TK14thesis_killerthesis_killer
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
Prior probability
20.0%
Current probability
20.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 427
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Broad equity market selloff 40%+ wipes out risk appetite for speculative themes; private moonshot rounds freeze; AI capex cuts 50%.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 20%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.216 |
| killer | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.215 |
| killer | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.187 |
| killer | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.182 |
| killer | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.174 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (427)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| killer | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| killer | 229_047 | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_020 | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. | Education | — |
| killer | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_024 | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| killer | SEM_046 | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero. | AI/Startups | — |
| killer | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_033 | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | AI | — |
| killer | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| killer | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 247_034 | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 237_025 | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_048 | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally within 2-3 years — decimating a massive sector of the service economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 236_008 | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_030 | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_003 | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 241_060 | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Space | — |
| killer | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_054 | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Space | — |
| killer | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| killer | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| killer | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_026 | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Space | — |
| killer | 241_024 | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Space | — |
| killer | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_056 | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | AI | — |
| killer | 241_011 | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| killer | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| killer | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 238_004 | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_002 | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_018 | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_030 | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | AI | — |
| killer | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| killer | 237_001 | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_028 | Lab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental option | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_016 | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | Education | — |
| killer | SEM_045 | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. | Economy/Org | — |
| killer | 247_046 | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_041 | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_036 | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| killer | 245_042 | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 244_032 | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| killer | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_057 | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Space | — |
| killer | 242_040 | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Space | — |
| killer | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| killer | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| killer | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_017 | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Energy | — |
| killer | 229_007 | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| killer | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| killer | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| killer | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_014 | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_007 | US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_009 | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_010 | 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| killer | 236_018 | UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| killer | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| killer | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| killer | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_049 | US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 237_024 | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | AI | — |
| killer | 238_017 | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_005 | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | AI | — |
| killer | 240_014 | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | AI | — |
| killer | 240_025 | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | AI | — |
| killer | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| killer | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| killer | 241_036 | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | AI | — |
| killer | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| killer | 241_047 | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Education | — |
| killer | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| killer | 241_049 | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | AI | — |
| killer | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| killer | 241_062 | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | AI | — |
| killer | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 242_006 | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | AI | — |
| killer | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_054 | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | AI | — |
| killer | 243_026 | Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_041 | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| killer | 243_043 | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| killer | 244_001 | Technology will always be a part of the human driving experience | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_004 | Race car driving will persist as a sport | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_008 | If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up | Other | — |
| killer | 244_014 | AV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offer | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_016 | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_023 | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_030 | Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world | Other | — |
| killer | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 244_034 | Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite | Other | — |
| killer | 244_035 | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Other | — |
| killer | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_009 | Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_026 | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_027 | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_035 | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 247_001 | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | AI | — |
| killer | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_007 | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| killer | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_024 | As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... | Consumer | — |
| killer | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| killer | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_029 | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporations will pay data-center operators directly for finalized outcomes (optimized supply chains, completed legal briefs, delivered marketing campaigns) rat... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 229_006 | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 229_015 | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
| killer | 244_027 | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_009 | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| killer | 241_032 | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | AI | — |
| killer | 241_033 | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | AI | — |
| killer | 241_034 | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | AI | — |
| killer | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| killer | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| killer | 241_040 | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | AI | — |
| killer | 241_041 | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | AI | — |
| killer | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_046 | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | AI | — |
| killer | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_008 | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| killer | 232_013 | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_068 | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_025 | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | AI | — |
| killer | 237_012 | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 243_039 | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Robotics | — |
| killer | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| killer | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| killer | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_014 | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 230_009 | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_006 | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | AI | — |
| killer | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_013 | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs | AI | — |
| killer | 242_039 | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Space | — |
| killer | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 243_004 | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_053 | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 238_021 | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | AI | — |
