← Cockpit
SEM_011predictionCapital MarketsNVIDIA

Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

Prior probability
99.0%
Current probability
85.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 246
Tickers exposed
30

Prediction text

Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Already reached

Key catalyst: Already reached

Watch events: Nvidia quarterly market-cap milestones; AI-chip TAM disclosures

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.808
Brier
0.0128
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 0
of 8 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 99%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 85.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 86%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z85.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 86.7% → 85.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z86.7%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 88.8% → 86.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z88.8%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 92.1% → 88.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z92.1%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 96.0% → 92.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z96.0%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 99.0% → 96.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+7.9pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.921
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.07943,
  "inside_posterior": 0.92057,
  "validation_notes": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.92057,
  "resolution_evidence": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.950-0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050+0.211
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050+0.198
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050+0.175
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050+0.169
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050+0.150

Ticker exposure

30 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALABAMBAARMASMLCEVACRWVIRENMUNBISNVDASITMTSMQCOMAMDANETMRVLNXPIATEYYAVGOCSCODELLSIEGYAMATLNVGY

Adverse (2)

AMDINTC

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)

Dependents (246)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_072Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 daysAI
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq246_047Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.AI
prereq230_014The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereq232_021No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.Geopolitics
prereqSEM_020Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity.Semis
prereqSEM_026Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_022FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.AI/Architecture
prereq231_031OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.Markets/Stocks
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_003AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size.Labor/Jobs
prereq246_005OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_023No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.Semis/Markets
prereqSEM_001Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections.AI/Compute
prereq231_050New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Macro/Economy
prereq238_023Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)AI
prereq231_039Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.AI
prereq231_041Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_006The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.AI
prereq238_064AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep troubleLabor/Jobs
prereq230_040AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.AI
prereq230_013There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.Macro/Economy
prereq233_007In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform.Education
prereqSEM_033AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).AI/Physics
prereq241_053AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water coolingAI
prereq248_011Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year.AI
prereq230_048Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms.AI
prereq235_047AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).Geopolitics
prereq231_026Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.AI
prereq231_034Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive.Energy
prereq247_055Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commonAI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_060Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into moviesMedia/Ads
prereq246_03750% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation).AI
prereq246_029Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.AI
prereq232_043Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_039Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% rightCrypto
prereq233_005Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.AI
prereq230_010Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.Markets/Stocks
prereq248_015Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_013Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.AI
prereq232_050Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.AI
prereq232_052Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.Macro/Economy
prereq230_012Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq248_012AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.AI
prereq230_019The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.Markets/Stocks
prereq234_010Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soonDefense
prereq234_015Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 monthsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_024Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_060Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseAI
prereq234_021OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027AI
prereq234_035Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionGeopolitics
prereq234_039Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityReal Estate
prereq234_046AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humansAI
prereq247_051Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robotsEnergy
prereq230_037Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.Consumer
prereq235_004Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_005AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.AI
prereq235_006By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.AI
prereq235_007AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.Geopolitics
prereq247_030GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillionsAI
prereq235_013Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days.Markets/Stocks
prereq247_025Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than beforeGeopolitics
prereq235_017OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.Markets/Stocks
prereq230_041Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.AI
prereq230_046OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public.AI
prereq247_020Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentLabor/Jobs
prereq247_008Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following yearAI
prereq230_047Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_044AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap.Markets/Stocks
prereq236_004Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenAI
prereq236_017Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyMacro/Economy
prereq236_041Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AILabor/Jobs
prereq230_049Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.Markets/Stocks
prereq246_052Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use.AI
prereq246_051GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos.AI
prereqSEM_025Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.Capital Markets
prereq248_046Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.Space
prereq246_050Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release.AI
prereq237_029AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.AI
prereq246_006OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).Markets/Stocks
prereq231_006Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.Macro/Economy
prereq238_029White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminentlyLabor/Jobs
prereq244_036Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing)AI
prereq242_049W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateMacro/Economy
prereq238_061Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Macro/Economy
prereq238_062Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Labor/Jobs
prereq238_065Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq231_014Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.AI
prereq242_042Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to investAI
prereq248_035Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.Markets/Stocks
prereq240_003NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volumeAI
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI
prereq242_035S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq248_030FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.Geopolitics
prereq240_010NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar yearMarkets/Stocks
prereq248_023Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.AI
prereq240_016Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)AI
prereq231_020Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in).Consumer
prereq240_022All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollarsMarkets/Stocks
prereq231_022Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.Consumer
prereq240_028Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsSpace
prereq230_005Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.AI
prereq240_048Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this yearLabor/Jobs
prereq240_049Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobsLabor/Jobs
prereq240_050US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a jobLabor/Jobs
prereq248_021Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.Space
prereq242_033Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Labor/Jobs
prereq241_003Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetAI
prereq241_0052026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this yearAI
prereq231_028Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.Macro/Economy
prereq241_015Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioningMarkets/Stocks
prereq241_045Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to winAI
prereq242_004Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitudeMarkets/Stocks
prereq242_008Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedEnergy
prereq242_010By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physicsAI
prereq231_029Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Other
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq242_024Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values upReal Estate
prereq242_032AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near termLabor/Jobs
prereq231_038TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.AI
prereq231_052Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever.Macro/Economy
prereq231_053Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_017Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_004Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_016ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.AI
prereqSEM_035World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).AI/Cognition
prereq230_017Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Auto/Transport
prereq230_050One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_023US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance.Macro/Economy
prereq231_024Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.AI
prereq231_045Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash.AI
prereq232_007TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.Media/Ads
prereq232_015AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.AI
prereq232_053To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.AI
prereq232_060We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.AI
prereq233_014Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.Biotech/Longevity
prereq234_002Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingAI
prereq234_008Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loopLabor/Jobs
prereq234_017OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeksAI
prereq235_001Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.AI
prereq235_009Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Defense
prereq235_025Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_026Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Media/Ads
prereq235_034Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.Consumer
prereq235_042OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_046Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely.Geopolitics
prereq237_006Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits.AI
prereq237_010In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Crypto
prereq237_011AI agents will have voices in the near future.AI
prereq237_015There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization.Labor/Jobs
prereq237_017The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.Markets/Stocks
prereq238_019Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automatedLabor/Jobs
prereq238_067US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocationEnergy
prereq240_002Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIAMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_007Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIAGeopolitics
prereq240_009Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMCGeopolitics
prereq240_011NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being flooredMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_019Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a yearAI
prereq240_026Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companyMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_029ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildoutAI
prereq240_041Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next yearAI
prereq240_055Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from AmazonMarkets/Stocks
prereq241_008AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possibleAI
prereq241_013Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effectsAI
prereq242_011New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsAI
prereq242_016TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itAuto/Transport
prereq242_02560% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parksReal Estate
prereq242_036Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compressesMarkets/Stocks
prereq246_022Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).AI
prereq246_024Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).AI
prereq246_043Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Space
prereq247_004Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversionsAI
prereq247_009Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026AI
prereq247_010Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectoryAI
prereq247_018First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionMacro/Economy
prereq247_028Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departingAI
prereq248_006The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year.AI
prereq248_043Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months.Robotics
prereq248_050Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters.AI
prereqSEM_021Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.AI/China
prereq248_039Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space.AI
prereq237_022Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.AI
prereq237_021Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously.Crypto
prereq237_020The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local.AI
prereq237_009ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.AI
prereq237_008App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.Consumer
prereq231_001Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.AI
prereq235_041Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.Markets/Stocks
prereq229_026By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.Robotics
prereq247_011OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billionAI
prereq247_024Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AILabor/Jobs
prereq235_008Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.AI
prereq247_052AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterMacro/Economy
prereq247_057Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parametersAI
prereq234_019Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeksAI
prereq230_003AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.AI
prereq234_013Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Markets/Stocks
prereq232_044There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.AI
prereq232_035Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_012US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.Geopolitics
prereq231_054Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.Labor/Jobs
prereq231_025Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).AI
prereq231_017A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.AI
prereq231_016Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.AI
prereq238_070Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)AI
prereq238_051If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Markets/Stocks
prereq246_011Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.AI
prereq234_051Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmakingConsumer
prereq247_053AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using itCrypto
prereq234_025Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robotsRobotics
prereq240_008NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthsGeopolitics
prereq237_030Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus.AI
prereq242_048FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidenceBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_021GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).AI
prereq247_002Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profitAI
prereq230_045GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.Macro/Economy
prereq248_027Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.Other
prereq245_028Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_007Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Robotics
prereq235_037Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.AI
prereq235_018Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Labor/Jobs
prereq238_036Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisersMedia/Ads
prereq235_015GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.AI
prereq230_004We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.AI
prereq235_010Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.AI
prereq240_058OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plansAI
prereq234_018GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeksAI
prereq231_015Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.AI
prereq247_003Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPOAI
prereq238_040Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OSAI
prereq231_003Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.AI
prereq233_008Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.Education
prereq247_026Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agentsAI
prereq237_019Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.AI
prereq248_048AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm.AI
prereq248_010AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).AI
prereq231_002Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.AI
prereq231_018Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.AI
prereq247_040AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with BitcoinCrypto
prereq229_038Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).Macro/Economy
prereq242_056AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesMacro/Economy
prereqSEM_03215% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.AI/Mathematics

