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246_002predictionMarkets/StocksSpaceX

SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
46.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
3 / 5
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-02-25overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-24hitStarlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026
    How: Quilty Space or Sacra forecast confirms Starlink crosses 10M subscribers AND tracks toward $20B 2026 revenue
    Source: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 95%
  3. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuation
    How: SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC for IPO targeting valuation above $2 trillion
    Source: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 95%
  4. 2026-04-21overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-01-01 → 2026-09-30overdueStarlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)
    How: Starlink reports monthly net subscriber additions averaging ≥1.5M per month, doubling 2025 pace
    Source: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 85%
  6. 2026-06-15pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingStarlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scale
    How: Quilty Space or SpaceX IPO disclosure shows Starlink EBITDA margins above 60% on 2026 results
    Source: https://sacra.com/c/spacex/conf 65%
  8. 2027-02-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling)
    How: SpaceX 2026 full-year revenue disclosed via IPO prospectus or Quilty/Sacra analyst report falls in $22-30B range vs $15-16B 2025
    Source: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/04/spacex-revenue-will-be-close-to-around-27-30-billion-in-2026.htmlconf 80%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z46.3%-7.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.463 blend=0.463 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5497684922277138,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.15507868364861682,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5386921583822184,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.74375,
      "label": "Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-17",
      "measurement_criterion": "Starlink reports monthly net subscriber additions averaging ≥1.5M per month, doubling 2025 pace"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6151620554406003,
  "outside_weight": 0.3848379445593997,
  "posterior_prob": 0.46344384794251586,
  "posterior_logit": -0.14648599050683042,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.46344384794251586,
  "blended_posterior": 0.46344384794251586,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z53.9%+1.5pp
Network propagation: 52.3% → 53.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z52.3%+3.1pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 52.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.3%+6.0pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 49.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z43.2%-17.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.432 blend=0.432 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6338685427014515,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.43193639607370266,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6063359670122864,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-21",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5562920201089838,
  "outside_weight": 0.4437079798910162,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4323485722532969,
  "posterior_logit": -0.27227540368855724,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4323485722532969,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4323485722532969,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.7042117997622599,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z60.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 62.1% → 60.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z62.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 62.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.650+0.139
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.650+0.115

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_035
SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for StarlPeter Diamandis
47.6%0.6500.050-0.121
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050-0.067
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.055
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050+0.050
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.034

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.772manifoldHow high will SpaceX get on the Market Cap Leaderboard in 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.693manifoldWill SpaceX exercise its $60B acquisition option for Cursor before December 31, 2026?76%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.690manifoldHow many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTCmentionspending2026-05-01
0.668gdeltjetblue jblu q1 2026 earnings 155409355.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.667manifoldHow high will Elons Musk Net Worth get before July 2026?mentionspending2026-06-04
0.639gdeltpolaris inc q1 2026 earnings 123000514.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.638manifoldWill New Glenn fly again in 2026?9%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.630gdeltkforce inc q1 2026 earnings 123000580.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.625manifoldWill Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?21%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.623manifoldWill SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12?17%mentionspending2026-05-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "qty": "$20B revenue",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.",
  "conv_cues": "expected to double",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026",
      "source": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Quilty Space or Sacra forecast confirms Starlink crosses 10M subscribers AND tracks toward $20B 2026 revenue"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuation",
      "source": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC for IPO targeting valuation above $2 trillion"
    },
    {
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      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-21",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)",
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      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-17",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
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      "measurement_criterion": "Starlink reports monthly net subscriber additions averaging ≥1.5M per month, doubling 2025 pace"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "even
... (truncated)