Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.
Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-28pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-02-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAstroForge Vestri asteroid mission fliesHow: AstroForge Vestri spacecraft launches and rendezvous with target asteroid for prospectingSource: https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids — AstroForge Vestri 2026 missionconf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingNASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture fundedHow: NASA receives appropriations specifically for ISRU-based lunar mining demonstration as part of Artemis programSource: https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/ — NASA Artemis ISRU and 2030 mining base goalconf 55%
- 2027-06-30pendingFirst commercial lunar mining sample-return missionHow: Interlune (or peer) launches first commercial lunar mission targeting helium-3 / regolith sample returnSource: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144 — Interlune 2027 mission to confirm helium-3 concentrationsconf 55%Notes: Most modest first-step toward Blundin's hyperbolic 'disassemble the moon' claim.
- 2027-07-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-11-30pendingInternational framework on celestial-body resource extraction signedHow: New international treaty or accord binding on >=20 nations regulates commercial extraction of lunar/asteroid resources (beyond non-binding Artemis Accords)Source: https://www.space.com/astronomy/moon/the-race-to-mine-the-moon-is-on-and-it-urgently-needs-some-clear-international-rules — international rules urgencyconf 25%
- 2028-01-01 → 2028-11-30pendingFirst commercial extraction of asteroid material returned to Earth at scaleHow: Private company successfully returns >=1 kg of asteroid-sourced material to Earth or near-Earth orbit for commercial useSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining — current state and trajectoryconf 10%Notes: Cascade — Blundin's 'disassemble' is a multi-century claim; near-term milestone is single-digit-kg return. Low confidence even at minimal scale by 2028-11.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attem | 50.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.149 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.071 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.067 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.060 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.043 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_MARS_2028 | Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PROPHECY",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "semi-humorous",
"context": "And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%.",
"verbatim": "And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.",
"conv_cues": "100%; will",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-09-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-02-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AstroForge Vestri asteroid mission flies",
"source": "https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids — AstroForge Vestri 2026 mission",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "AstroForge Vestri spacecraft launches and rendezvous with target asteroid for prospecting"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "NASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture funded",
"source": "https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/ — NASA Artemis ISRU and 2030 mining base goal",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NASA receives appropriations specifically for ISRU-based lunar mining demonstration as part of Artemis program"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First commercial lunar mining sample-return mission",
"notes": "Most modest first-step toward Blundin's hyperbolic 'disassemble the moon' claim.",
"source": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144 — Interlune 2027 mission to confirm helium-3 concentrations",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144",
"expected_date": "2027-06-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Interlune (or peer) launches first commercial lunar mission targeting helium-3 / regolith sample return"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-07-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_036",
"expected_date": "2027-12-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Internat
... (truncated)