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246_001predictionMarkets/StocksSpaceX

SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
78.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
partial
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
5 / 14
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | SpaceX is, uh, is pricing itself right now at about a $2 trillion target valuation, raising $75 billion. Uh, the largest IPO of its kind. | Roadshow week of Jun 8, 2026; retail event Jun 11

Key catalyst: Roadshow week of Jun 8, 2026; retail event Jun 11

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
SpaceX is, uh, is pricing itself right now at about a $2 trillion target valuation, raising $75 billion. Uh, the largest IPO of its kind.

Resolution evidence

Status: partial

SpaceX filed confidentially for IPO April 2026 targeting ~$2T valuation, raise up to $75B. Multiple outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance) confirm. Road show timing matches Peter's 'June' call. Source: IndexBox, MarketWise, TradingKey, April 2026.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.708

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 78.6% → blend 78.6% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

9 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 78.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 5 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-02-14overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-31overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation
    How: SpaceX confidentially submits S-1 registration statement to SEC targeting $1.75T-$2T valuation and $75B raise
    Source: https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-s1-filed-ipo-planning/ — S-1 filed April 1, 2026conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Confidential S-1 filed at $2T target. Confirms scale and valuation core claim.
  4. 2026-04-01 → 2026-05-22overdueSpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline
    How: SpaceX S-1 audited financials confirm 2025 revenue at or above $15B, validating fundamental scale supporting IPO valuation
    Source: https://rollingout.com/2026/04/29/trillion-spacex-ipo-could-be-costly-trap/conf 90%
  5. 2026-05-14overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
  6. 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-22overdueSpaceX S-1 prospectus made public
    How: SpaceX files public S-1 with SEC including risk factors and audited financials, ≥15 days before any roadshow marketing per SEC rule
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/ — Motley Fool IPO timelineconf 85%
  7. 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15pendingSpaceX IPO roadshow begins week of June 8, 2026
    How: SpaceX investment bankers commence formal IPO roadshow with institutional investor meetings
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/conf 90%
    Notes: Diamandis prediction explicitly cites Jun 8 roadshow week + Jun 11 retail event.
  8. 2026-06-18 → 2026-06-30pendingSpaceX prices IPO and begins trading
    How: SpaceX prices IPO at or near $2T valuation, raises $75B, opens trading on NYSE/Nasdaq
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/conf 85%
    Notes: Pricing date typical ~10 days post-roadshow start.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 79%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z78.6%-6.5pp
Network propagation: 85.2% → 78.6%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z85.2%+7.8pp
intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.933 blend=0.852 LLR=1.408 κ=0.88 w_in=0.66 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.481731855298543,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": 1.6094379124341,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.227267441545576,
  "bayes_factor": "4.1:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "blend 66% inside / 34% outside (TRF=0.482, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.7733399548124485,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 1.6094379124341,
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Prediction window (2026-01..2026-09) aligns with the now-disclosed June 12, 2026 target listing date. Valuation band ($1",
      "adjusted_llr": 1.408258173379838
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6627877012910199,
  "outside_weight": 0.3372122987089801,
  "posterior_prob": 0.8515479706788956,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "in_progress",
      "evidence_strength": "strong",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.18
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 2.635525614925414,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.9331132456014398,
  "blended_posterior": 0.8515479706788956,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 1.408258173379838,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
intake_event_update2026-05-03T02:40:54Z68.0%+2.9pp
intake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ec bayesian_v2 inside=0.773 blend=0.680 LLR=0.602 κ=0.87 w_in=0.61 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5510597859647332,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": 0.6931471805599453,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.6253384299473197,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 39% outside (TRF=0.551, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.6514317153625363,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0.6931471805599453,
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "The IPO process is clearly active and the rumored raise size remains in the same order of magnitude as the watchlist tar",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.6019290115982564
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6142581498246867,
  "outside_weight": 0.3857418501753133,
  "posterior_prob": 0.6800189799941786,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "partial",
      "evidence_strength": "moderate",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.05
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 1.227267441545576,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.7733399548124485,
  "blended_posterior": 0.6800189799941786,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.6019290115982564,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z65.1%+3.9pp
Network propagation: 61.2% → 65.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z61.2%-19.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.678 blend=0.612 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 w_in=0.61 ipo_trillion_plus
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5517581791161151,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.4485834969340052,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 38% outside (TRF=0.552, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
  "inside_prior": 0.8097803370546196,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-14",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6137692746187193,
  "outside_weight": 0.38623072538128067,
  "posterior_prob": 0.6122719789329913,
  "posterior_logit": 0.7443716971717453,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.677951085392312,
  "blended_posterior": 0.6122719789329913,
  "reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.7042117997622599,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z81.0%+2.5pp
Network propagation: 78.5% → 81.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z78.5%-2.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.785 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z81.0%+2.5pp
Network propagation: 78.4% → 81.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z78.4%-13.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.784 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.064
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.920+0.029

