S_IPO_TRILLION_2027scenarioipo_trillion_plus
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
40.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
0 / 30
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
OpenAI / SpaceX / Anthropic IPO most likely 2027 window.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Linked
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires — Peter Diamandis | 53.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.225 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (30)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_027 | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| correlate | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| correlate | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_004 | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_010 | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_007 | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| correlate | CYB_028 | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | SPC_002 | A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Space | — |
| correlate | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 242_007 | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.755 | manifold | When will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.754 | manifold | Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO? | 67% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.752 | manifold | Will SpaceX's IPO (ticker SPCX) price on or before June 11, 2026? | 62% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.738 | manifold | SpaceX closing market cap on IPO day? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.734 | manifold | Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.733 | manifold | Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.733 | manifold | What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-25 |
| 0.728 | manifold | Which prediction markets IPO in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.689 | manifold | Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24? | 62% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.681 | manifold | Google I/O 2026 Prop Bets! | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "ipo",
"dimension": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "$1T+ IPO",
"family_order": 2,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}