moguls
### 239_003 — We are currently in AI hard takeoff
  - [cos 0.69] gdelt (2026-04-30): meta earnings layoffs ai efficiency infrastructure push 2026 4 — https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-earnings-layoffs-ai-efficiency-infrastructure-push-2026-4
  - [cos 0.67] manifold (2026-06-01): Who will have the highest sharpe ratio by June 20th 8 PM CEST [ADD ANSWERS] (2026) — https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/who-will-have-the-highest-sharpest
  - [cos 0.64] github_release (2026-05-06): facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.0 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/neuroai/releases/tag/v0.2.0
### 240_022 — All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars
  - [cos 0.68] manifold (2026-05-02): Will I get an AI lab offer? [implied_prob 29%] — https://manifold.markets/perfperfperf/will-i-get-an-ai-lab-offer
### 240_042 — Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)
  - [cos 0.65] gdelt (2026-04-30): 20260429001332 — https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20260429001332
### 242_059 — Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-06-04): Risk Assessment of Autonomous Driving: Integrating Technical Failures, Ethical Dilemmas, and Policy Frameworks — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06396v1
  - [cos 0.64] arxiv (2026-05-07): On the Emergence of Pendular Structure in Multi-Contact Locomotion — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05707v1
  - [cos 0.63] arxiv (2026-05-07): Safety Certification is Classification — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06087v1
### 246_001 — SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in 
  - [cos 0.81] manifold (2026-05-16): SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day? [implied_prob 61%] — https://manifold.markets/Jack1/spacex-market-cap-2trillion-or-more
  - [cos 0.80] manifold (2026-06-03): Will Spacex close above a $2.5 Trillion Market Cap on it's first day of trading (IPO)? [implied_prob 15%] — https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/will-spacex-close-above-a-25-trilli
  - [cos 0.80] polymarket (2026-01-23): Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? [implied_prob 99%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacex-ipo-by-june-30-2026-372-264-619
### 247_039 — Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right
  - [cos 0.61] edgar_8k (2026-05-18): Quantum Computing Inc.  (QUBT)  (CIK 0001758009) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1758009&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
  - [cos 0.61] edgar_8k (2026-05-11): Quantum Computing Inc.  (QUBT)  (CIK 0001758009) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1758009&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
  - [cos 0.60] edgar_8k (2026-06-05): QuantumScape Corp  (QS)  (CIK 0001811414) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1811414&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
### 247_045 — 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026
  - [cos 0.90] codex_research_pack (2026-01-12): 1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Own — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/12/3217155/0/en/1x-unveils-paradigm-shift-in-humanoid-ai-neo-s-starting-to-learn-on-its-own.html
  - [cos 0.90] codex_research_pack (2026-04-30): 1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026 — https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/30/3285118/0/en/1X-Opens-NEO-Factory-in-Hayward-CA-America-s-First-Vertically-Integrated-Humanoid-Robot-Factory-with-Consumer-Shipments-Planned-for-2026.html
  - [cos 0.68] manifold (2026-05-05): another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026? [implied_prob 33%] — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/another-subquadratic-twitter-announ
### 248_011 — Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threa
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-04-27): When will we see terrorism against AI? — https://manifold.markets/hidetzugu/when-will-we-see-aiterrorism
### AI_017 — NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized produc
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-27): CA-AC-MPC: CUDA-Accelerated Actor-Critic Model Predictive Control — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29155v1
  - [cos 0.64] github_release (2019-06-14): facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.2 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/habitat-sim/releases/tag/v0.1.2
  - [cos 0.64] github_release (2020-09-18): facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.6 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/habitat-sim/releases/tag/v0.1.6
### AI_033 — AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in m
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-13): Distinguishing performance gains from learning when using generative AI — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13731v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-28): Surfacing Isolated Learners with Outcome-Independent Mediation of Feedback between Teachers and Students Using AI — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29240v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-14): Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14228v1
### AUT_008 — Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + 
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-28): Network Optimization Aspects of Autonomous Vehicles: Challenges and Future Directions — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29518v1
  - [cos 0.64] manifold (2026-05-08): Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030? [implied_prob 72%] — https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-waymos-us-commercial-fleet-exc-A9t2nEcR0l
  - [cos 0.62] arxiv (2026-05-14): Scalable Solution of the Stochastic Multi-path Traveling Salesman Problem via Neural Networks — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14662v1
### AUT_016 — NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of
  - [cos 0.68] polymarket (2026-04-30): Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? [implied_prob 10%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-gemini-flagship-be-released-by-may-22-2026
### AUT_021 — Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms speci
  - [cos 0.63] github_release (2026-04-21): facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.0 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis/releases/tag/v0.6.0
  - [cos 0.63] github_release (2024-02-28): facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.4.0 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/projectaria_tools/releases/tag/1.4.0
  - [cos 0.62] arxiv (2026-06-04): When Surface Form Changes Moderation Decisions: A Paired Study of Code-Mixed Workflow Instability — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05654v1
