AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term

AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | AI can do the job for 10%, soon to be 2% of the cost of the human

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AI can do the job for 10%, soon to be 2% of the cost of the human

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2% of human cost",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "AI can do the job for 10%, soon to be 2% of the cost of the human",
  "verbatim": "AI can do the job for 10%, soon to be 2% of the cost of the human",
  "conv_cues": "soon to be",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "timeframe": "near term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic Economic Index publishes job-by-job AI feasibility map",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/ai-job-losses-report-anthropic-research-great-recession-for-white-collar-workers/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/03/06/ai-job-losses-report-anthropic-research-great-recession-for-white-collar-workers/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-06",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-06",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publishes detailed map of which jobs AI can perform with feasibility scoring; Fortune coverage confirms"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Inference cost-per-million-tokens drops below $0.50 for GPT-4-class capability",
      "notes": "HIT — GPT-4-equiv now $0.40/1M tokens (50x decline). Inference economics support 'cost approaches electricity' thesis.",
      "source": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Stanford AI Index / NVIDIA AI Factories benchmark shows GPT-4-equivalent capability available at <$0.50/1M tokens (vs $20 in late 2022)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-driven layoffs cited in BLS Challenger report cross 100K cumulative in 2026",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2
... (truncated)