Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | Anthropic overtakes Open AI in terms of total ARR. Anthropics at 30 billion versus Open AI at 24 to 25 billion. | Already validated
Key catalyst: Already validated
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
Anthropic overtakes Open AI in terms of total ARR. Anthropics at 30 billion versus Open AI at 24 to 25 billion.
Resolution evidence
Exact figures match: Anthropic $30B, OpenAI $24-25B, reported April 7 2026 simultaneously with the podcast episode.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.17125,
"inside_posterior": 0.82875,
"validation_notes": "Exact figures match: Anthropic $30B, OpenAI $24-25B, reported April 7 2026 simultaneously with the podcast episode.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.82875,
"resolution_evidence": "Exact figures match: Anthropic $30B, OpenAI $24-25B, reported April 7 2026 simultaneously with the podcast episode.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.141 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.122 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.121 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.097 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.077 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.217 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.182 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.152 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | +0.144 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.138 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Exact figures match: Anthropic $30B, OpenAI $24-25B, reported April 7 2026 simultaneously with the podcast episode. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.780 | manifold | Will Anthropic’s valuation exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? | 39% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.770 | manifold | Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026? | 53% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.765 | manifold | When will Anthropic or OpenAI offer a $1,000/month AI subscription? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.678 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.97.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.677 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.100.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.676 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.79.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-02-07 |
| 0.673 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.96.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-16 |
| 0.670 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.84.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-02-25 |
| 0.666 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.75.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-11-24 |
| 0.665 | github_release | anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.95.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-14 |
Raw metadata
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... (truncated)