### CMQ_001 — By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns p
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2026-04-26): OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030 — https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/02/exploring-possible-ai-trajectories-through-2030_b6fb75d9/cb41117a-en.pdf
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2025-03-19): METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks — https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
  - [cos 0.72] manifold (2026-05-15): Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026? [implied_prob 11%] — https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-openai-release-a-gpt-version-5
### CMQ_004 — AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-02): Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028? — https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/which-prediction-market-ceos-will-i
  - [cos 0.63] manifold (2026-04-29): When will the first prediction market ETF launch? — https://manifold.markets/lucaskohorst/when-will-the-first-prediction-mark
  - [cos 0.63] manifold (2026-05-05): Any new Claude Model Before May 16th? [implied_prob 4%] — https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/any-new-claude-model-before-may-16t
### CMQ_005 — AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 mo
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2026-04-26): OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030 — https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/02/exploring-possible-ai-trajectories-through-2030_b6fb75d9/cb41117a-en.pdf
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2025-03-19): METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks — https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-28): Automating Low-Risk Code Review at Meta: RADAR, Risk Calibration, and Review Efficiency — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30208v1
### CMQ_009 — Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pur
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-13): Large Language Models Lack Temporal Awareness of Medical Knowledge — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13045v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-06-03): Evaluating Large Language Models in Dynamic Clinical Decision-Making with Standardized Patient Cases — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05112v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-05): SymptomAI: Towards a Conversational AI Agent for Everyday Symptom Assessment — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04012v1
### CMQ_010 — True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class bre
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-05): Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04039v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-31): Benchmarking Local LLMs for Natural-Language-to-SQL Querying in Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing: An Empirical Benchmark on Consumer-Grade Hardware — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01338v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-28): BioRefusalAudit: Auditing Biosecurity Refusal Depth Using General and Domain-Fine-Tuned Sparse Autoencoders — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30162v1
### CMQ_013 — A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridgin
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-04-23): Which Epoch AI FrontierMath open problem will be solved next? — https://manifold.markets/GeorgElgeback/which-epoch-ai-frontiermath-open-pr
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-04-24): Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046? [implied_prob 33%] — https://manifold.markets/debris2045/titlewill-a-kessler-syndrome-cascad
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-16): GPT 5.6 release date? — https://manifold.markets/prismatic/when-will-gpt56-be-released-L8pNyNgctq
### CMQ_015 — Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-14): An Amortized Efficiency Threshold for Comparing Neural and Heuristic Solvers in Combinatorial Optimization — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14624v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-04): OCRR: A Benchmark for Online Correction Recovery under Distribution Shift — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03153v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-06-01): FOAM: Frequency and Operator Error-Based Adaptive Damping Method for Reducing Staleness-Oriented Error for Shampoo — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02365v1
### CMQ_020 — Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through t
  - [cos 0.76] manifold (2026-05-14): Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026 — https://manifold.markets/M4tsuri/global-ai-diffusion-rate-x-by-end-o-5n6Pny6R8l
  - [cos 0.69] manifold (2026-05-04): Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B? [implied_prob 83%] — https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-combined-2026-ai-capex-from-aw
  - [cos 0.69] gdelt (2026-04-30): big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4 — https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-earnings-microsoft-ai-investment-capex-plan-2026-4
### CMQ_021 — AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroecon
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-07): When AI Meets Science: Research Diversity, Interdisciplinarity, Visibility, and Retractions across Disciplines in a Global Surge — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06033v1
  - [cos 0.61] arxiv (2026-06-01): Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02231v1
### CMQ_022 — AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw comp
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2026-01-06): NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES — https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2026-ces-special-presentation/
  - [cos 0.75] codex_research_pack (2026-03-16): NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier — https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Vera-Rubin-Opens-Agentic-AI-Frontier/default.aspx
### CMQ_025 — The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced
  - [cos 0.61] github_release (2025-08-13): tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0 — https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/releases/tag/v2.20.0
  - [cos 0.61] github_release (2025-07-28): tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0-rc0 — https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/releases/tag/v2.20.0-rc0
### CMQ_026 — NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra 
  - [cos 0.66] gdelt (2026-04-30): 10729180 — https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10729180
