RTX
RTX Corp · NYSE · USA
Cap tier
Mega
Approx cap
$180.0B
Bull scenarios
38
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 38 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Themes & clusters
From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C7Jet-engine power deploymentLEO satellitesPhased Array / Satellite AntennaSolid rocket motors (hypersonics)
Investment thesis
From SRC_B Company Master
Aero+defense prime.
Bull scenarios (38)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 246_001 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Peter Diamandis | 78.6% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| SPC_016 | multi_vector | Space | AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... | Ben Lamm | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| SPC_015 | multi_vector | Space | AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... | Andrej Karpathy | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| CYB_021 | multi_vector | Space | Commercial orbital missions will increasingly depend on AI for advanced simulations, human health diagnostics in microgravity, and autonomous operation of spacecraft life-support systems — positioning AI as mission-critical infrastructure for sustained... | Jared Isaacman | 65.5% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| SPC_003 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fund... | Morgan Stanley | 65.1% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 246_008 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 62.4% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 231_037 | multi_vector | Space | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch their own. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 57.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_023 | multi_vector | Space | SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. | Gwynne Shotwell | 57.7% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 248_004 | multi_vector | Space | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 57.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_005 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $150M-$200M for 2026) to approximately $1 billion by 2027 — driven by direct-to-cell satellite technology commercialization. | Morgan Stanley | 55.7% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 246_004 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Peter Diamandis | 50.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_051 | multi_vector | Space | Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO. | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_005 | multi_vector | Space | Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) | Peter Diamandis | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_045 | multi_vector | Energy | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 47.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 231_035 | multi_vector | Space | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 246_002 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Peter Diamandis | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_026 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence | Peter Diamandis | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_021 | multi_vector | Space | Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. | Eric Schmidt | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| SPC_002 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... | Morgan Stanley | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| COD_SPC_001 | multi_vector | Space | Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing | Codex Research Pack | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_010 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... | Jared Isaacman | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 246_010 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_001 | multi_vector | Space | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_015 | multi_vector | Space | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_012 | multi_vector | Space | SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. | Peter Diamandis | 40.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_009 | multi_vector | Space | Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... | Gwynne Shotwell | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 234_040 | multi_vector | Real Estate | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_007 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Prediction markets | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_054 | multi_vector | Space | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_038 | multi_vector | Space | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_007 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_046 | multi_vector | Space | SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly. | Elon Musk | 32.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_044 | multi_vector | Space | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Peter Diamandis | 32.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_009 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_016 | multi_vector | Space | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| COD_SPC_002 | multi_vector | Space | The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 | Codex Research Pack | 22.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_016 | multi_vector | Space | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... | Gwynne Shotwell | 21.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_024 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Graduating class of 2035 (Generation Alpha) could entirely bypass traditional terrestrial office environments, trading cubicles for high-paying AI-driven careers in outer space and orbital infrastructure. | Sam Altman | 10.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
Adverse scenarios (0)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No adverse scenarios | |||||||