TK12thesis_killerthesis_killer
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
Prior probability
8.0%
Current probability
8.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 39
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Banking regulators or Congress reverse stablecoin permissive posture; BTC ETF inflows halt; Tether/Circle wind-down risk; crypto -70%.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 8%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 238_011 Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new r — Peter Diamandis | 46.8% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.134 |
| killer | 242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company — Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.117 |
| killer | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires — Peter Diamandis | 53.5% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.113 |
| killer | 236_030 AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform h — Andrew Yang | 49.8% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.104 |
| killer | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer — Peter Diamandis | 46.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.096 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (39)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | SEM_039 | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Semis/ASICs | — |
| killer | 240_001 | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | AI_029 | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_011 | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion) | AI | — |
| killer | 236_030 | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | AI | — |
| killer | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_028 | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_042 | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_037 | Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 241_021 | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| killer | 247_007 | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 232_030 | AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_036 | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | AI | — |
| killer | 232_033 | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_031 | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this. | Crypto | — |
| killer | SEM_040 | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. | Finance/Crypto | — |
| killer | 231_051 | Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_038 | Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_050 | Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_038 | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Space | — |
| killer | 231_027 | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. | Other | — |
| killer | 234_016 | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | AI | — |
| killer | 245_004 | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_023 | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunity | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 240_018 | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | AI | — |
| killer | 235_031 | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_049 | If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | Crypto | — |
| killer | 245_022 | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| killer | 230_043 | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. | Crypto | — |
| killer | CYB_023 | Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... | Crypto | — |
| killer | AI_027 | Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... | Crypto | — |
| killer | SEM_007 | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. | AI/Strategy | — |
| killer | SEM_010 | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.666 | manifold | Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026? | 13% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.652 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | 39% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.648 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | 80% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.633 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? | 60% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.633 | manifold | Will ETH be more or less volatile than BTC this week? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.632 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | 66% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.630 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? | 64% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.629 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? | 59% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.629 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? | 54% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.628 | polymarket | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | 69% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "Banking regulators or Congress reverse stablecoin permissive posture; BTC ETF inflows halt; Tether/Circle wind-down risk; crypto -70%.",
"time_window": "2026-2028",
"scenario_name": "Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)",
"affected_domains": "Markets (24), AI (12), Biotech (4), Labor (2), Other (1)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Long MA/V",
"short crypto basket during regulatory deadlines"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Monthly — SEC/CFTC rulemaking; Congressional hearings",
"affected_pred_count": 45,
"early_warning_signals": "SEC chair change; Senate banking hearings hostile; Operation Choke Point 3.0 language",
"countervailing_factors": "Trump admin crypto embrace holds; stablecoin GENIUS/CLARITY Acts pass; global adoption forces US acceptance",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"230_043",
"231_027",
"231_049",
"231_051",
"232_030",
"232_031",
"232_032",
"232_033",
"232_038",
"232_060",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"Traditional payments (MA",
"V",
"PYPL)",
"gold",
"regulated fintech"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"COIN",
"MSTR",
"IBIT",
"FBTC",
"MARA",
"RIOT",
"HUT",
"CLSK",
"HOOD (crypto revenue)"
]
}