Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | also, you know, his prediction that the global economy will grow 10x in 10 years uh this is dirt cheap if any of those things are true
Verbatim quote
also, you know, his prediction that the global economy will grow 10x in 10 years uh this is dirt cheap if any of those things are true
Resolution evidence
See 239_001.
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-19hitIMF 2026 global GDP growth outlook 3.3% (AI-boom driver)How: IMF World Economic Outlook publication shows 3.3% global growth with AI investment as key driverSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingAnnual global GDP growth crosses 5% (single year)How: World Bank / IMF reports calendar-year global real GDP growth >=5% (not seen since pre-2010)Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingAI productivity contribution to global growth measured at >=1pp annualHow: IMF or OECD attributes >=1 percentage point of global growth specifically to AI productivity in published WEOSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingGlobal GDP growth crosses 10% calendar yearHow: IMF / World Bank global real GDP growth >=10% in any calendar yearSource: llm_enrichedconf 15%
- 2036-12-31pendingGlobal GDP nominal value crosses 10x 2025 baseline (~$1,150T)How: IMF / World Bank nominal global GDP exceeds 10x 2025 baseline of approximately $115T (i.e., >=$1.15 quadrillion)Source: llm_enrichedconf 5%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible ou — Andrew Yang | 40.6% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.124 |
| prereq | 232_022 Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due — Ben Horowitz | 41.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.117 |
| prereq | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity — Mike Wilson | 42.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.105 |
| prereq | 238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually t — Mark Pack Donovan | 42.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.105 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (21)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_048 | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). | AI/Corporate | — |
| prereq | SEM_039 | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. | Semis/ASICs | — |
| prereq | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| prereq | SEM_046 | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero. | AI/Startups | — |
| prereq | SEM_045 | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. | Economy/Org | — |
| prereq | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_022 | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_018 | UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_009 | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_068 | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_036 | Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_040 | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. | Finance/Crypto | — |
| prereq | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_022 | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.651 | gdelt | 20260429001332 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.633 | manifold | Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027? | 42% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "10x growth",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"caveats": "Conditional",
"context": "his prediction that the global economy will grow 10x in 10 years",
"to_year": 2036,
"cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
"verbatim": "also, you know, his prediction that the global economy will grow 10x in 10 years uh this is dirt cheap if any of those things are true",
"conv_cues": "prediction; if any of those things are true",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2036,
"timeframe": "2036 (10 years)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "IMF 2026 global GDP growth outlook 3.3% (AI-boom driver)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/january/english/text.pdf",
"expected_date": "2026-01-19",
"observed_date": "2026-01-19",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "IMF World Economic Outlook publication shows 3.3% global growth with AI investment as key driver"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "238_068",
"expected_date": "2026-08-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "236_045",
"expected_date": "2028-06-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Annual global GDP growth crosses 5% (single year)",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2028-12-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "World Bank / IMF reports calendar-year global real GDP growth >=5% (not seen since pre-2010)"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "232_022",
"expected_date": "2029-11-01",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "230_009",
"expected_date": "2030-03-05",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI productivity contribution to global growth measured at >=1pp annual",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/imf-sees-steady-global-growth-in-2026-as-ai-boom-offsets-trade-headwinds-4453544",
"expected_date": "2030-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2032-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "IMF or OECD attributes >=1 percentage point of global growth specifically to AI productivity in published WEO"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "236_018",
... (truncated)