  - [cos 0.66] github_release (2026-05-22): facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.2 — https://github.com/facebookresearch/faiss/releases/tag/v1.14.2
  - [cos 0.65] gdelt (2026-04-30):  — https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/meta-zuckerberg-145-billion-ai-spending-roi/
### CMQ_028 — NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillio
  - [cos 0.75] gdelt (2026-04-30): amazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4 — https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-chipmaker-sell-trainium-ai-chips-nvidia-2026-4
  - [cos 0.74] manifold (2026-05-04): Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? [implied_prob 14%] — https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reac
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-06-02): How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun) — https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/how-many-times-will-the-trump-admin
### CMQ_030 — In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it driv
  - [cos 0.67] github_release (2024-07-11): tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0 — https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/releases/tag/v2.17.0
  - [cos 0.66] github_release (2024-06-18): tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc0 — https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/releases/tag/v2.17.0-rc0
  - [cos 0.66] github_release (2024-07-02): tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc1 — https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/releases/tag/v2.17.0-rc1
### CMQ_032 — Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottlen
  - [cos 0.72] arxiv (2026-05-07): Human-AI Co-Evolution and Epistemic Collapse: A Dynamical Systems Perspective — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06347v1
  - [cos 0.71] arxiv (2026-05-07): Ex Ante Evaluation of AI-Induced Idea Diversity Collapse — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06540v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-05): Position: the Stochastic Parrot in the Coal Mine. Model Collapse is a Threat to Low-Resource Communities — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04127v1
### CMQ_033 — Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critica
  - [cos 0.62] gdelt (2026-04-30): microsoft q3 results top expectations driven by intelligent cloud strength 1091450.html — https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1091450/microsoft-q3-results-top-expectations-driven-by-intelligent-cloud-strength-1091450.html
### CMQ_034 — HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends 
  - [cos 0.61] polymarket (2025-12-08): Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? [implied_prob 1%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-haas-be-the-2026-f1-constructors-champion
  - [cos 0.60] manifold (2026-05-04): Will Indonesia's commissioned alumina refinery capacity exceed 15 Mt/yr on December 31, 2027? [implied_prob 28%] — https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-commissioned-alumin
### CMQ_035 — HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield 
  - [cos 0.63] arxiv (2026-05-28): Learning Design Skills as Memory Policies for Agentic Photonic Inverse Design — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29421v1
  - [cos 0.60] arxiv (2026-05-28): Mixing Vector Model for Copolymer Inference via Mixed Integer Linear Programming — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29329v1
### CMQ_036 — SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM p
  - [cos 0.63] gdelt (2026-04-30): 1964864 — https://inews24.com/view/1964864
  - [cos 0.61] polymarket (2026-04-09): Games Total: O/U 2.5 [implied_prob 100%] — https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-furia-gl1-2026-04-29-total-games-2pt5
  - [cos 0.61] polymarket (2026-04-06): Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? [implied_prob 5%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-furia-win-iem-cologne-major-2026
### CMQ_039 — TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/m
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-06-01): When will Codex hit 6M WAUs? — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/when-will-codex-hit-6m-waus
### CMQ_040 — AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global
  - [cos 0.72] gdelt (2026-04-30): samsung q1 earnings ai memory chip demand profit record.html — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/samsung-q1-earnings-ai-memory-chip-demand-profit-record.html
  - [cos 0.71] gdelt (2026-04-30): micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-technology-growth-exploding-why-135145048.html
  - [cos 0.65] arxiv (2026-06-04): Learning to replenish: A hybrid deep reinforcement learning for dynamic inventory management in the pharmaceutical supply chains — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06201v1
### CMQ_041 — Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddre
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-18): Buffer-Parameterized Machine Learning Surrogate Models for Cross-Technology Signal Integrity Analysis and Optimization — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18170v1
  - [cos 0.65] arxiv (2026-06-04): Tangram: Unlocking Non-Uniform KV Cache for Efficient Multi-turn LLM Serving — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06302v1
  - [cos 0.64] arxiv (2026-05-14): Minimal-Intervention KV Retention: A Design-Space Study and a Diversity-Penalty Survivor — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14292v1
### CMQ_042 — As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift
  - [cos 0.76] arxiv (2026-05-18): Beyond Scaling: Agents Are Heading to the Edge — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18535v1
  - [cos 0.75] arxiv (2026-06-04): Agent Memory: Characterization and System Implications of Stateful Long-Horizon Workloads — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06448v1
  - [cos 0.75] arxiv (2026-05-28): When Cloud Agents Meet Device Agents: Lessons from Hybrid Multi-Agent Systems — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30102v1
### CMQ_044 — Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-06-01): Don't Let a Few Network Failures Slow the Entire AllReduce — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01680v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-07): Efficient Serving for Dynamic Agent Workflows with Prediction-based KV-Cache Management — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06472v1
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-05): Coral: Cost-Efficient Multi-LLM Serving over Heterogeneous Cloud GPUs — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04357v1
