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242_013predictionAuto/TransportAI-timing

Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-10-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-05-15hitArcher named official LA28 Olympics air-taxi provider
    How: Archer Aviation announces partnership as official LA28 air taxi provider with Midnight aircraft
    Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxiconf 99%
  2. 2026-01-01hitArcher Midnight reaches 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance
    How: Archer publicly confirms 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance ahead of TIA
    Source: https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/conf 90%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJoby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOL
    How: FAA grants Type Certificate to Joby S4 or Archer Midnight
    Source: FAA certification database, Joby/Archer 10-K filingsconf 65%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst commercial passenger eVTOL flight in continental U.S.
    How: Paying-passenger eVTOL service launches in U.S. (LA, NYC, Bay, or Miami)
    Source: Joby/Archer earnings releases, FAA Part 135 service registryconf 55%
  5. 2028-06-01 → 2028-07-31pending≥3 LA vertiports operating by Olympics opening (July 2028)
    How: ≥3 dedicated vertiports operational in LA metro for LA28 Games
    Source: Archer-LA28 partnership reporting, FAA airspace ordersconf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.6%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 54.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.0%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 58.1% → 56.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6500.050-0.097
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.059
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6500.050-0.054
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.050
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.044

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.033
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.031
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.016
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050+0.011
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028robotaxi_deployment
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026robotaxi_deployment
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.638manifoldWill New Glenn fly again in 2026?9%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.618manifoldWill Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?34%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.605manifoldWill there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)24%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.586polymarketWill Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?1%mentionspending2025-10-09
0.580polymarketWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?13%mentionspending2025-10-09
0.578polymarketGTA VI released before June 2026?0%mentionspending2025-05-02
0.578polymarketWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?24%mentionspending2025-10-09
0.568polymarketWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?0%mentionspending2025-07-16
0.562polymarketWill Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?19%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.558polymarketWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?0%mentionspending2025-06-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.",
  "conv_cues": "should be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Archer named official LA28 Olympics air-taxi provider",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Archer Aviation announces partnership as official LA28 air taxi provider with Midnight aircraft"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Archer Midnight reaches 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance",
      "source": "https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-01",
        "from": "2025-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Archer publicly confirms 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance ahead of TIA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Joby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOL",
      "source": "FAA certification database, Joby/Archer 10-K filings",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_orig
... (truncated)