OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-31pendingAnthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding roundHow: Anthropic press release or SEC Form D confirms close of round at >=$800B post-money valuation, widely reported as final pre-IPO roundSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingOpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SECHow: Public reporting (Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg) confirms OpenAI has filed confidential draft S-1 with SEC; or company press release announces filingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-07-31pendingOpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPOHow: Bloomberg / Reuters confirms named investment banks (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPM) hired as lead bookrunners for OpenAI offeringSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-15pendingOpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow beginsHow: EDGAR shows publicly filed S-1 from OpenAI parent entity with audited financials; roadshow scheduled per IFR / SEC filingsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026How: Common stock prices and trades on a major US exchange under a confirmed ticker; first-day close documentedSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingAnthropic confidential S-1 filingHow: Public reporting confirms Anthropic confidential S-1 filing or full S-1 lodged with SECSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.074 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.064 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.053 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.027 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (14)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_MID_2034 | ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years' | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Capital Markets 2027-12] rbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [246_006] Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; reve | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "we're about to see potentially the three largest IPOs ever. Uh SpaceX going out, you know, at 2 trillion. Uh Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.",
"conv_cues": "I think",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "End of 2026 / Early-mid 2027",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/30/anthropic-potential-900b-valuation-round-could-happen-within-two-weeks/",
"expected_date": "2026-05-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic press release or SEC Form D confirms close of round at >=$800B post-money valuation, widely reported as final pre-IPO round"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41205/will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-07-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Public reporting (Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg) confirms OpenAI has filed confidential draft S-1 with SEC; or company press release announces filing"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO",
"source": "
... (truncated)