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_012
Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvPeter Diamandis
30.5%0.6500.050+0.190
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050+0.149
prereq235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be bAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.4500.050+0.085
prereq246_013
Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in earlyPeter Diamandis
42.2%0.6500.050+0.074
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050+0.072

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

NNEPLBKSYASTSFLYGSATIRDMKRMNLUNRMNTSRKLBNOCORCLRTXLHXLMTBAAMZNGOOGLMSFTSFTBYMETA

Adverse (4)

VSATDISHLUMNSES

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (14)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_013Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028.Space
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq246_012Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests).Space
prereq242_005Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)Space
prereq232_051Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.Space
prereq242_037China will land on the moon before end of 2030Space
prereq232_046SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.Space
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq242_051Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few yearsSpace
prereq242_038Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via StarshipSpace
prereq235_040Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.Space
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Validations (2)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-05-03partialintake:515b84c4-6b29-4d57-8dd6-d41dac0675ecThe IPO process is clearly active and the rumored raise size remains in the same order of magnitude as the watchlist target. However, the most consistently reported public valuation anchor is still around $1.75T rather than a cleanly corroborated $2T, so this is progress rather than a full confirmation.
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importSpaceX filed confidentially for IPO April 2026 targeting ~$2T valuation, raise up to $75B. Multiple outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance) confirm. Road show timing matches Peter's 'June' call. Source: IndexBox, MarketWise, TradingKey, April 2026.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.810manifoldSpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day?61%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.804manifoldWill Spacex close above a $2.5 Trillion Market Cap on it's first day of trading (IPO)?15%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.802polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-01-23
0.802polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?72%mentionspending2026-03-25
0.801polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?0%mentionspending2026-03-25
0.799polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-01-23
0.798polymarketWill SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?99%mentionspending2026-04-13
0.789gdeltprediction spacex ipo reach 1 125000963.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.788polymarketSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?42%mentionspending2026-02-03
0.786manifoldWhen will SpaceX officially confirm an IPO?mentionspending2026-05-16

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": true,
  "qty": "$2T valuation, $75B raise",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Investor disclosure",
  "context": "SpaceX is going public with a $2 trillion valuation... SpaceX is pricing itself right now at about a $2 trillion target valuation, raising $75 billion. Uh, the largest IPO of its kind.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "SpaceX is, uh, is pricing itself right now at about a $2 trillion target valuation, raising $75 billion. Uh, the largest IPO of its kind.",
  "conv_cues": "pricing itself right now; largest IPO",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 (imminent, road show June)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-14",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX files confidential S-1 with SEC at $2T target valuation",
      "notes": "HIT — Confidential S-1 filed at $2T target. Confirms scale and valuation core claim.",
      "source": "https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-s1-filed-ipo-planning/ — S-1 filed April 1, 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://augustuswealth.com/blog/spacex-s1-filed-ipo-planning/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidentially submits S-1 registration statement to SEC targeting $1.75T-$2T valuation and $75B raise"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX 2025 revenue confirms $15.6B baseline",
      "source": "https://rollingout.com/2026/04/29/trillion-spacex-ipo-could-be-costly-trap/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://rollingout.com/2026/04/29/trillion-spacex-ipo-could-be-costly-trap/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-26",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-04T22:07:29.819814+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-22",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX S-1 audited financials confirm 2025 revenue at or above $15B, validating fundamental scale supporting IPO valuation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-14",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX S-1 prospectus made public",
      "source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/ — Motley Fool IPO timeline",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/",
      "e
... (truncated)