App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.

App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | I don't want to have to go to app stores anymore and download apps. You have my data. Build me the apps I need when I need them.

I don't want to have to go to app stores anymore and download apps. You have my data. Build me the apps I need when I need them.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-Other",
  "context": "I'd go anywhere else that does that, right? I don't want to have to go to app stores anymore and download apps. You have my data. Build me the apps I need when I need them. And so, other companies will go for it.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I don't want to have to go to app stores anymore and download apps. You have my data. Build me the apps I need when I need them.",
  "conv_cues": "I don't want to have to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple cuts App Store fees to 15% specifically for AI-powered apps — pricing pressure response to platform-bypass risk",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "source_url": "https://www.strataigize.com/blog/apple-app-store-ai-commission-reduction-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major app-store policy change explicitly tied to AI app distribution economics"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Apple cracks down on AI 'vibe coding' apps (Replit, Vibecode) — existing app-store rules conflict with on-demand generation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/21/apples-cal-ai-crackdown-signals-its-still-policing-the-app-store/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-21",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-21",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major app store enforcement action targeting on-the-fly code-generation/runtime apps citing 2.5.2 dynamic-code rules"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First major OS (iOS, Android, ChromeOS) ships system-level on-device AI capable of generating U
... (truncated)