Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | in 2030 uh we've already launched uh Europa Clipper. Uh it's going to be arriving in at Jupiter in 2030. It's going to be doing 50 passes near Europa
Verbatim quote
in 2030 uh we've already launched uh Europa Clipper. Uh it's going to be arriving in at Jupiter in 2030. It's going to be doing 50 passes near Europa
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-12-03pendingEuropa Clipper Earth gravity assist on Dec 3, 2026How: JPL confirms successful Earth flyby gravity assist; trajectory verified for Jupiter arrival in April 2030Source: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/conf 95%
- 2027-12-01 → 2028-12-31pendingEuropa Clipper interplanetary cruise nominal status review (mid-cruise)How: NASA/JPL publishes mid-cruise health review confirming spacecraft, instrument suite (9 instruments), and trajectory all nominal for 2030 arrivalSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Clipperconf 85%
- 2029-09-01 → 2029-12-31pendingApproach phase begins (~6 months before Jupiter Orbit Insertion)How: JPL declares Approach phase per published Mission Timeline (~6 months before April 11, 2030 JOI); first long-range Jupiter observations beginSource: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/conf 85%
- 2030-04-10pendingGanymede gravity-assist flyby (~120 km altitude, ~12h before JOI)How: JPL confirms 200 km close flyby of Ganymede 12 hours before Jupiter Orbit InsertionSource: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/conf 85%
- 2030-04-11pendingJupiter Orbit Insertion (JOI) burnHow: Successful 6-hour engine burn slowing spacecraft into Jupiter orbit; JPL real-time confirmationSource: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/press-kits/europa-clipper/mission/conf 85%
- 2031-01-01 → 2031-06-30pendingCascade: First of ~49 Europa science flybys beginsHow: JPL confirms first close Europa flyby (post-tour-setup) producing science data from radar, magnetometer, mass spectrometer, and imaging instrumentsSource: https://www.space.com/europa-clipper-mission-explainedconf 80%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.213 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.183 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.153 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.129 |
| prereq | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given cu — Dave Blundin | 75.4% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.120 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 20 — Codex Research Pack | 48.4% | 0.950 | 0.050 | -0.107 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (82)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| prereq | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_SPC_004 | Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 | Space | — |
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Expected milestones (3)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist | pending |
| 2030-04-30 | Europa Clipper Jupiter Orbit Insertion | pending |
| 2030-12-31 | [Space 2030-12] rlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blac [246_017] Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. [SPC_015] FCC autonomous-collision-avoidance rulemaking; Kessler-syndrome risk metrics | pending |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timeline | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedule | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-09-08 |
| 0.556 | manifold | Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026? | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "50 passes near Europa",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "in 2030 uh we've already launched uh Europa Clipper. Uh it's going to be arriving in at Jupiter in 2030.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "in 2030 uh we've already launched uh Europa Clipper. Uh it's going to be arriving in at Jupiter in 2030. It's going to be doing 50 passes near Europa",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2030,
"timeframe": "2030",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist on Dec 3, 2026",
"source": "https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/press-kits/europa-clipper/mission/",
"expected_date": "2026-12-03",
"research_origin": "training",
"measurement_criterion": "JPL confirms successful Earth flyby gravity assist; trajectory verified for Jupiter arrival in April 2030"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "229_032",
"expected_date": "2027-11-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "229_025",
"expected_date": "2028-06-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Europa Clipper interplanetary cruise nominal status review (mid-cruise)",
"source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Clipper",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2028-06-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2027-12-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NASA/JPL publishes mid-cruise health review confirming spacecraft, instrument suite (9 instruments), and trajectory all nominal for 2030 arrival"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "230_008",
"expected_date": "2028-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "230_015",
"expected_date": "2028-07-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "229_003",
"expected_date": "2028-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "230_005",
"expected_date": "2028-08-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Approach phase begins (~6 months before Jupiter Orbit Insertion)",
"source": "https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
... (truncated)