AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money.

AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. | I think that, uh, that banks AI will be a fullout economic actor and it will come from uh, you know, they'll be supported by new banks and new money. uh and that's going to be kind of crypto-based would be my strong prediction on that.

I think that, uh, that banks AI will be a fullout economic actor and it will come from uh, you know, they'll be supported by new banks and new money. uh and that's going to be kind of crypto-based would be my strong prediction on that.

Beneficiaries (11)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "I mean, I think that, uh, that banks AI will be a fullout economic actor and it will come from uh, you know, they'll be supported by new banks and new money. uh and that's going to be kind of crypto-based would be my strong prediction on that.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I think that, uh, that banks AI will be a fullout economic actor and it will come from uh, you know, they'll be supported by new banks and new money. uh and that's going to be kind of crypto-based would be my strong prediction on that.",
  "conv_cues": "strong prediction",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stablecoin transaction volume hits $33T in 2025; agentic-payments named primary 2026 driver",
      "notes": "HIT — direct precursor to 'crypto-based new banks and money' thesis at machine-to-machine layer.",
      "source": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/03/14/ai-developers-may-not-be-keen-on-crypto-but-stablecoins-are-the-secret-to-agentic-finance-crypto-insiders-say",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/a16z-argues-stablecoins-will-dominate-ai-agent-b2b-payments/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-14",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry reports (Visa Onchain, Allium, Coinbase) confirm 2025 stablecoin transaction volume reached $33T (+72% YoY), with public industry analyst attribution to agentic / M2M payments as 2026 growth driver"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OKX Agent Payments Framework and Coinbase x402 mature into multi-issuer standard",
      "source": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/04/29/okx-introduces-agent-payments-framework-for-on-chain-commerce/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://genfinity.io/2026/05/01/moonpay-moonagents-card-ai-agents-solana-mastercard-stablecoins/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OKX launches Agent Payments Framework AND ≥3 major exchanges/wallets ship x402-compatible (or equivalent) on-chain commerce primitives for AI agents"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GENIUS Act or successor stablecoin legislation creates legal pathway for agent-native banking",
      "source": "Congress.gov, Federal Register",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal stablecoin regulatory framework (GENIUS Act, Lummis-Gillibrand, or successor) enacted with provisions explicitly recognizing programmable/agentic transactions"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First de novo 'AI bank' chartered or licensed in major jurisdiction",
      "notes": "Direct test of Horowitz's 'new banks supporting AI as economic actor' wording.",
      "source": "OCC announcements, NYDFS bank charter list, FT/WSJ banking coverage",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OCC, NYDFS, or equivalent r
... (truncated)