Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.
Verbatim quote
this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01 → 2027-12-31pendingNASA Dragonfly enters full system integration phaseHow: NASA APL announces start of full spacecraft integration testing for Dragonfly, confirming launch readiness trajectorySource: https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/readying-for-integration-test-nasa-adapts-dragonfly-for-long-descent-thick-air-of-titan/conf 85%
- 2026-04-01 → 2028-06-30pendingDragonfly $3.35B program-cost or schedule risk materializes (potential delay/scope event)How: NASA OIG, GAO, or Congressional testimony flags Dragonfly cost overrun beyond $3.35B baseline OR schedule slip past July 2028 launch periodSource: https://dronexl.co/2026/03/05/nasa-dragonfly-enters-full-assembly-phase/conf 40%
- 2028-07-05 → 2028-07-25pendingDragonfly launch on SpaceX Falcon Heavy in July 2028 launch windowHow: SpaceX Falcon Heavy successfully launches Dragonfly on Titan trajectory within published July 5-25, 2028 launch periodSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)conf 70%
- 2030-12-01 → 2031-12-31pendingDragonfly mid-cruise health check confirms nominal trajectory toward TitanHow: NASA mission status update reports Dragonfly mid-cruise (approximately year 3 of 6) operating nominally on Titan-bound trajectorySource: https://science.nasa.gov/missions/dragonfly/nasas-dragonfly-rotorcraft-mission-to-saturns-moon-titan-confirmed/conf 75%
- 2034-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingDragonfly Titan atmospheric entry, descent, and landing (EDL) executedHow: NASA confirms Dragonfly successful powered landing in Shangri-La region of Titan in 2034Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasas-dragonfly-mission-will-send-a-nuclear-powered-flying-drone-to-titan/conf 55%
- 2034-06-01 → 2035-06-30pendingCascade: Dragonfly first powered atmospheric flight on Titan executed (first such flight on any natural satellite)How: NASA confirms first successful Dragonfly rotor flight in Titan atmosphere, achieving prebiotic-chemistry sampling milestoneSource: https://thebloom.news/dragonfly-nasas-future-mission-to-titan/conf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.234 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.204 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.174 |
| prereq | 229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction — Dave Blundin | 22.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.166 |
| prereq | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just pi — Alex Wissner-Gross | 25.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.162 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 — Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.219 |
| prereq | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years — Elon Musk | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.088 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (303)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| prereq | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| prereq | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| prereq | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| prereq | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| prereq | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| prereq | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| prereq | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| prereq | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| prereq | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| prereq | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| prereq | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_SPC_005 | NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-07-31 | NASA Dragonfly launch window on Falcon Heavy | pending |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timeline | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.900 | codex_research_pack | NASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedule | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-09-08 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "this is Dragonfly... Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.",
"to_year": 2034,
"verbatim": "this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2034,
"timeframe": "2034",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "NASA Dragonfly enters full system integration phase",
"source": "https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/readying-for-integration-test-nasa-adapts-dragonfly-for-long-descent-thick-air-of-titan/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2027-02-14",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NASA APL announces start of full spacecraft integration testing for Dragonfly, confirming launch readiness trajectory"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Dragonfly $3.35B program-cost or schedule risk materializes (potential delay/scope event)",
"source": "https://dronexl.co/2026/03/05/nasa-dragonfly-enters-full-assembly-phase/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2027-05-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NASA OIG, GAO, or Congressional testimony flags Dragonfly cost overrun beyond $3.35B baseline OR schedule slip past July 2028 launch period"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "229_032",
"expected_date": "2027-11-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "229_038",
"expected_date": "2028-01-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "229_025",
"expected_date": "2028-06-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Dragonfly launch on SpaceX Falcon Heavy in July 2028 launch window",
"source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2028-07-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-07-25",
"from": "2028-07-05"
},
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX Falcon Heavy successfully launches Dragonfly on Titan trajectory within published July 5-25, 2028 launch period"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "229_003",
"expected_date": "2028-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
"status": "pending"
... (truncated)