← Cockpit
246_016predictionSpaceAI-timing

Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
35.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2034-01-01 – 2034-11-30
Edges in / out
303 / 6
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 11 pending
  1. 2026-04-01 → 2027-12-31pendingNASA Dragonfly enters full system integration phase
    How: NASA APL announces start of full spacecraft integration testing for Dragonfly, confirming launch readiness trajectory
    Source: https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/readying-for-integration-test-nasa-adapts-dragonfly-for-long-descent-thick-air-of-titan/conf 85%
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2028-06-30pendingDragonfly $3.35B program-cost or schedule risk materializes (potential delay/scope event)
    How: NASA OIG, GAO, or Congressional testimony flags Dragonfly cost overrun beyond $3.35B baseline OR schedule slip past July 2028 launch period
    Source: https://dronexl.co/2026/03/05/nasa-dragonfly-enters-full-assembly-phase/conf 40%
  3. 2028-07-05 → 2028-07-25pendingDragonfly launch on SpaceX Falcon Heavy in July 2028 launch window
    How: SpaceX Falcon Heavy successfully launches Dragonfly on Titan trajectory within published July 5-25, 2028 launch period
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)conf 70%
  4. 2030-12-01 → 2031-12-31pendingDragonfly mid-cruise health check confirms nominal trajectory toward Titan
    How: NASA mission status update reports Dragonfly mid-cruise (approximately year 3 of 6) operating nominally on Titan-bound trajectory
    Source: https://science.nasa.gov/missions/dragonfly/nasas-dragonfly-rotorcraft-mission-to-saturns-moon-titan-confirmed/conf 75%
  5. 2034-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingDragonfly Titan atmospheric entry, descent, and landing (EDL) executed
    How: NASA confirms Dragonfly successful powered landing in Shangri-La region of Titan in 2034
    Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasas-dragonfly-mission-will-send-a-nuclear-powered-flying-drone-to-titan/conf 55%
  6. 2034-06-01 → 2035-06-30pendingCascade: Dragonfly first powered atmospheric flight on Titan executed (first such flight on any natural satellite)
    How: NASA confirms first successful Dragonfly rotor flight in Titan atmosphere, achieving prebiotic-chemistry sampling milestone
    Source: https://thebloom.news/dragonfly-nasas-future-mission-to-titan/conf 50%
  7. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  8. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 36%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z35.6%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 38.4% → 35.6%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.4%-5.8pp
Network propagation: 44.2% → 38.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z44.2%-11.5pp
Network propagation: 55.7% → 44.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z55.7%-19.5pp
Network propagation: 75.2% → 55.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z75.2%+32.1pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.752 blend=0.752 LLR=1.386 κ=0.86 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.1%-8.1pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 43.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-13.8pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.234
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.204
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.650+0.174
prereq229_038
Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdictionDave Blundin
22.7%0.6500.050-0.166
prereq242_056
AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just piAlex Wissner-Gross
25.0%0.6500.050-0.162

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_026
Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Dara Khosrowshahi
45.7%0.6000.050-0.219
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.089
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.088
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.079
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.068

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (303)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_014The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_021No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.Geopolitics
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_047At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.AI/Hardware
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
prereqSEM_022FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.AI/Architecture
prereq232_003AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size.Labor/Jobs
prereq231_050New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Macro/Economy
prereqSEM_001Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections.AI/Compute
prereq231_021Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Consumer
prereq230_011Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Markets/Stocks
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq236_048Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldMacro/Economy
prereq238_064AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep troubleLabor/Jobs
prereq241_018Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Energy
prereq231_041Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years.Labor/Jobs
prereq231_044Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Macro/Economy
prereq240_060Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into moviesMedia/Ads
prereq241_007Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)AI
prereq235_047AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).Geopolitics
prereq233_001Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Labor/Jobs
prereq233_002Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Education
prereq231_011The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Geopolitics
prereq240_044College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingEducation
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq233_017Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Labor/Jobs
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq236_026College bankruptcy rate will skyrocketEducation
prereq237_004Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Consumer
prereq242_022Personal garages at home will disappearReal Estate
prereq238_055Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Macro/Economy
prereq242_013Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Auto/Transport
prereq234_02380% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearLabor/Jobs
prereq241_059Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsEnergy
prereq232_017AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.AI
prereq240_043CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsLabor/Jobs
prereq241_044Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEnergy
prereq230_013There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.Macro/Economy
prereq230_025The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.AI
prereq238_049Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Auto/Transport
prereq247_039Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% rightCrypto
prereq236_047New emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingMacro/Economy
prereq232_041PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Geopolitics
prereq231_034Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive.Energy
prereq232_052Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.Macro/Economy
prereq243_046When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyConsumer
prereq243_042Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardConsumer
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq243_040Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryConsumer
prereq243_032Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Markets/Stocks
prereq243_029Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsConsumer
prereq242_049W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateMacro/Economy
prereq242_033Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Labor/Jobs
prereq242_032AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near termLabor/Jobs
prereq242_024Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values upReal Estate
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI
prereq242_019EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionAuto/Transport
prereq234_010Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soonDefense
prereq242_008Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedEnergy
prereq234_020AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030AI
prereq230_019The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.Markets/Stocks
prereq234_035Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionGeopolitics
prereq241_063America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyGeopolitics
prereq234_039Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityReal Estate
prereq241_048AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEducation
prereq241_02310% of US electricity will be used by data centersEnergy
prereq248_030FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.Geopolitics
prereq235_004Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_016ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.AI
prereq235_012Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_013Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_017OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.Markets/Stocks
prereq241_0201 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEnergy
prereq248_015Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_023Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Energy
