SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence
Verbatim quote
the 2025 revenues for SpaceX were about 16 billion, 8 billion in profit. Pretty healthy margin, right? 50%. And it's expected to double to 20 in 2026.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-25overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-24hitStarlink crosses 10M subscribers, tracking $20B revenue in 2026How: Quilty Space or Sacra forecast confirms Starlink crosses 10M subscribers AND tracks toward $20B 2026 revenueSource: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 95%
- 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidentially files for IPO at $2T+ valuationHow: SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC for IPO targeting valuation above $2 trillionSource: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 95%
- 2026-04-21overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-09-30overdueStarlink monthly net additions reach 1.5M users (2x 2025 pace)How: Starlink reports monthly net subscriber additions averaging ≥1.5M per month, doubling 2025 paceSource: https://www.advanced-television.com/2026/03/24/forecast-spacex-tracking-to-20bn-revenue-in-2026/conf 85%
- 2026-06-15pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingStarlink EBITDA margins exceed 60% confirming profitability scaleHow: Quilty Space or SpaceX IPO disclosure shows Starlink EBITDA margins above 60% on 2026 resultsSource: https://sacra.com/c/spacex/conf 65%
- 2027-02-01 → 2027-06-30pendingSpaceX 2026 total revenue lands $22-30B range (above doubling)How: SpaceX 2026 full-year revenue disclosed via IPO prospectus or Quilty/Sacra analyst report falls in $22-30B range vs $15-16B 2025Source: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/04/spacex-revenue-will-be-close-to-around-27-30-billion-in-2026.htmlconf 80%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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}Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_035 SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starl — Peter Diamandis | 47.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.121 |
| prereq | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early — Peter Diamandis | 42.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezv — Peter Diamandis | 30.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.050 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (17)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (3)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_035 | SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_012 | Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_013 | Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.772 | manifold | How high will SpaceX get on the Market Cap Leaderboard in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.693 | manifold | Will SpaceX exercise its $60B acquisition option for Cursor before December 31, 2026? | 76% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.690 | manifold | How many successful SpaceX launches in May 2026 UTC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.668 | gdelt | jetblue jblu q1 2026 earnings 155409355.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.667 | manifold | How high will Elons Musk Net Worth get before July 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.639 | gdelt | polaris inc q1 2026 earnings 123000514.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.638 | manifold | Will New Glenn fly again in 2026? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.630 | gdelt | kforce inc q1 2026 earnings 123000580.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.625 | manifold | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026? | 21% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.623 | manifold | Will SpaceX Plan a booster catch on Flight 12? | 17% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
Raw metadata
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"mode": "FORECAST",
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... (truncated)