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246_006predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
48.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31
Edges in / out
14 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.550

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 48.1% → blend 48.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-05-31pendingAnthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round
    How: Anthropic press release or SEC Form D confirms close of round at >=$800B post-money valuation, widely reported as final pre-IPO round
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingOpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC
    How: Public reporting (Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg) confirms OpenAI has filed confidential draft S-1 with SEC; or company press release announces filing
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2026-07-31pendingOpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO
    How: Bloomberg / Reuters confirms named investment banks (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPM) hired as lead bookrunners for OpenAI offering
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2026-11-15pendingOpenAI S-1 publicly available; roadshow begins
    How: EDGAR shows publicly filed S-1 from OpenAI parent entity with audited financials; roadshow scheduled per IFR / SEC filings
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI begins NYSE/Nasdaq trading by end-2026
    How: Common stock prices and trades on a major US exchange under a confirmed ticker; first-day close documented
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  6. 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingAnthropic confidential S-1 filing
    How: Public reporting confirms Anthropic confidential S-1 filing or full S-1 lodged with SEC
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.1%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 49.5% → 48.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 52.1% → 49.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.1%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 54.2% → 52.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z54.2%+1.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.542 w_in=0.41 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z52.8%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 54.2% → 52.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z54.2%-5.8pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.542 w_in=0.41 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.074
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.064
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.062
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.062
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.053

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.057
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.027
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.022
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.013
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (14)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_ASI_MID_2034ASI mid: Schmidt 'ASI in 6 years'asi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Capital Markets 2027-12] rbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [246_006] Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revepending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.840manifoldWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?11%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.801manifoldWill OpenAI overtake Anthropic in Valuation before 202865%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.790manifoldWill Anthropic IPO by….?mentionspending2026-06-02
0.784manifoldOpenAI closing market cap on IPO day?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.783manifoldWhat will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2030?mentionspending2026-05-30
0.769manifoldAnthropic closing market cap on IPO day?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.768manifoldHow long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?mentions2026-04-27
0.746polymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?54%mentionspending2026-05-19
0.744manifoldWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?34%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.735polymarketWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?41%mentionspending2026-05-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we're about to see potentially the three largest IPOs ever. Uh SpaceX going out, you know, at 2 trillion. Uh Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "Open AAI sometime at the end of this year. Uh and Anthropic, uh you know, it says IPO early mid 2027. And I think Anthropic wants to go out early this before the end of this year as well.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "End of 2026 / Early-mid 2027",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic closes $50B / ~$900B-valuation funding round",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/30/anthropic-potential-900b-valuation-round-could-happen-within-two-weeks/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic press release or SEC Form D confirms close of round at >=$800B post-money valuation, widely reported as final pre-IPO round"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI confidential S-1 filing with SEC",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41205/will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reporting (Reuters, WSJ, Bloomberg) confirms OpenAI has filed confidential draft S-1 with SEC; or company press release announces filing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI selects lead underwriters for IPO",
      "source": "
... (truncated)