prereq247_060Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseAI
prereq247_059African nations will be impacted least by AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq247_051Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robotsEnergy
prereq235_036AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Media/Ads
prereq241_010Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesMacro/Economy
prereq241_009Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AILabor/Jobs
prereq235_044AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap.Markets/Stocks
prereq236_004Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenAI
prereq236_006AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayMacro/Economy
prereq230_037Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.Consumer
prereq236_012An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksGeopolitics
prereq236_013Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Geopolitics
prereq247_047Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Energy
prereq236_016College premium is quickly evaporatingEducation
prereq236_017Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyMacro/Economy
prereq236_024Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureReal Estate
prereq236_028AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyConsumer
prereq236_027Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upMacro/Economy
prereq236_031Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersMacro/Economy
prereq241_003Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetAI
prereq236_035Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsLabor/Jobs
prereq241_001We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIAI
prereq236_041Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AILabor/Jobs
prereq240_049Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobsLabor/Jobs
prereq230_041Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.AI
prereq236_046Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkMacro/Economy
prereq230_044Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Geopolitics
prereq240_022All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollarsMarkets/Stocks
prereq238_065Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq230_047Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist.Labor/Jobs
prereq238_062Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Labor/Jobs
prereq238_061Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Macro/Economy
prereq230_049Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.Markets/Stocks
prereq238_029White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminentlyLabor/Jobs
prereq238_054Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Macro/Economy
prereq238_048US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Geopolitics
prereq231_006Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.Macro/Economy
prereq247_032Full cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq231_008AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.AI
prereq247_025Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than beforeGeopolitics
prereq247_020Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentLabor/Jobs
prereq246_046Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Real Estate
prereq231_020Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in).Consumer
prereq231_022Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.Consumer
prereq230_005Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.AI
prereq231_028Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.Macro/Economy
prereq231_029Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Other
prereq231_030US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Energy
prereq231_033Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Space
prereq231_036Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Space
prereq231_038TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.AI
prereq246_045Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Macro/Economy
prereq248_035Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_052Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever.Macro/Economy
prereq232_004Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_006YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Media/Ads
prereq230_010Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_019AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.AI
prereq230_012Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_026World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Labor/Jobs
prereq244_037Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workLabor/Jobs
prereq244_033Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failMarkets/Stocks
prereq244_022Automation will typically augment work rather than replace itLabor/Jobs
prereq244_021AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansMedia/Ads
prereq232_050Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.AI
prereq242_02560% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parksReal Estate
prereq229_025Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Robotics
prereq230_017Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Auto/Transport
prereq230_050One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_023US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance.Macro/Economy
prereq231_024Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.AI
prereq231_048Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.AI
prereq232_007TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.Media/Ads
prereq232_015AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.AI
prereq232_020Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Geopolitics
prereq232_023AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.AI
prereq232_036AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Biotech/Longevity
prereq234_002Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingAI
prereq234_008Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loopLabor/Jobs
prereq234_022Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindLabor/Jobs
prereq235_001Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.AI
prereq235_009Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Defense
prereq235_011PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_021Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Auto/Transport
prereq235_025Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_026Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Media/Ads
prereq235_034Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.Consumer
prereq236_011Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionGeopolitics
prereq236_015Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterLabor/Jobs
prereq236_040CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationLabor/Jobs
prereq236_044Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveEducation
prereq236_050Poverty level around $25K per person going forwardMacro/Economy
prereq237_010In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Crypto
prereq237_017The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.Markets/Stocks
prereq238_019Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automatedLabor/Jobs
prereq238_046xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleEnergy
prereq238_053Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normMacro/Economy
prereq238_067US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocationEnergy
prereq240_002Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIAMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_007Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIAGeopolitics
prereq240_009Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMCGeopolitics
prereq240_011NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being flooredMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_026Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companyMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_055Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from AmazonMarkets/Stocks
prereq242_011New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsAI
prereq242_016TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itAuto/Transport
prereq242_029Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesLabor/Jobs
prereq242_036Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compressesMarkets/Stocks
prereq244_007Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsReal Estate
prereq244_012Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointMarkets/Stocks
prereq244_024Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upLabor/Jobs
prereq246_043Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Space
prereq247_018First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionMacro/Economy
prereq247_022Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesLabor/Jobs
prereq247_049Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsEnergy
prereq247_031Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Biotech/Longevity
prereq240_032PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAI
prereq240_039Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularityLabor/Jobs
prereq237_008App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.Consumer
prereq237_007Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.AI
prereq240_051After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstLabor/Jobs
prereq230_026The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Consumer
prereq240_059AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsMacro/Economy
prereq236_032AI has chance of fixing poverty globallyMacro/Economy
prereq235_045Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Consumer
