Scenario paths (Phase 5)

37 named scenario nodes across 10 capability dimensions. Each prediction linked to a primary scenario inherits its target_window_end; LBP propagates probability shifts. Mutually- exclusive dimensions are renormalized for display; toggle show raw.

Scenarios
37
Linked predictions
241
Dimensions
10
10 expected
Last LBP
2026-06-07
6h ago

AGI / General Capability

mutually exclusive · 4 scenarios · 80 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_AGI_FAST_20272027-09-3030.0%
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
no probability history yet
26 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 238_041Apple will eventually integrate highly competent p71%
  • 234_02380% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to 50%
  • 238_035AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents 48%
S_AGI_MID_20292029-03-3135.0%
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
no probability history yet
53 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 236_033Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of mill55%
  • 238_064AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-sharehol51%
  • 236_030AI will create trillions of dollars of value and t50%
S_AGI_SLOW_20312031-11-3025.0%
AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 238_007There will be no more than ~10 foundation model la44%
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS2036-12-31beyond horizon10.0%
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

ASI / Recursive Self-Improvement

mutually exclusive · 3 scenarios · 29 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_ASI_FAST_20312031-12-3110.0%
ASI fast: RSI within 5y of AGI
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 229_046Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed 28%
S_ASI_MID_20342034-06-30beyond horizon30.0%
ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'
no probability history yet
4 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 236_002UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step42%
  • 238_036Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's 35%
  • 234_043Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their35%
S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS2040-12-31beyond horizon60.0%
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
no probability history yet
24 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 240_054ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices57%
  • 242_058Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomo51%
  • 244_004Race car driving will persist as a sport50%

Humanoid Deployment

cumulative milestones · 4 scenarios · 35 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.20 · sum_current=1.20
S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_20262026-11-3040.0%
Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026
no probability history yet
2 linked predictions
top 2 by probability
  • 239_014Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory33%
  • 238_044Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at32%
S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_20282028-11-3050.0%
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
no probability history yet
19 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 245_012UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for bot67%
  • 229_040When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwashe43%
  • 239_024Everyone on Earth will have better medical care th43%
S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_20302030-11-3020.0%
Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030
no probability history yet
14 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 229_028Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hard69%
  • 246_055We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only a45%
  • 244_010Machines will be more predictable than human drive41%
S_HUMANOID_MASS_20332033-12-31beyond horizon10.0%
Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Robotaxi / Self-Driving

— · 4 scenarios · 44 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.35 · sum_current=1.35
S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_20262026-11-3040.0%
Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
no probability history yet
4 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 243_024Electric autonomous cars could be four times cheap47%
  • 242_026Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperlo46%
  • 234_040Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbaniz38%
S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_20282028-11-3045.0%
Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028
no probability history yet
6 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 243_004Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-o44%
  • 243_026Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV par44%
  • 236_042Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk 44%
S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_20302030-11-3030.0%
Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030
no probability history yet
34 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 238_018Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from 48%
  • 243_022Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip w48%
  • 243_010Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesl48%
S_ROBOTAXI_DELAYED2032-12-31beyond horizon20.0%
Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Compute Scale (Stargate)

— · 4 scenarios · 1 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.35 · sum_current=1.35
S_COMPUTE_1GW_20272027-06-3060.0%
Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions
S_COMPUTE_10GW_20282028-12-3140.0%
Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 246_036Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 546%
S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE2029-12-3115.0%
Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions
S_COMPUTE_100GW_20302030-12-3120.0%
Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Energy / Grid Expansion

— · 3 scenarios · 8 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_GRID_50GW_20272027-12-3140.0%
50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 240_017Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world 35%
S_GRID_50GW_20292029-12-3150.0%
50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029
no probability history yet
6 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 247_049Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficien45%
  • 238_046xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawa44%
  • 238_067US power problem is transmission/storage, not prod41%
S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED2032-12-31beyond horizon10.0%
50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 238_048US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race t45%

AI Regulatory Pause

mutually exclusive · 4 scenarios · 0 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_AI_PAUSE_20262026-12-315.0%
Major-country AI pause beginning 2026
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions
S_AI_PAUSE_20272027-12-3110.0%
AI pause beginning 2027
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions
S_AI_PAUSE_20282028-12-3110.0%
AI pause beginning 2028
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions
S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y2031-12-3175.0%
No major AI pause through 2031
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

$1T+ IPO Timeline

mutually exclusive · 4 scenarios · 17 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_IPO_TRILLION_20262026-11-3025.0%
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
no probability history yet
3 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 242_003Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion co49%
  • 242_004Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of ma41%
  • 238_028Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market dis31%
S_IPO_TRILLION_20272027-09-3040.0%
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
no probability history yet
1 linked predictions
top 1 by probability
  • 236_008First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-tri53%
S_IPO_TRILLION_20282028-09-3025.0%
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
no probability history yet
13 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 240_022All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of 45%
  • 244_006Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass 43%
  • 240_002Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue42%
S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y2031-12-3110.0%
No $1T+ IPO through 2031
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Macro Recession

mutually exclusive · 4 scenarios · 16 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_RECESSION_20262026-12-3120.0%
NBER recession declared 2026
no probability history yet
5 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 238_054Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw mate45%
  • 246_045Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost ap45%
  • 239_0301000x current economy would saturate human desires37%
S_RECESSION_20272027-12-3130.0%
NBER recession declared 2027
no probability history yet
5 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 238_055Marginal cost of production will approach zero for50%
  • 238_053Innovation is no longer capital constrained — perm42%
  • 239_023AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budge41%
S_RECESSION_20282028-12-3130.0%
NBER recession declared 2028
no probability history yet
6 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 244_028Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction 40%
  • 240_040Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all huma38%
  • 247_017Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity cap35%
S_NO_RECESSION_5Y2031-12-3120.0%
No NBER recession through 2031
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Mars Uncrewed Landing

mutually exclusive · 3 scenarios · 11 linked predictions · sum_priors=1.00 · sum_current=1.00
S_MARS_20262026-11-3025.0%
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
no probability history yet
4 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 246_038Data centers are driving frontier labs into space 60%
  • 242_040Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial48%
  • 242_002Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lun46%
S_MARS_20282028-12-3150.0%
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
no probability history yet
7 linked predictions
top 3 by probability
  • 229_036Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and 47%
  • 242_039NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidenc46%
  • 234_045Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actua37%
S_MARS_2031PLUS2031-01-3125.0%
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
no probability history yet
0 linked predictions

Methodology

Scenario node:  kind='scenario', target_window_end = archetypal resolution date,
                 current_prob evolves via Phase 4 stack (Bayesian + blend + LBP)

Prediction → Scenario assignment:  edge kind='prereq', src=scenario, dst=prediction
                                    (scenario enables prediction's resolution at its date)

Mutually-exclusive dimensions  (sum of priors must = 1.0):
  agi_general_capability, asi_recursive_self_improvement,
  mars_uncrewed_landing, macro_recession, ipo_trillion_plus,
  ai_regulatory_pause

Cumulative dimensions  (priors are independent milestones, may sum > 1.0):
  humanoid_deployment, robotaxi_deployment, compute_scale,
  energy_grid_expansion

Default view renormalizes exclusive dimensions to display Σ=1.0 across
their scenarios. Use ?normalize=raw to see the underlying current_prob values.

When ANY scenario's probability shifts (via intake, milestone miss, LBP, or
manual update), all predictions linked via prereq edge inherit a downstream
probability change in the next LBP run.