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importNvidia crossed $5T market cap Oct-Nov 2025 per Bloomberg/Reuters. First company ever to reach that threshold.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.708polymarketWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?0%mentionspending2026-04-16
0.703polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?71%mentionspending2025-11-11
0.701polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?91%mentionspending2025-10-10
0.699polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?100%mentionspending2026-03-02
0.696polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?100%mentionspending2026-04-16
0.674gdelt10729180mentionspending2026-04-30
0.674edgar_8kNVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)mentionspending2026-05-08
0.668manifoldWill Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?mentionspending2026-05-01
0.659gdeltboersengang voraus angriff auf nvidia aktie ki spezialist cerebras wagt neuen ipo anlauf an der nasdaq 00 15640811mentionspending2026-04-30
0.652gdeltamazon chipmaker sell trainium ai chips nvidia 2026 4mentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$5T market cap",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Nvidia crossed $5T market cap late 2025 — first company ever at that valuation — underpinned by sheer silicon volume for AI infrastructure.",
  "to_year": 2025,
  "conv_cues": "became; world's first",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "late 2025",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-08-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-29",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "230_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "229_026",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "230_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "230_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "229_038",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "230_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "NVIDIA",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.047792+00:00",
  "source_refs": "5, 7, 17",
  "target_date": "2025-10-15
... (truncated)