S_IPO_TRILLION_2026scenarioipo_trillion_plus
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
Prior probability
25.0%
Current probability
25.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 37
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
SpaceX rumored late 2026 listing. xAI also rumored. Spring or fall window.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Linked
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 25%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company — Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.285 |
| prereq | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude — Peter Diamandis | 41.4% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.227 |
| prereq | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (c — Emad Mostaque | 31.2% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.175 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (37)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_004 | Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_027 | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SPC_004 | Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium launch market — 2025 revenue $602M (+38% YoY), market cap nearing $49B by early 2026 — as a key beneficiary of the SpaceX-ecosystem repricing wave. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | INF_024 | Venture capital will pivot from funding software startups toward financing national AI infrastructure — a16z has grown to $90B+ AUM by 2026 with 'American Dynamism' and core AI infrastructure as dominant theses; 'everything gets 10x bigger.' | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| correlate | 246_008 | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | ROB_023 | SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. | Space | — |
| correlate | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_004 | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_007 | SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_002 | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_010 | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Space | — |
| correlate | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | SPC_002 | A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| correlate | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 242_007 | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 239_004 | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 238_027 | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| correlate | COD_SPC_003 | SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 | Space | — |
| correlate | SPC_007 | SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.823 | manifold | Will SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026? | 62% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.798 | manifold | SpaceX closing market cap on IPO day? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.795 | manifold | When will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.786 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-25 |
| 0.784 | manifold | SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day? | 61% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.783 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | 72% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-25 |
| 0.783 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-01-23 |
| 0.782 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-13 |
| 0.780 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-01-23 |
| 0.769 | manifold | Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO? | 67% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "ipo",
"dimension": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "$1T+ IPO",
"family_order": 1,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}