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236_008predictionMarkets/Stocks$100T

First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
70.0%
Current probability
53.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
8 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | one of the other conversations we had with Elon was we're going to see the first hundred trillion dollar companies and we're going to see multi- trillionaires coming online | Mega-merger announcements 2027-2029

Key catalyst: Mega-merger announcements 2027-2029

Watch events: Top market cap milestones: $10T single stock; $20T; $50T

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
one of the other conversations we had with Elon was we're going to see the first hundred trillion dollar companies and we're going to see multi- trillionaires coming online

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Same.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
1.000
TRF=0.96
Outside weight
0.000
no pull
inside 53.5% → blend 53.5% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 70%2026-04-302026-05-102026-05-21
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-02-07hitSpaceX merges with xAI at $1.25T valuation (Musk net worth >$800B)
    How: SpaceX-xAI merger closes at ~$1.25T combined valuation; Musk net worth crosses $800B
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/07/elon-musk-wants-to-be-a-trillionaire-how-spacex-xai-tesla-can-get-him-there.htmlconf 90%
  2. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX files preliminary IPO paperwork at $1.75T valuation
    How: SpaceX files S-1 or equivalent preliminary IPO documentation indicating ~$1.75T valuation
    Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/1/spacex-files-to-go-public-paving-way-to-make-elon-musk-first-trillionaireconf 97%
  3. 2026-04-15hitMusk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility
    How: Musk public statement or filing references $100T SpaceX valuation as 'possible' (matches Diamandis-via-Musk verbatim)
    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-thinks-spacex-could-013117699.htmlconf 95%
    Notes: DIRECT — Yahoo Finance: 'Musk thinks SpaceX could one day reach $100 trillion.' Confirms the verbatim claim attributed to Musk.
  4. 2026-07-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2026-10-09pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2026-08-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T
    How: Forbes/Bloomberg billionaire trackers record Musk personal net worth crossing $1T (post-SpaceX IPO)
    Source: https://fortune.com/2026/04/02/elon-musk-worlds-first-trillionaire-one-implication-of-the-massive-spacex-ipo/conf 70%
  7. 2026-11-30pendingScenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026
  8. 2026-12-29pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  9. 2027-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingMulti-trillionaire (>=2 individuals at $1T) — cascade
    How: Forbes/Bloomberg trackers record >=2 individuals with personal net worth >=$1T (multi-trillionaires per the prediction's plural framing)
    Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-02-26/elon-musk-and-the-first-trillionaire-what-rockefeller-s-fortune-showsconf 40%
  10. 2030-01-01 → 2040-12-31pendingFirst $100T market cap company — full prediction realization
    How: Public market cap of single company crosses $100T (per Musk/Diamandis specific verbatim claim)
    Source: https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/conf 15%
    Notes: Aggressive long-tail target. SpaceX at $1.75T 2026 IPO needs 57x growth to hit $100T.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 53%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z53.5%+0.0pp
intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.535 blend=0.535 LLR=0.000 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.9575889278787716,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": 0,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.1382516150966659,
  "bayes_factor": "1:1 (no signal)",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5345079572625913,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0,
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Multi-trillionaire path live with SpaceX IPO mechanics.",
      "adjusted_llr": 0
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5345079572625913,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "mentions",
      "status_change": "in_progress",
      "evidence_strength": "weak",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.01
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 0.1382516150966659,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [
    "19663"
  ],
  "inside_posterior": 0.5345079572625913,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5345079572625913,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z53.5%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 54.6% → 53.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.6%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 56.8% → 54.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.8%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 61.2% → 56.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z61.2%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 64.3% → 61.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z64.3%-5.7pp
Network propagation: 70.0% → 64.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_IPO_TRILLION_2027
First $1T+ IPO in 2027
40.0%0.7000.050-0.225
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.700+0.113
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.700+0.087
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.700+0.035
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.700-0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRCLIRBTRIOTMARASYMFANUYNVDABBAIGTLBAIABBNYAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAXYZ

Adverse (5)

HYGEMBMUBTLTLQD

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2031-03-31[Capital Markets 2031-03] lestones: $10T single stock; $20T; $50T [236_008] Top market cap milestones: $10T single stock; $20T; $50Tpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.751manifoldWill Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?40%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.667manifold2nd largest company end of July 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.664manifold2nd largest company end of June 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.663manifoldWhat Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.662manifold2nd largest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.661manifold2nd largest company end of August 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.656manifoldLargest company end of July 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.656manifold3rd largest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.652polymarketMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?67%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.651manifoldLargest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$100 trillion companies, multi-trillionaires",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "one of the other conversations we had with Elon was we're going to see the first hundred trillion dollar companies and we're going to see multi- trillionaires coming online",
  "verbatim": "one of the other conversations we had with Elon was we're going to see the first hundred trillion dollar companies and we're going to see multi- trillionaires coming online",
  "conv_cues": "going to see",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX merges with xAI at $1.25T valuation (Musk net worth >$800B)",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/07/elon-musk-wants-to-be-a-trillionaire-how-spacex-xai-tesla-can-get-him-there.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/07/elon-musk-wants-to-be-a-trillionaire-how-spacex-xai-tesla-can-get-him-there.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX-xAI merger closes at ~$1.25T combined valuation; Musk net worth crosses $800B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX files preliminary IPO paperwork at $1.75T valuation",
      "source": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/1/spacex-files-to-go-public-paving-way-to-make-elon-musk-first-trillionaire",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/1/spacex-files-to-go-public-paving-way-to-make-elon-musk-first-trillionaire",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX files S-1 or equivalent preliminary IPO documentation indicating ~$1.75T valuation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk publicly affirms $100T SpaceX possibility",
      "notes": "DIRECT — Yahoo Finance: 'Musk thinks SpaceX could one day reach $100 trillion.' Confirms the verbatim claim attributed to Musk.",
      "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-thinks-spacex-could-013117699.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-thinks-spacex-could-013117699.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Musk public statement or filing references $100T SpaceX valuation as 'possible' (matches Diamandis-via-Musk verbatim)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First trillionaire — Musk net worth crosses $1T",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/02/elon-musk-worlds-first-trillionaire-one-implication-of-the-massive-spacex-ipo/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/02/elon-musk-worlds-first-trillionaire-one-implication-of-the-massive-spacex-ipo/",
... (truncated)