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229_036predictionSpaceAI-scaling

Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
6 / 0
Tickers exposed
40

Prediction text

Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 pending
  1. 2026-09-28pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2027-02-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAstroForge Vestri asteroid mission flies
    How: AstroForge Vestri spacecraft launches and rendezvous with target asteroid for prospecting
    Source: https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids — AstroForge Vestri 2026 missionconf 60%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingNASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture funded
    How: NASA receives appropriations specifically for ISRU-based lunar mining demonstration as part of Artemis program
    Source: https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/ — NASA Artemis ISRU and 2030 mining base goalconf 55%
  5. 2027-06-30pendingFirst commercial lunar mining sample-return mission
    How: Interlune (or peer) launches first commercial lunar mission targeting helium-3 / regolith sample return
    Source: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144 — Interlune 2027 mission to confirm helium-3 concentrationsconf 55%
    Notes: Most modest first-step toward Blundin's hyperbolic 'disassemble the moon' claim.
  6. 2027-07-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2028-11-30pendingInternational framework on celestial-body resource extraction signed
    How: New international treaty or accord binding on >=20 nations regulates commercial extraction of lunar/asteroid resources (beyond non-binding Artemis Accords)
    Source: https://www.space.com/astronomy/moon/the-race-to-mine-the-moon-is-on-and-it-urgently-needs-some-clear-international-rules — international rules urgencyconf 25%
  8. 2028-01-01 → 2028-11-30pendingFirst commercial extraction of asteroid material returned to Earth at scale
    How: Private company successfully returns >=1 kg of asteroid-sourced material to Earth or near-Earth orbit for commercial use
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining — current state and trajectoryconf 10%
    Notes: Cascade — Blundin's 'disassemble' is a multi-century claim; near-term milestone is single-digit-kg return. Low confidence even at minimal scale by 2028-11.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z47.4%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 48.9% → 47.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.8% → 48.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.8%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 54.6% → 51.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z54.6%-5.4pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 54.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_MARS_2028
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attem
50.0%0.6000.050-0.149
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.071
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.067
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.060
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.043

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

40 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

APLDASMIYPLABEQIXASMLWULFNVDAALABMUIRENCRWVNBISSFTBYAMZNMETAMSFTSTXLNVGYDELLORCLAMTGOOGLAAPLIRM

Adverse (6)

IBMACNCHGGGENLRNWNS

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "semi-humorous",
  "context": "And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%.",
  "verbatim": "And then we'll disassemble the moon and the asteroid belt and we'll use it for materials. [laughter] 100%. Oh, Alex, I love you said that. Let's do it.",
  "conv_cues": "100%; will",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AstroForge Vestri asteroid mission flies",
      "source": "https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids — AstroForge Vestri 2026 mission",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://patentpc.com/blog/space-mining-market-potential-how-close-are-we-to-extracting-resources-from-asteroids",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AstroForge Vestri spacecraft launches and rendezvous with target asteroid for prospecting"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA Artemis lunar mining base architecture funded",
      "source": "https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/ — NASA Artemis ISRU and 2030 mining base goal",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://nasaspacenews.com/2026/01/race-to-mine-the-moon/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA receives appropriations specifically for ISRU-based lunar mining demonstration as part of Artemis program"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First commercial lunar mining sample-return mission",
      "notes": "Most modest first-step toward Blundin's hyperbolic 'disassemble the moon' claim.",
      "source": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144 — Interlune 2027 mission to confirm helium-3 concentrations",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48144",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Interlune (or peer) launches first commercial lunar mission targeting helium-3 / regolith sample return"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-07-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "229_036",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Internat
... (truncated)