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237_007predictionAIAI-timing

Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.

Predictor: Alex Finn · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
42.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | Well, I would imagine basically every other company is going to eventually try to get to that state.

Watch events: Apple WWDC 2026 June 8-12 keynote

Verbatim quote

From episode "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer"
Well, I would imagine basically every other company is going to eventually try to get to that state.

Predictor: Alex Finn

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0122
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Finn is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-10-31pendingSamsung Galaxy AI ships fully on-device flagship suite (Q4 2026 launch class)
    How: Samsung Galaxy S26 or Note-class device launches with Galaxy AI features marketed as on-device (no cloud round-trip) at OS layer; press release + Samsung Newsroom
    Source: AI on-device LLM 2026 industry trajectoryconf 60%
  2. 2026-12-31pendingApple ships LLM-powered Siri with deeper OS hooks
    How: Apple releases iOS update (announced WWDC 2026) that exposes on-device foundation model via Foundation Models framework + new Siri across system apps; Apple keynote or press release confirms general availability
    Source: Apple machine learning research + Apple Intelligence updatesconf 75%
  3. 2027-04-30pendingGoogle ships Gemini Nano as Pixel/Android OS-integrated layer
    How: Android 17 or Pixel feature drop ships Gemini Nano as a system service that third-party apps can invoke without cloud calls; documented at Google I/O or Android developers blog
    Source: Apple-Google 2026 Gemini partnership coverage; pattern of competitive matchingconf 70%
  4. 2027-06-30pendingMicrosoft ships Windows-integrated local Copilot that runs offline on Copilot+ PCs
    How: Windows 12 or Windows 11 feature update enables offline Copilot inference on NPU-equipped Copilot+ PCs at the OS level (not just app); Microsoft Build keynote or release notes
    Source: Apple Intelligence Foundation Language Models tech report 2025conf 70%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-22pendingAt least 3 of top 5 OEM/OS vendors confirm OS-integrated local AI roadmaps
    How: Independent count: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, Meta — three or more publicly commit on developer keynote stages to OS-layer local LLM by 2028
    Source: Composite of WWDC 2026 + Google I/O 2026 + MS Build 2026 trajectoriesconf 75%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.1%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 42.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.2%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 44.7% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.072
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.044
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5000.050-0.040
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.079
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.068
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.057
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.052
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.030

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.564manifoldWill Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps85%mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Other",
  "context": "If Apple doesn't deliver this within some time frame, what's your recourse? What what would what other company would you go to? >> Well, I would imagine basically every other company is going to eventually try to get to that state.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "Well, I would imagine basically every other company is going to eventually try to get to that state.",
  "conv_cues": "I would imagine; eventually",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Samsung Galaxy AI ships fully on-device flagship suite (Q4 2026 launch class)",
      "source": "AI on-device LLM 2026 industry trajectory",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.webpronews.com/apples-privacy-first-ai-strategy-on-device-llms-by-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Samsung Galaxy S26 or Note-class device launches with Galaxy AI features marketed as on-device (no cloud round-trip) at OS layer; press release + Samsung Newsroom"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple ships LLM-powered Siri with deeper OS hooks",
      "source": "Apple machine learning research + Apple Intelligence updates",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/apple-foundation-models-2025-updates",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Apple releases iOS update (announced WWDC 2026) that exposes on-device foundation model via Foundation Models framework + new Siri across system apps; Apple keynote or press release confirms general availability"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Google ships Gemini Nano as Pixel/Android OS-integrated layer",
      "source": "Apple-Google 2026 Gemini partnership coverage; pattern of competitive matching",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,

... (truncated)