Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Prediction text
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Already reached
Key catalyst: Already reached
Watch events: Nvidia quarterly market-cap milestones; AI-chip TAM disclosures
Resolution evidence
Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.07943,
"inside_posterior": 0.92057,
"validation_notes": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.92057,
"resolution_evidence": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.950 | -0.013 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | +0.211 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.198 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.175 |
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.169 |
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.150 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (2)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
Dependents (246)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_047 | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | SEM_020 | Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. | Semis | — |
| prereq | SEM_026 | Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| prereq | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_023 | No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. | Semis/Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| prereq | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_039 | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 233_007 | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Education | — |
| prereq | SEM_033 | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | AI/Physics | — |
| prereq | 241_053 | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_011 | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_048 | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_026 | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_055 | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 246_037 | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_029 | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_043 | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 233_005 | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_012 | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_021 | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 234_046 | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_006 | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_030 | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_046 | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_008 | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_052 | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_051 | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_025 | Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | 248_046 | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_050 | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_029 | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_036 | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_014 | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_042 | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_003 | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_010 | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_023 | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_016 | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_048 | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_050 | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_021 | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_005 | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_015 | Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 241_045 | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_004 | Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| prereq | 242_010 | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_053 | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_017 | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_045 | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_053 | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_017 | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 237_006 | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_011 | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_015 | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_019 | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_029 | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 241_008 | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_013 | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_022 | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_024 | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_004 | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_009 | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_028 | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_006 | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_043 | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_050 | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_021 | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | AI/China | — |
| prereq | 248_039 | Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_020 | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_009 | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_001 | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_011 | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_057 | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_003 | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_044 | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_054 | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_025 | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_016 | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_008 | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 237_030 | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_021 | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_002 | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_027 | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Other | — |
| prereq | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_037 | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 235_015 | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_004 | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_010 | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_018 | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_015 | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_040 | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_003 | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_026 | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_048 | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$5T market cap",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap late 2025 — first company ever at that valuation — underpinned by sheer silicon volume for AI infrastructure.",
"to_year": 2025,
"conv_cues": "became; world's first",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2025,
"timeframe": "late 2025",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-05-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-08-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2025-12-29",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "230_004",
"expected_date": "2026-07-19",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "229_026",
"expected_date": "2027-02-13",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "230_003",
"expected_date": "2027-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "230_006",
"expected_date": "2027-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "229_038",
"expected_date": "2028-01-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 6,
"source_id": "230_005",
"expected_date": "2028-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "NVIDIA",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"granularity": "YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.047792+00:00",
"source_refs": "5, 7, 17",
"target_date": "2025-10-15
... (truncated)