TK10thesis_killerthesis_killer
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
Prior probability
12.0%
Current probability
12.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2031-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 86
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
US or Japanese sovereign debt event (failed auction, rating downgrade to AA-, yield spike > 7%); global risk-off; moonshot thesis freezes.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 12%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator — Jensen Huang | 53.7% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.173 |
| killer | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk | 37.7% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.157 |
| killer | SEM_046 AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly l — Joe Liemandt | 53.5% | 0.050 | 0.750 | +0.131 |
| killer | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.117 |
| killer | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Mu — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.117 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (86)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | SEM_039 | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Semis/ASICs | — |
| killer | SEM_048 | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). | AI/Corporate | — |
| killer | 240_001 | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | CMQ_023 | Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI factories' that consume electricity and data to manufacture tokens. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | CMQ_024 | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| killer | SEM_046 | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero. | AI/Startups | — |
| killer | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| killer | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | IND_011 | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| killer | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | CMQ_048 | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally within 2-3 years — decimating a massive sector of the service economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_040 | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Space | — |
| killer | 245_042 | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_030 | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | AI_029 | Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_028 | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 236_030 | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_045 | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. | Economy/Org | — |
| killer | 238_011 | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion) | AI | — |
| killer | 247_037 | Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 236_009 | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_018 | UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_034 | Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_022 | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_049 | US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_007 | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 241_021 | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_007 | US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| killer | AI_024 | As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... | Consumer | — |
| killer | SEM_040 | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. | Finance/Crypto | — |
| killer | 230_009 | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_051 | Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_030 | AI banks will emerge; AI will be full economic actor supported by crypto-based new banks and money. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_031 | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_033 | Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_042 | GDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_002 | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_068 | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_036 | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_038 | Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) | Crypto | — |
| killer | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | INF_029 | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporations will pay data-center operators directly for finalized outcomes (optimized supply chains, completed legal briefs, delivered marketing campaigns) rat... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_038 | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_022 | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_027 | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. | Other | — |
| killer | 247_050 | Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_045 | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | AI | — |
| killer | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 245_004 | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_023 | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunity | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 240_040 | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_042 | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_036 | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_030 | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 234_016 | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | AI | — |
| killer | 240_018 | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | AI | — |
| killer | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 235_031 | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_049 | If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | Crypto | — |
| killer | 245_022 | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_040 | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| killer | AI_015 | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_043 | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. | Crypto | — |
| killer | SEM_044 | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Space | — |
| killer | CYB_023 | Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... | Crypto | — |
| killer | AI_022 | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_027 | Autonomous AI agents cannot function efficiently on legacy slow-moving fiat banking rails — therefore AI systems will inevitably adopt Bitcoin and scalable cryptographic networks as their native digital capital, operating independently across borders a... | Crypto | — |
| killer | IND_018 | Imminent rise of 'techno-feudalism' — hidden inextricable alliance between Artificial Superintelligence and State power; AI treasury companies will violently concentrate global wealth. As AI hyper-automates labor and degrades fiat currency through QE n... | Crypto | — |
| killer | SEM_007 | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. | AI/Strategy | — |
| killer | SEM_010 | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.674 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 | |
| 0.660 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.659 | manifold | Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.659 | gdelt | 2580728 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.659 | manifold | Micron closes above $1,100 at end of month? | 71% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.658 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.656 | gdelt | nasdaq composite jolted openai stumble 134226671.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.656 | manifold | Steve Hilton And Spencer Pratt conditional Market | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.653 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.653 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "US or Japanese sovereign debt event (failed auction, rating downgrade to AA-, yield spike > 7%); global risk-off; moonshot thesis freezes.",
"time_window": "2027-2031",
"scenario_name": "$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis",
"affected_domains": "Markets (60), AI (18), Labor (8), Space (5), Biotech (4)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Gold",
"Bitcoin",
"Swiss franc",
"short-duration debt",
"bond/gold/BTC barbell"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Weekly — Treasury auction results, Fed commentary, global yields",
"affected_pred_count": 99,
"early_warning_signals": "Treasury auction bid-to-cover < 2.0×; Moody's downgrade; UK/Japan/Italy yields spike precede US",
"countervailing_factors": "Fed yield curve control; Treasury buybacks; flight-to-quality paradox keeps USTs bid",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_011",
"230_009",
"230_030",
"230_035",
"230_043",
"231_027",
"231_040",
"231_042",
"231_049",
"231_050",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"Gold (GLD",
"IAU)",
"Bitcoin (IBIT)",
"short-duration cash",
"Swiss franc"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"Risk assets broadly",
"high-multiple tech",
"long-duration bonds"
]
}