COD_SPC_002predictionSpaceArtemis-lunar-landing

The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

45.0%

Current probability

22.2%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31

Edges in / out

4 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 22.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 overdue ⏱ · 8 pending

2026-04-30overdueArtemis II crewed lunar flyby completes
How: NASA confirms successful Artemis II free-return lunar flyby; Orion crew returns and splashdown verified per NASA press conference
Source: Artemis program status pagesconf 85%
2026-11-06pendingSpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
2027-06-30pendingArtemis IV crew assigned and named publicly
How: NASA press conference names commander, pilot, mission specialists for Artemis IV (typically ~12-18 months before launch)
Source: Pattern from Artemis II crew announcement timingconf 70%
2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingSpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed lunar demo lands successfully
How: SpaceX or NASA press release confirms uncrewed Starship HLS makes a soft landing on lunar surface and powers up; required gate before Artemis IV crewed attempt
Source: Artemis program timeline + SLS Block 1B pageconf 50%
2027-09-30pendingSLS Block 1B with Exploration Upper Stage completes Green Run
How: NASA Stennis/Marshall confirms Exploration Upper Stage hot-fire complete; SLS Block 1B integrated for Artemis IV per NASA SLS program update
Source: NASA SLS Block 1B referenceconf 55%
2028-02-16pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2028-04-02pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2028-04-30pendingNASA confirms Artemis IV launch date within 90 days of T-0
How: NASA Flight Readiness Review press conference sets Artemis IV launch date within 2028 calendar window
Source: GAO-25-106943 NASA Artemis missions oversightconf 45%
2028-05-18pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2028-07-03pendingThe next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 22%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z22.2%-2.0pp

Network propagation: 24.2% → 22.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z24.2%-6.1pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.242 blend=0.242 LLR=-0.310 κ=0.90 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.9,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.8330426134812354,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3030021101760346,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.765,
      "label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby completes",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_II",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.31018080770274575,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms successful Artemis II free-return lunar flyby; Orion crew returns and splashdown verified per NASA press conference"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.24172902866563648,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1432234211839811,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.24172902866563648,
  "blended_posterior": 0.24172902866563648,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.31018080770274575,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z30.3%-14.7pp

Network propagation: 45.0% → 30.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cry — Codex Research Pack	41.6%	0.450	0.050	-0.003

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

4 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (4)

BA LMT NOC RTX

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	COD_SPC_003	SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026	Space	—
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_MARS_2031PLUS	Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_MARS_2026	Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2028-12-31	NASA Artemis IV astronaut lunar surface return target	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA OIG - NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-01
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-01
0.679	manifold	Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket]	7%	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.675	manifold	Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?	36%	mentions	pending	2026-06-05
0.673	manifold	Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?	18%	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.663	manifold	Will Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?	11%	mentions	pending	2026-05-25
0.651	polymarket	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1%	mentions	pending	2025-07-08
0.643	manifold	Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?	9%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.636	polymarket	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2%	mentions	pending	2025-07-08
0.636	polymarket	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	6%	mentions	pending	2025-07-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby completes",
      "source": "Artemis program status pages",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_II",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms successful Artemis II free-return lunar flyby; Orion crew returns and splashdown verified per NASA press conference"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.8,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "COD_SPC_003",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis IV crew assigned and named publicly",
      "source": "Pattern from Artemis II crew announcement timing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_IV",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA press conference names commander, pilot, mission specialists for Artemis IV (typically ~12-18 months before launch)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed lunar demo lands successfully",
      "source": "Artemis program timeline + SLS Block 1B page",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/reference/sls-space-launch-system-block-1b/",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX or NASA press release confirms uncrewed Starship HLS makes a soft landing on lunar surface and powers up; required gate before Artemis IV crewed attempt"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SLS Block 1B with Exploration Upper Stage completes Green Run",
      "source": "NASA SLS Block 1B reference",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/reference/sls-space-launch-system-block-1b/",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Stennis/Marshall confirms Exploration Upper Stage hot-fire complete; SLS Block 1B integrated for Artemis IV per NASA SLS program update"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-02-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-04-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA confirms Artemis IV launch date within 90 days of T-0",
      "source": "GAO-25-106943 NASA Artemis missions oversight",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-106943-highlights.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2028-04-30",
      "rese
... (truncated)