GEN
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Bull scenarios
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Adverse scenarios
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Other links
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Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 270 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Bull scenarios (0)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
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Adverse scenarios (270)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEM_005 | AI/Infrastructure | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | Sam Altman | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_047 | AI/Hardware | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | Jimmy Ba | 70.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_022 | AI/Architecture | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | Dave Blundin | 64.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_011 | AI | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | Dave Blundin | 60.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_003 | Labor/Jobs | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Dave Blundin | 59.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_031 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Peter Diamandis | 58.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_002 | AI | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 55.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_033 | AI/Physics | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 55.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_005 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Peter Diamandis | 55.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_001 | AI/Compute | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 54.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_041 | Labor/Jobs | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_048 | AI | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | Peter Diamandis | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_029 | AI | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_043 | Labor/Jobs | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_060 | Media/Ads | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Peter Diamandis | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_039 | Crypto | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_007 | Education | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Joe Liemandt | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_034 | Energy | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_050 | Macro/Economy | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Dave Blundin | 53.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_026 | AI | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | Dave Blundin | 52.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_013 | Macro/Economy | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Dave Blundin | 52.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_005 | AI | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | Dave Blundin | 51.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_064 | Labor/Jobs | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Dave Blundin | 50.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_047 | Geopolitics | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Dave Blundin | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_040 | AI | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | Peter Diamandis | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_060 | AI | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_005 | AI | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_030 | AI | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_021 | AI | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_048 | Labor/Jobs | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_055 | AI | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | Dave Blundin | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_020 | Labor/Jobs | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Dave Blundin | 49.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_003 | AI | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_037 | Consumer | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_047 | Labor/Jobs | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_049 | Markets/Stocks | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_046 | Space | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_006 | Macro/Economy | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_014 | AI | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_030 | Geopolitics | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_023 | AI | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_020 | Consumer | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_022 | Consumer | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_028 | Macro/Economy | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_052 | Macro/Economy | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_053 | Labor/Jobs | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_004 | Labor/Jobs | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_012 | AI | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_051 | Energy | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_010 | Defense | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_025 | Geopolitics | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_008 | AI | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_035 | Geopolitics | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_039 | Real Estate | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_052 | AI | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_051 | AI | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_050 | AI | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_006 | AI | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_013 | Markets/Stocks | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_036 | AI | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_044 | Markets/Stocks | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_004 | AI | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_042 | AI | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_035 | Markets/Stocks | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_024 | Real Estate | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_010 | AI | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_045 | AI | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | Eric Schmidt | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_005 | AI | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_028 | Space | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_062 | Labor/Jobs | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_016 | AI | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_010 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_049 | Labor/Jobs | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Dave Blundin | 49.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_033 | Labor/Jobs | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Dave Blundin | 49.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_005 | AI | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_023 | AI | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | Dave Blundin | 49.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_050 | Labor/Jobs | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Dave Blundin | 48.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_013 | AI | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 48.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_016 | AI | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | Dave Blundin | 48.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_050 | AI | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_029 | Other | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_035 | AI | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_018 | Auto/Transport | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_017 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Peter Diamandis | 48.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_006 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_021 | Auto/Transport | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Dave Blundin | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 243_006 | Auto/Transport | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_021 | Space | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Dave Blundin | 48.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_006 | AI | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | Peter Diamandis | 48.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_017 | Labor/Jobs | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Dave Blundin | 47.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_003 | AI | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | Eric Schmidt | 47.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_036 | Space | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 47.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_035 | Markets/Stocks | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Dave Blundin | 47.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_019 | Markets/Stocks | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Dave Blundin | 47.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_055 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Dave Blundin | 46.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_029 | Labor/Jobs | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Dave Blundin | 46.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_046 | AI | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | Dave Blundin | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_029 | AI | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | Dave Blundin | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_010 | Markets/Stocks | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Dave Blundin | 46.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_052 | Macro/Economy | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Peter Diamandis | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_004 | Labor/Jobs | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Dave Blundin | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_030 | AI | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_052 | AI | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_020 | AI | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_041 | AI | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_041 | Labor/Jobs | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_065 | Labor/Jobs | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_032 | Labor/Jobs | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_029 | AI | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_018 | Macro/Economy | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_011 | AI | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_017 | Auto/Transport | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_043 | Space | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_024 | AI | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_006 | AI | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_026 | Media/Ads | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_053 | AI | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | Ben Horowitz | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_016 | Auto/Transport | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_031 | Auto/Transport | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Dave Blundin | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_001 | AI | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 45.