### CMQ_045 — Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potent
  - [cos 0.69] manifold (2026-05-04): Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B? [implied_prob 83%] — https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-combined-2026-ai-capex-from-aw
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-06-03): Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.04883v1
  - [cos 0.61] manifold (2026-04-23): Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026? [implied_prob 63%] — https://manifold.markets/Edvard/will-intel-stock-trade-above-90-in
### CMQ_046 — Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-4
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-06): Storage Is Not Memory: A Retrieval-Centered Architecture for Agent Recall — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04897v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-06-04): Beyond Similarity: Trustworthy Memory Search for Personal AI Agents — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06054v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-12): MEME: Multi-entity & Evolving Memory Evaluation — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12477v1
### CMQ_055 — Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default 
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-28): Decentralized LLM-Driven Coordination of Acoustic Robots for Contactless Object Manipulation — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29378v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-07): PersonaKit (PK): A Plug-and-Play Platform for User Testing Diverse Roles in Full-Duplex Dialogue — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06007v1
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-06-04): A Conversational Framework for Human-Robot Collaborative Manipulation with Distributed Generative AI models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06061v1
### CMQ_056 — Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will 
  - [cos 0.78] arxiv (2026-05-28): When Cloud Agents Meet Device Agents: Lessons from Hybrid Multi-Agent Systems — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30102v1
  - [cos 0.77] arxiv (2026-05-04): Benchmarking Local Language Models for Social Robots using Edge Devices — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03111v1
  - [cos 0.75] arxiv (2026-05-07): Data Language Models: A New Foundation Model Class for Tabular Data — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06290v1
### CYB_012 — 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training s
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-07): Architecture Matters: Comparing RAG Systems under Knowledge Base Poisoning — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05632v1
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-06-01): SkillHarm: Lifecycle-Aware Skill-Based Attacks via Automated Construction — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02540v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-28): Hijacking Agent Memory: Stealthy Trojan Attacks Through Conversational Interaction — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29960v1
### CYB_019 — Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipat
  - [cos 0.74] arxiv (2026-05-12): Do Enterprise Systems Need Learned World Models? The Importance of Context to Infer Dynamics — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12178v1
  - [cos 0.71] arxiv (2026-05-07): Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06522v1
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-06-04): Towards World Models in Biomedical Research — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05925v1
### CYB_022 — Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exempli
  - [cos 0.72] arxiv (2026-05-05): Tailored Prompts, Targeted Protection: Vulnerability-Specific LLM Analysis for Smart Contracts — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03697v1
  - [cos 0.72] arxiv (2026-05-28): How Reliable Are AI Attackers Against a Fixed Vulnerable Target? A 400-Run Empirical Study of LLM Penetration Testing Consistency — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30096v1
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-05): Cryptographic Registry Provenance: Structural Defense Against Dependency Confusion in AI Package Ecosystems — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03309v1
### FUT_004 — Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-05): Coordination as an Architectural Layer for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03310v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-06-04): Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06235v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-28): Decentralized LLM-Driven Coordination of Acoustic Robots for Contactless Object Manipulation — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29378v1
### FUT_012 — Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building ne
  - [cos 0.65] gdelt (2026-04-30): roth tipping point why 86 135102407.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/roth-tipping-point-why-86-135102407.html
  - [cos 0.63] manifold (2026-05-06): US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - lowest value in 2026 — https://manifold.markets/AIBear/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-lowe
  - [cos 0.60] polymarket (2026-04-24): Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? [implied_prob 86%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-norway-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup
### FUT_014 — 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — i
  - [cos 0.62] polymarket (2025-11-03): Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? [implied_prob 13%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026
  - [cos 0.61] polymarket (2025-07-11): 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House [implied_prob 47%] — https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949
  - [cos 0.61] polymarket (2025-07-11): 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House [implied_prob 17%] — https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-r-house-537
### IND_012 — NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biol
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-07): BioResearcher: Scenario-Guided Multi-Agent for Translational Medicine — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05985v1
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-06-03): GENEB: Why Genomic Models Are Hard to Compare — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.04525v1
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-07): BioMedArena: An Open-source Toolkit for Building and Evaluating Biomedical Deep Research Agents — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06177v1
### INF_011 — Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in th
  - [cos 0.66] manifold (2026-05-11): Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027? [implied_prob 47%] — https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-any-tokenized-basket-or-index
  - [cos 0.66] gdelt (2026-04-30): big tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4 — https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-earnings-microsoft-ai-investment-capex-plan-2026-4
  - [cos 0.64] polymarket (2025-06-26): MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? [implied_prob 0%] — https://polymarket.com/event/megaeth-market-cap-fdv-6b-one-day-after-launch-365-559-334-815-776-488-224-766
### INF_012 — AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually thro
  - [cos 0.73] manifold (2026-05-28): Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028? [implied_prob 65%] — https://manifold.markets/LucasKlein/will-data-centers-consume-more-than
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-04): Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh? [implied_prob 29%] — https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-miso-indiana-hub-2028-dayahead
  - [cos 0.65] manifold (2026-05-04): Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh? [implied_prob 33%] — https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-miso-indiana-hub-2027-dayahead
### INF_030 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabilities 
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-28): The Little Book of Generative AI Foundations: An Intuitive Mathematical Primer — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29713v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-28): The New Pro Se: Generative AI and the Surge in Federal Civil Self-Representation — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.29493v1
  - [cos 0.64] arxiv (2026-05-18): GenTS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Library for Generative Time Series Models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17804v1
### INF_031 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting with
  - [cos 0.70] gdelt (2026-04-30): on the risks of ai in the workplace.htm — https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2604/S00081/on-the-risks-of-ai-in-the-workplace.htm
### INF_034 — Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments des
  - [cos 0.61] edgar_8k (2026-05-15): EQUINIX INC  (EQIX)  (CIK 0001101239) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1101239&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
  - [cos 0.61] edgar_8k (2026-05-11): EQUINIX INC  (EQIX)  (CIK 0001101239) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1101239&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
### INF_037 — An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superi
  - [cos 0.64] manifold (2026-04-29): China vs Japan Conflict before 2027? — https://manifold.markets/PrijwalNaidu/china-vs-japan-conflict-before-2027
### INF_043 — Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving
  - [cos 0.68] arxiv (2026-05-17): Bug or Feature$^2$: Weight Drift, Activation Sparsity, and Spikes — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17659v1
  - [cos 0.67] arxiv (2026-05-12): Scaling Laws and Tradeoffs in Recurrent Networks of Expressive Neurons — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12049v1
  - [cos 0.67] gdelt (2026-04-30): micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-technology-growth-exploding-why-135145048.html
### ROB_007 — The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point trans
  - [cos 0.63] arxiv (2026-05-05): FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03460v1
  - [cos 0.62] arxiv (2026-05-06): Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Financial Document Question Answering — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05409v1
### ROB_018 — The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corporati
  - [cos 0.64] polymarket (2025-10-10): Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? [implied_prob 0%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-amazon-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-june-30-123
  - [cos 0.63] polymarket (2026-04-16): Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? [implied_prob 0%] — https://polymarket.com/event/will-amazon-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-may-31-498
### SEM_002 — By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of colleg
  - [cos 0.72] manifold (2026-05-28): June 2026 AI model releases — https://manifold.markets/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases
  - [cos 0.71] manifold (2026-04-30): May 2026 AI model releases — https://manifold.markets/prismatic/may-2026-ai-model-releases
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-05-04): Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? [implied_prob 14%] — https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reac
### SEM_004 — Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power inf
  - [cos 0.62] gdelt (2026-04-30):  — https://globalvoices.org/2026/04/29/the-human-cost-of-the-data-center-push-in-latin-america/
### SEM_013 — Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign s
  - [cos 0.62] manifold (2026-06-02): Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027? [implied_prob 66%] — https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-a-semiconductor-fabrication-pl-h6tIS6u0IU
### SEM_020 — Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's en
  - [cos 0.70] manifold (2026-06-02): How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun) — https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/how-many-times-will-the-trump-admin
  - [cos 0.64] manifold (2026-04-27): How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have? — https://manifold.markets/Tenoke/how-much-vram-will-nvidia-6090-or-c
  - [cos 0.63] gdelt (2026-04-30): N82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm sp=Homepage SS   P2 24 281 393   04292026 — https://www.newegg.com/asus-pg32ucdm3-31-5-qd-oled-240-hz-rog-swift-qd-oled-black/p/N82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm_sp=Homepage_SS-_-P2_24-281-393-_-04292026
### SEM_022 — FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor de
  - [cos 0.76] arxiv (2026-05-07): Litespark Inference on Consumer CPUs: Custom SIMD Kernels for Ternary Neural Networks — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06485v1
  - [cos 0.71] arxiv (2026-06-04): ITP-STDP: An Intrinsic-Timing Power-of-Two Learning Engine for On-Chip SNN Training — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06159v1
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-14): A Hardware-Aware, Per-Layer Methodology for Post-Training Quantization of Large Language Models — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14929v1
### SEM_023 — No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with
  - [cos 0.75] manifold (2026-04-24): Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026? [implied_prob 89%] — https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-semiconductors-outperform-the
  - [cos 0.73] gdelt (2026-04-30): 244576 — https://www.dailyforex.com/stock-market-today/2026/04/3-chip-stocks-to-watch/244576
  - [cos 0.73] manifold (2026-05-14): Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026 — https://manifold.markets/M4tsuri/global-ai-diffusion-rate-x-by-end-o-5n6Pny6R8l
### SEM_024 — Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle exte
  - [cos 0.70] gdelt (2026-04-30): 244576 — https://www.dailyforex.com/stock-market-today/2026/04/3-chip-stocks-to-watch/244576
### SEM_025 — Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from curre
  - [cos 0.73] gdelt (2026-04-30): why keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-keep-buying-nvidia-stock-160006739.html
  - [cos 0.72] manifold (2026-05-11): Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings? [implied_prob 45%] — https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-nvidia-close-above-225-on-may
  - [cos 0.71] edgar_8k (2026-05-08): NVIDIA CORP  (NVDA)  (CIK 0001045810) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1045810&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
### SEM_028 — Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-gr
  - [cos 0.67] edgar_8k (2026-05-05): Astera Labs, Inc.  (ALAB)  (CIK 0001736297) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1736297&type=8-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=10
  - [cos 0.66] gdelt (2026-04-30): boersengang voraus angriff auf nvidia aktie ki spezialist cerebras wagt neuen ipo anlauf an der nasdaq 00 15640811 — https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/boersengang-voraus-angriff-auf-nvidia-aktie-ki-spezialist-cerebras-wagt-neuen-ipo-anlauf-an-der-nasdaq-00-15640811
  - [cos 0.65] gdelt (2026-04-30): 10729180 — https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10729180
### SEM_031 — AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently dri
  - [cos 0.70] gdelt (2026-04-30): micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-technology-growth-exploding-why-135145048.html
  - [cos 0.69] gdelt (2026-04-30): meta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.html — https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1091449/meta-beats-estimates-but-soaring-ai-spending-rattles-investors-1091449.html
  - [cos 0.66] gdelt (2026-04-30): ai fears surging crude oil 151510490.html — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ai-fears-surging-crude-oil-151510490.html
### SEM_033 — AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (
  - [cos 0.71] arxiv (2026-05-05): Toward a Community Roadmap for High Energy Physics and Artificial Intelligence in China and Beyond — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03474v1
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-28): Physics Is All You Need? A Case Study in Physicist-Supervised AI Development of Scientific Software — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30353v1
  - [cos 0.66] arxiv (2026-05-07): AI CFD Scientist: Toward Open-Ended Computational Fluid Dynamics Discovery with Physics-Aware AI Agents — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06607v1
### SEM_036 — World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).
  - [cos 0.90] codex_research_pack (2025-03-19): METR - Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks — https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
  - [cos 0.90] codex_research_pack (2026-04-26): OECD - Exploring Possible AI Trajectories Through 2030 — https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2026/02/exploring-possible-ai-trajectories-through-2030_b6fb75d9/cb41117a-en.pdf
  - [cos 0.63] manifold (2026-05-10): When will the Jai programming language be public? — https://manifold.markets/MollTheCoder/when-will-the-jai-programming-langu
### SEM_037 — For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able t
  - [cos 0.67] manifold (2026-05-11): Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026? [implied_prob 23%] — https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-lose-my-current-job-by-the-e
  - [cos 0.63] manifold (2026-05-18): Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026? — https://manifold.markets/ColePrazanowski/will-an-aigenerated-movie-hit-netfl
  - [cos 0.61] manifold (2026-05-13): If the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later? [implied_prob 73%] — https://manifold.markets/duck_master/if-the-googlebook-is-launched-will
### SEM_043 — SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regul
  - [cos 0.90] codex_research_pack (2026-03-16): NVIDIA - Launches Space Computing, Rocketing AI Into Orbit — https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Launches-Space-Computing-Rocketing-AI-Into-Orbit/default.aspx
  - [cos 0.63] gdelt (2026-04-30): 68878 eutelsat resiste aux manoeuvres de spacex sur le marche americain.html — https://www.telesatellite.com/actu/68878-eutelsat-resiste-aux-manoeuvres-de-spacex-sur-le-marche-americain.html
  - [cos 0.63] gdelt (2026-04-30):  — https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/04/29/live-coverage-spacex-to-launch-24-starlink-satellites-on-falcon-9-rocket-from-vandenberg-sfb-6/
### SEM_045 — Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating mo
  - [cos 0.61] manifold (2026-05-27): Will Kalshi be operational and legal in the US on January 1, 2030? [implied_prob 74%] — https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/will-kalshi-be-operational-and-lega
### SEM_047 — At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' —
  - [cos 0.70] arxiv (2026-05-18): Guard: Scalable Straggler Detection and Node Health Management for Large-Scale Training — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17879v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-06-01): Don't Let a Few Network Failures Slow the Entire AllReduce — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.01680v1
  - [cos 0.69] arxiv (2026-05-14): An Amortized Efficiency Threshold for Comparing Neural and Heuristic Solvers in Combinatorial Optimization — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14624v1
### SEM_049 — AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reducti
  - [cos 0.73] arxiv (2026-06-04): The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundamentally Restructuring the Software Paradigm — http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05608v1
  - [cos 0.73] manifold (2026-05-25): Is ai going to be self repairing? [implied_prob 10%] — https://manifold.markets/FilipWhite/is-ai-going-to-be-self-repairing
  - [cos 0.72] arxiv (2026-05-04): AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development — http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02741v1

## Auto-suggested prediction-market cross-checks (Polymarket / Manifold)
- 231_041 prior=54% vs manifold (Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?) 23% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-lose-my-current-job-by-the-e
- 233_005 prior=51% vs manifold (at the end of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality tv ep to a prompt?) 35% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/EqRy/at-the-end-of-2026-will-an-ai-be-ab
- 234_014 prior=59% vs manifold (30T market cap company before 2027?) 2% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/jim/30t-market-cap-company-before-2027
- 235_005 prior=49% vs manifold (Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?) 31% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/will-asi-be-achieved-less-than-a-ye
- 236_008 prior=53% vs manifold (Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?) 40% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-PAcZIOEydd
- 237_025 prior=59% vs manifold (Will I be alive at the end of 2029?) 91% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-be-alive-at-the-end-of-2029
- 238_023 prior=49% vs manifold (Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?) 11% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-maybe-i-was-too-harsh-on-deep
- 240_022 prior=45% vs manifold (Will I get an AI lab offer?) 29% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/perfperfperf/will-i-get-an-ai-lab-offer
- 246_001 prior=79% vs manifold (SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day?) 61% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/Jack1/spacex-market-cap-2trillion-or-more
- 247_045 prior=32% vs manifold (another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026?) 33%
  https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/another-subquadratic-twitter-announ
- AUT_016 prior=81% vs polymarket (Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?) 10% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-new-gemini-flagship-be-released-by-may-22-2026
- CMQ_001 prior=45% vs manifold (Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?) 11% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-openai-release-a-gpt-version-5
- CMQ_013 prior=40% vs manifold (Title:Will a Kessler Syndrome cascade begin in Low Earth Orbit before 2046?) 33%
  https://manifold.markets/debris2045/titlewill-a-kessler-syndrome-cascad
- CMQ_020 prior=67% vs manifold (Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?) 83% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-combined-2026-ai-capex-from-aw
- CMQ_028 prior=72% vs manifold (Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?) 14% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reac
- CMQ_045 prior=43% vs manifold (Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?) 83% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-combined-2026-ai-capex-from-aw
- INF_011 prior=92% vs manifold (Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?) 47% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-any-tokenized-basket-or-index
- INF_012 prior=46% vs manifold (Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?) 65% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/LucasKlein/will-data-centers-consume-more-than
- SEM_002 prior=56% vs manifold (Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?) 14% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reac
- SEM_023 prior=63% vs manifold (Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?) 89% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-semiconductors-outperform-the
- SEM_025 prior=55% vs manifold (Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?) 45%
  https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-nvidia-close-above-225-on-may
- SEM_037 prior=47% vs manifold (Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026?) 23% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-i-lose-my-current-job-by-the-e
- SEM_049 prior=56% vs manifold (Is ai going to be self repairing?) 10% ⚠️ DIVERGENCE >10pp
  https://manifold.markets/FilipWhite/is-ai-going-to-be-self-repairing

## 15 thesis killers
- TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) (prior 15%)
- TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) (prior 12%)
- TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) (prior 10%)
- TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) (prior 25%)
- TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) (prior 30%)
- TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict (prior 8%)
- TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) (prior 18%)
- TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) (prior 22%)
- TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) (prior 35%)
- TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis (prior 12%)
- TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) (prior 10%)
- TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) (prior 8%)
- TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event (prior 15%)
- TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) (prior 20%)
- TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure (prior 12%)

(Treat as candidate root causes when interpreting headlines.)

---

## Output schema

Return **one JSON object only**, no prose outside it. Match exactly:

```json
{
  "report_date": "2026-06-07",
  "report_generated_at": "<ISO8601 UTC>",
  "summary": "<3–5 sentence narrative of today's most material developments>",
  "event_updates": [
    {
      "pred_id": "<from watchlist if matched, else null>",
      "title_if_no_id": "<required if pred_id is null>",
      "status_change": "in_progress|hit|miss|partial|accelerated|delayed|killed|stale|unchanged",
      "polarity": "corroborates|contradicts|mentions|neutral",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": -0.15,
      "evidence_strength": "strong|moderate|weak|speculative",
      "evidence": [
        {"url":"https://...","title":"...","source":"Reuters","published":"YYYY-MM-DD","excerpt":"<≤300 chars>"}
      ],
      "rationale": "<why this evidence updates the probability>"
    }
  ],
  "new_events": [],
  "indicator_updates": [
    {"indicator_id":"FRED.DFII10","value":1.83,"observed_at":"YYYY-MM-DD","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/..."}
  ],
  "regime_signals": [],
  "ticker_attribution": [],
  "anomaly_flags": [],
  "consensus_drift": [],
  "prediction_market_cross_check": []
}
```

## Field semantics

- `delta_prob_suggestion` is **signed** in [-1.0, +1.0]. System weights it by source credibility and `evidence_strength`. Use small values (±0.05–0.15) for typical news; reserve ±0.25+ for resolution-grade evidence with multiple independent sources.
- `status_change: "stale"` means the prediction's window has passed without resolution.
- `status_change: "killed"` means a thesis-killer (TK01–TK15) has fired enough to invalidate the prediction class.
- `polarity` and `delta_prob_suggestion` should be consistent in sign.
- `evidence_strength: "strong"` requires ≥2 independent reputable sources.

## Rules

1. Every claim has a verifiable URL. No fabricated dates, quotes, or sources.
2. Use ISO date strings everywhere.
3. If you cannot find news for a watchlist item today, **omit it** from `event_updates` rather than inventing.
4. Cross-reference ≥2 independent sources for any `delta_prob_suggestion` with magnitude > 0.25; otherwise mark `evidence_strength: "weak"`.
5. Stay calibrated: resist manufacturing activity for quiet days.
6. For `new_events`, only add things that are *materially thesis-relevant*.

---

## Now generate today's report.

Return only the JSON object. No commentary before or after.
2 · Paste JSON response

Recent sessions

Audit trail of past intakes
Applied at	LLM	Status	Changes	Reverted
2026-05-21 23:15	—	ok	bayesian_v2=true · event_updates=46 · blends_applied=16 · indicator_updates=3 · new_events_skipped=4 · skipped_updates_count=0 · anomaly_flags_captured=4 · blends_skipped_no_class=30 · regime_signals_captured=4 · ticker_attribution_captured=11	no
2026-05-03 02:40	—	ok	bayesian_v2=true · event_updates=9 · blends_applied=4 · indicator_updates=4 · new_events_skipped=2 · skipped_updates_count=0 · anomaly_flags_captured=1 · blends_skipped_no_class=5 · regime_signals_captured=4 · ticker_attribution_captured=0	no
2026-04-30 19:17	codex_research_pack	ok	bayesian_v2=true · event_updates=33 · blends_applied=12 · indicator_updates=0 · new_events_skipped=0 · skipped_updates_count=0 · anomaly_flags_captured=1 · blends_skipped_no_class=21 · regime_signals_captured=0 · ticker_attribution_captured=0	no
2026-04-30 01:37	—	ok	bayesian_v1=true · event_updates=1 · indicator_updates=0 · new_events_skipped=0 · skipped_updates_count=0 · anomaly_flags_captured=0 · regime_signals_captured=0 · ticker_attribution_captured=0	no
2026-04-29 22:47	phase3-smoketest	ok	event_updates=1 · indicator_updates=0 · new_events_skipped=0 · skipped_updates_count=0 · anomaly_flags_captured=0 · regime_signals_captured=0 · ticker_attribution_captured=0	no