Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.
Verbatim quote
Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-15hitArcher named official LA28 Olympics air-taxi providerHow: Archer Aviation announces partnership as official LA28 air taxi provider with Midnight aircraftSource: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxiconf 99%
- 2026-01-01hitArcher Midnight reaches 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptanceHow: Archer publicly confirms 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance ahead of TIASource: https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/conf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJoby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOLHow: FAA grants Type Certificate to Joby S4 or Archer MidnightSource: FAA certification database, Joby/Archer 10-K filingsconf 65%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFirst commercial passenger eVTOL flight in continental U.S.How: Paying-passenger eVTOL service launches in U.S. (LA, NYC, Bay, or Miami)Source: Joby/Archer earnings releases, FAA Part 135 service registryconf 55%
- 2028-06-01 → 2028-07-31pending≥3 LA vertiports operating by Olympics opening (July 2028)How: ≥3 dedicated vertiports operational in LA metro for LA28 GamesSource: Archer-LA28 partnership reporting, FAA airspace ordersconf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.097 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.044 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.031 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.016 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.005 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 | Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "Should be here in LA in 2028 in a big way.",
"conv_cues": "should be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Archer named official LA28 Olympics air-taxi provider",
"source": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
"expected_date": "2025-05-15",
"observed_date": "2025-05-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Archer Aviation announces partnership as official LA28 air taxi provider with Midnight aircraft"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Archer Midnight reaches 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance",
"source": "https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/joby-archer-evtol-milestones-progress/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-16",
"observed_date": "2026-01-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-04-01",
"from": "2025-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Archer publicly confirms 100% FAA Means-of-Compliance acceptance ahead of TIA"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
"expected_date": "2026-11-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Joby or Archer secures FAA Type Certification for eVTOL",
"source": "FAA certification database, Joby/Archer 10-K filings",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_orig
... (truncated)