prereq235_041Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_039AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Geopolitics
prereq241_042Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceGeopolitics
prereq234_037Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsGeopolitics
prereq234_013Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Markets/Stocks
prereq248_022Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Markets/Stocks
prereq234_001India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineGeopolitics
prereq229_003Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Robotics
prereq242_028AI could automate 25% of US work hoursLabor/Jobs
prereq242_034AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Markets/Stocks
prereq232_056Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.AI
prereq232_054SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.AI
prereq230_008AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.AI
prereq232_039150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Biotech/Longevity
prereq244_025Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceLabor/Jobs
prereq232_035Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_029Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Labor/Jobs
prereq245_038People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Consumer
prereq246_011Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.AI
prereq232_016Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.AI
prereq232_012US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.Geopolitics
prereq232_005Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_002Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.AI
prereq232_001Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.AI
prereq229_032Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.AI
prereq231_047Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.AI
prereq231_017A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.AI
prereq247_024Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AILabor/Jobs
prereq231_010China has peaked and is going to be on descent.Geopolitics
prereq231_007AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.AI
prereq230_038AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.AI
prereq238_042Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesConsumer
prereq238_051If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Markets/Stocks
prereq247_052AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterMacro/Economy
prereq238_059Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdMacro/Economy
prereq238_006Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Labor/Jobs
prereq237_022Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.AI
prereq238_063Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatLabor/Jobs
prereq237_021Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously.Crypto
prereq237_014Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Labor/Jobs
prereq238_066Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsEnergy
prereq238_070Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)AI
prereq230_031We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.AI
prereq230_029Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.AI
prereq237_013Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Macro/Economy
prereq230_028Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.AI
prereq230_007Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Robotics
prereq240_017Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutEnergy
prereq238_036Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisersMedia/Ads
prereq232_037Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Space
prereq247_005Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_015For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Labor/Jobs
prereq242_047Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq242_048FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidenceBiotech/Longevity
prereq233_011Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Education
prereq242_055Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsMarkets/Stocks
prereq233_006Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.AI
prereq233_003Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.Education
prereq232_058Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.AI
prereq247_017Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyMacro/Economy
prereq247_019AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractMacro/Economy
prereq247_053AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using itCrypto
prereq238_069The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsGeopolitics
prereq236_043Universities will become largest incubators on the planetEducation
prereq245_028Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBiotech/Longevity
prereq248_002LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Space
prereq236_039Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersEnergy
prereq230_045GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.Macro/Economy
prereq230_039Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Education
prereq235_043Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Defense
prereq232_011Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.AI
prereq235_018Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_051Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmakingConsumer
prereq234_043Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueEducation
prereq234_04150% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsOther
prereq234_038Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityReal Estate
prereq246_018Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Energy
prereq246_041Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Energy
prereq234_011Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseDefense
prereq248_026Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Other
prereq234_009Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyDefense
prereq234_003Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAI
prereq230_032Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Geopolitics
prereq247_054Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Real Estate
prereq231_019Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Other
prereq230_023Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Biotech/Longevity
prereq233_018Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Education
prereq233_012AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.AI
prereq238_028Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Markets/Stocks
prereq240_012Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAI
prereq238_033Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Markets/Stocks
prereq233_019Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Education
prereq236_038Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesEducation
prereq247_040AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with BitcoinCrypto
prereq242_056AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesMacro/Economy
prereq229_038Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).Macro/Economy
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (6)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqCOD_SPC_005NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 windowSpace
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq244_026Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Labor/Jobs
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-07-31NASA Dragonfly launch window on Falcon Heavypending

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timelinecorroboratespending2026-04-30
0.900codex_research_packNASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedulecorroboratespending2025-09-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "this is Dragonfly... Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.",
  "to_year": 2034,
  "verbatim": "this is Dragonfly. So this is a nuclearpowered octicopter going to Saturn's moon Titan. Arrives in 2034 searching for life basically.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2034,
  "timeframe": "2034",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA Dragonfly enters full system integration phase",
      "source": "https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/readying-for-integration-test-nasa-adapts-dragonfly-for-long-descent-thick-air-of-titan/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA APL announces start of full spacecraft integration testing for Dragonfly, confirming launch readiness trajectory"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly $3.35B program-cost or schedule risk materializes (potential delay/scope event)",
      "source": "https://dronexl.co/2026/03/05/nasa-dragonfly-enters-full-assembly-phase/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA OIG, GAO, or Congressional testimony flags Dragonfly cost overrun beyond $3.35B baseline OR schedule slip past July 2028 launch period"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "229_032",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "229_038",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_025",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly launch on SpaceX Falcon Heavy in July 2028 launch window",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-07-25",
        "from": "2028-07-05"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX Falcon Heavy successfully launches Dragonfly on Titan trajectory within published July 5-25, 2028 launch period"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "229_003",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
      "status": "pending"
... (truncated)