S_MARS_2028scenariomars_uncrewed_landing
Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)
Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
50.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 33
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Nov-Dec 2028 transfer window. Most likely first SpaceX uncrewed Starship Mars attempt. Conventional industry expectation.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: mars_uncrewed_landing_window
Linked
Successful uncrewed payload delivery to Mars surface within named transfer window
Base rate
50.0%
9/18 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of micro — Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | 45.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.155 |
| prereq | 229_036 Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid b — Dave Blundin | 47.4% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.149 |
| prereq | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with Spac — Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.7% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| prereq | 242_041 United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or si — Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.5% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.115 |
| prereq | 246_019 Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt — Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.5% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.115 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (33)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_036 | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_039 | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Space | — |
| prereq | 234_045 | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_009 | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_019 | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_041 | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_054 | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_008 | SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_031 | SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reduction in <20 years, transforming space access economics and enabling the simultaneous hyper-deflation of launch cos... | Space | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_007 | NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist | Space | — |
| correlate | ROB_023 | SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. | Space | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_005 | NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window | Space | — |
| correlate | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| correlate | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| correlate | 231_037 | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. | Space | — |
| correlate | 246_014 | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Space | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_001 | Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing | Space | — |
| correlate | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| correlate | 232_046 | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. | Space | — |
| correlate | 246_015 | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_013 | As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... | Space | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_002 | The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 | Space | — |
| correlate | 242_038 | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Space | — |
| correlate | 234_049 | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_012 | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. | Space | — |
| correlate | SEM_044 | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Space | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_003 | SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_009 | Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_026 | Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... | Space | — |
| correlate | INF_018 | SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. | Space | — |
| correlate | IND_016 | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_010 | Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people by the year 2050 — despite logistical delays and the lunar detour, Musk maintains this ultimate target. | Space | — |
| correlate | ROB_011 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. | Space | — |
Linked documents (6)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.629 | manifold | Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.619 | manifold | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle? | 70% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.589 | polymarket | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | 27% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.583 | polymarket | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.581 | polymarket | Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | 3% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.567 | manifold | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist? | 60% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "mars",
"dimension": "mars_uncrewed_landing",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "Mars uncrewed",
"family_order": 2,
"transfer_window_year": 2028,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}