| killer | 236_002 | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 240_023 | 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_042 | GDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_033 | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| killer | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 237_016 | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 237_018 | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_001 | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | AI | — |
| killer | 238_002 | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights | AI | — |
| killer | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_005 | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | AI | — |
| killer | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_022 | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_024 | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| killer | 238_031 | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Other | — |
| killer | 238_039 | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | AI | — |
| killer | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| killer | 238_043 | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_044 | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_045 | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| killer | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_030 | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_015 | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | AI | — |
| killer | 231_046 | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_040 | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_042 | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_046 | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 240_047 | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Robotics | — |
| killer | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 241_035 | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | AI | — |
| killer | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_043 | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_018 | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstraction | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_027 | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_024 | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 230_027 | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| killer | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_028 | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_032 | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 248_036 | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_049 | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_001 | Synthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human history | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_004 | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_008 | More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_020 | Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry | Other | — |
| killer | 245_021 | Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_023 | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunity | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_006 | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | AI | — |
| killer | 234_007 | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | AI | — |
| killer | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_016 | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | AI | — |
| killer | 245_030 | Humans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental change | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_026 | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | AI | — |
| killer | 234_027 | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_044 | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | AI | — |
| killer | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| killer | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 232_038 | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Space | — |
| killer | 245_035 | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| killer | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| killer | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_043 | Breaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface area | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_023 | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_028 | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. | AI | — |
| killer | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_022 | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_036 | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| killer | 229_004 | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 245_022 | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_018 | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | AI | — |
| killer | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_045 | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_044 | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| killer | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_002 | Every company should or will be an AI company | AI | — |
| killer | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| killer | 246_030 | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 245_010 | Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_013 | Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_017 | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 246_034 | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_009 | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_010 | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| killer | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| killer | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| killer | 245_044 | Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombs | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| killer | 246_048 | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| killer | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| killer | 240_004 | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | AI | — |
| killer | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| killer | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| killer | 231_040 | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_019 | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans. | Space | — |
| killer | 240_031 | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | AI | — |
| killer | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| killer | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| killer | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_050 | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck close | Other | — |
| killer | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 245_031 | 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_032 | Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education | Other | — |
| killer | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_021 | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | AI | — |
| killer | 242_041 | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Space | — |
| killer | 240_052 | Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| killer | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| killer | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_034 | Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | Other | — |
| killer | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| killer | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_014 | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 235_031 | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_025 | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Other | — |
| killer | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| killer | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| killer | 247_012 | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | AI | — |
| killer | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| killer | 248_031 | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| killer | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| killer | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| killer | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_035 | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_029 | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| killer | AI_015 | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_014 | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | AI_022 | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_053 | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_010 | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.663 | gdelt | dow s p 500 slip as fed holds rates eyes turn to mega cap earnings 1091413.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.656 | manifold | S&P 500 close this week | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.652 | manifold | S&p500 May 2026 prop bets | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.637 | gdelt | meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.633 | gdelt | big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.620 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.620 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.613 | manifold | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845 | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.611 | gdelt | why investors didnt give meta a pass on increased spending despite a great quarter.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.609 | manifold | Daily Coinflip | 50% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "Broad equity market selloff 40%+ wipes out risk appetite for speculative themes; private moonshot rounds freeze; AI capex cuts 50%.",
"time_window": "2026-2029",
"scenario_name": "Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)",
"affected_domains": "AI (279), Markets (149), Labor (107), Biotech (43), Geopolitics (37)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"VIX calls",
"long puts on QQQ/ARKK",
"gold",
"BRK.B",
"cash"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Weekly — market breadth, margin debt, sentiment surveys",
"affected_pred_count": 736,
"early_warning_signals": "Margin debt > $1T at 2025 peak; Shiller CAPE > 38; VIX < 12 for > 6mo; speculative call volume record; QQQ/SPY RSI divergences",
"countervailing_factors": "Earnings delivery offsets; AI productivity validates multiples; Fed liquidity backstop",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_003",
"229_004",
"229_006",
"229_007",
"229_011",
"229_013",
"229_015",
"229_024",
"229_025",
"229_026",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"Cash",
"gold",
"BRK.B",
"defensive staples",
"short-duration IG"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"All AI/robotics/space/biotech moonshots",
"private tech",
"SPACs"
]
}