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_009 | AI | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_025 | Markets/Stocks | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Dave Blundin | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_035 | AI/Cognition | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | Eric Schmidt | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_013 | AI | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | Eric Schmidt | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_021 | AI/China | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_009 | Defense | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_024 | AI | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_022 | AI | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_034 | Consumer | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_015 | Labor/Jobs | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Alex Finn | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_017 | Markets/Stocks | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Alex Finn | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_025 | Real Estate | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_019 | AI | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_045 | AI | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_007 | Media/Ads | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_015 | AI | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_023 | Macro/Economy | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_014 | Biotech/Longevity | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_050 | Markets/Stocks | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_050 | AI | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_009 | Geopolitics | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_028 | AI | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_004 | AI | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_002 | AI | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_041 | AI | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_022 | Markets/Stocks | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_007 | Geopolitics | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_015 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Peter Diamandis | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_010 | AI | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 45.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_019 | Labor/Jobs | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_042 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Peter Diamandis | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_017 | Auto/Transport | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_059 | Auto/Transport | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_055 | AI | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | Dave Blundin | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_008 | Labor/Jobs | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Salim Ismail | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_060 | AI | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 44.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_037 | Auto/Transport | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Salim Ismail | 44.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_007 | AI | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | Eric Schmidt | 44.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_038 | AI | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | Dave Blundin | 44.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_022 | AI | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | Alex Finn | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_012 | Geopolitics | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Ben Horowitz | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_040 | Robotics | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Dave Blundin | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_011 | AI | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | Alex Finn | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_008 | AI | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | Eric Schmidt | 43.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_046 | AI | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | Dave Blundin | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_046 | AI | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | Dave Blundin | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_010 | Crypto | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Alex Finn | 43.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_053 | AI | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Dave Blundin | 42.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_043 | Robotics | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_013 | Markets/Stocks | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Dave Blundin | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_044 | AI | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | Dave Blundin | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_050 | Robotics | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Dave Blundin | 42.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_037 | AI | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_054 | Labor/Jobs | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_017 | AI | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_051 | Markets/Stocks | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_070 | AI | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_003 | AI | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_011 | AI | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_044 | AI | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_026 | Markets/Stocks | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_052 | Macro/Economy | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Dave Blundin | 41.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_046 | Geopolitics | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Dave Blundin | 41.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_011 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_036 | Markets/Stocks | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_002 | Markets/Stocks | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_011 | AI | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_016 | AI | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_025 | AI | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_020 | AI | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_009 | AI | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_001 | AI | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_024 | Labor/Jobs | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Dave Blundin | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_041 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Dave Blundin | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_008 | Consumer | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_048 | AI | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_017 | AI | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | OpenAI Codex Lead | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_067 | Energy | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Dave Blundin | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_040 | Auto/Transport | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Salim Ismail | 41.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_057 | AI | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_023 | AI | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | Dave Blundin | 40.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_006 | AI | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | Alex Finn | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_047 | AI | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_042 | AI | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | Brett Adcock | 40.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_021 | Crypto | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Alex Finn | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_008 | Energy | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Dave Blundin | 40.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_024 | Biotech/Longevity | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Dave Blundin | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_019 | AI | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_007 | Robotics | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_028 | Biotech/Longevity | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Ben Lamm | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_027 | Other | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Dave Blundin | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_045 | Macro/Economy | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_018 | Labor/Jobs | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_026 | Robotics | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Brett Adcock | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_012 | AI | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | Kevin Weil | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_014 | AI | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_035 | Markets/Stocks | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_058 | AI | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_053 | Crypto | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_010 | AI | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_018 | AI | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_021 | AI | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_002 | AI | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_004 | AI | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_030 | AI | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_051 | Consumer | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_015 | Auto/Transport | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Dara Khosrowshahi | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_034 | AI | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | Andrej Karpathy | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_040 | Biotech/Longevity | Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships | Ben Lamm | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_029 | Biotech/Longevity | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_007 | Geopolitics | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Dave Blundin | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_033 | AI | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | Dave Blundin | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_001 | AI | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | Unknown | 36.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_031 | Markets/Stocks | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_037 | AI | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_015 | AI | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_019 | AI | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_036 | Media/Ads | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Emad Mostaque | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_044 | AI | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_027 | AI | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_025 | Robotics | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_057 | Robotics | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Dave Blundin | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_032 | AI | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_071 | AI | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_038 | AI | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_057 | AI | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_043 | AI | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_031 | AI | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_004 | AI | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_003 | AI | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_003 | AI | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_026 | AI | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_023 | Macro/Economy | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Dave Blundin | 34.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_048 | AI | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_040 | AI | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_015 | AI | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_008 | Education | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Joe Liemandt | 32.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_010 | AI | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | Dave Blundin | 31.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_040 | Crypto | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Alex Wissner-Gross | 25.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Alex Wissner-Gross | 25.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_049 | AI | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 24.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Dave Blundin | 22.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_032 | AI/Mathematics | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 15.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |