S_IPO_TRILLION_2028scenarioipo_trillion_plus
First $1T+ IPO in 2028
Prior probability
25.0%
Current probability
25.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-09-30
Edges in / out
0 / 26
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Delayed IPO timing — market conditions or regulatory.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Linked
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 25%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_022 All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars — Dave Blundin | 45.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.266 |
| prereq | 240_011 NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being fl — Dave Blundin | 41.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.240 |
| prereq | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF — Dave Blundin | 41.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.240 |
| prereq | 240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a — Dave Blundin | 41.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.240 |
| prereq | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point — Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.240 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (26)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_006 | Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_008 | Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-state | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 245_003 | Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_007 | Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_009 | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 246_004 | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_016 | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Space | — |
| correlate | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | CYB_028 | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.716 | polymarket | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-11 |
| 0.708 | manifold | Which prediction markets IPO in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.696 | manifold | Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.690 | manifold | Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24? | 62% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.689 | manifold | What will be the first one-person company to reach a $1 billion valuation? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-25 |
| 0.667 | manifold | 30T market cap company before 2027? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.654 | polymarket | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | 27% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-24 |
| 0.642 | polymarket | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 96% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-24 |
| 0.639 | manifold | Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029? | 65% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
| 0.635 | polymarket | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-24 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "ipo",
"dimension": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "$1T+ IPO",
"family_order": 3,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}