← Cockpit
240_036predictionEnergyAI-timing

TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
34.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2040-01-01 – 2040-11-30
Edges in / out
276 / 1
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric uh needs by 2040.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric uh needs by 2040.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 pending

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 34%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z34.3%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 35.8% → 34.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.8%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 38.5% → 35.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.5%-4.8pp
Network propagation: 43.3% → 38.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.3%-8.0pp
Network propagation: 51.3% → 43.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.3%-13.7pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 51.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.247
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.217
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.650+0.187
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050+0.164
prereq232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given cuDave Blundin
75.4%0.6500.050+0.155

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_029
Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will bDara Khosrowshahi
35.4%0.5500.050-0.137

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (276)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_014The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq232_021No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.Geopolitics
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_047At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.AI/Hardware
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
prereqSEM_022FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.AI/Architecture
prereq232_003AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size.Labor/Jobs
prereqSEM_001Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections.AI/Compute
prereq230_011Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Markets/Stocks
prereq231_021Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Consumer
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq247_034Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq231_050New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Macro/Economy
prereq230_013There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.Macro/Economy
prereq241_044Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEnergy
prereq233_001Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Labor/Jobs
prereq233_002Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Education
prereq235_047AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).Geopolitics
prereq234_02380% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearLabor/Jobs
prereq233_017Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Labor/Jobs
prereq238_055Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Macro/Economy
prereq231_041Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years.Labor/Jobs
prereq241_018Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Energy
prereq238_064AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep troubleLabor/Jobs
prereq240_060Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into moviesMedia/Ads
prereq231_011The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Geopolitics
prereq247_039Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% rightCrypto
prereq240_043CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsLabor/Jobs
prereq242_022Personal garages at home will disappearReal Estate
prereq240_044College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingEducation
prereq241_059Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsEnergy
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq231_034Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive.Energy
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq237_004Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Consumer
prereq236_048Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldMacro/Economy
prereq236_047New emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingMacro/Economy
prereq232_041PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Geopolitics
prereq236_026College bankruptcy rate will skyrocketEducation
prereq242_035S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_005Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.AI
prereq230_010Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.Markets/Stocks
prereq230_012Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_019The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.Markets/Stocks
prereq230_037Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.Consumer
prereq230_041Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.AI
prereq230_044Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Geopolitics
prereq230_047Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_049Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_006Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.Macro/Economy
prereq231_020Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in).Consumer
prereq231_022Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.Consumer
prereq231_028Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.Macro/Economy
prereq231_030US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Energy
prereq231_033Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Space
prereq231_038TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.AI
prereq231_052Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever.Macro/Economy
prereq232_004Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_006YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Media/Ads
prereq232_026World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Labor/Jobs
prereq232_052Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.Macro/Economy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq234_010Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soonDefense
prereq234_020AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030AI
prereq234_035Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionGeopolitics
prereq234_039Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityReal Estate
prereq235_004Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_012Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_013Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_017OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_036AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Media/Ads
prereq235_044AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap.Markets/Stocks
prereq236_004Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenAI
prereq236_006AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayMacro/Economy
prereq236_012An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksGeopolitics
prereq236_016College premium is quickly evaporatingEducation
prereq236_017Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyMacro/Economy
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq236_024Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureReal Estate
prereq236_027Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upMacro/Economy
prereq236_028AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyConsumer
prereq236_031Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersMacro/Economy
prereq236_035Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsLabor/Jobs
prereq236_041Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AILabor/Jobs
prereq236_046Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkMacro/Economy
prereq238_029White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminentlyLabor/Jobs
prereq238_048US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Geopolitics
prereq238_054Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Macro/Economy
prereq238_061Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Macro/Economy
prereq238_062Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Labor/Jobs
prereq238_065Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq240_022All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollarsMarkets/Stocks
prereq240_028Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsSpace
prereq240_049Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobsLabor/Jobs
prereq241_001We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIAI
prereq241_003Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetAI
prereq241_009Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AILabor/Jobs
prereq241_010Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesMacro/Economy
prereq241_0201 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEnergy
prereq241_02310% of US electricity will be used by data centersEnergy
prereq241_048AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEducation
prereq241_063America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyGeopolitics
prereq242_008Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedEnergy
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq242_024Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values upReal Estate
prereq242_032AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near termLabor/Jobs
prereq242_033Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Labor/Jobs
prereq242_049W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateMacro/Economy
prereq243_029Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsConsumer
prereq243_032Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Markets/Stocks
prereq243_040Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryConsumer
prereq243_042Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardConsumer
prereq243_046When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyConsumer
prereq244_018In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesAuto/Transport
prereq244_021AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansMedia/Ads
prereq244_022Automation will typically augment work rather than replace itLabor/Jobs
prereq244_023Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacementLabor/Jobs
prereq244_026Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Labor/Jobs
prereq244_033Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failMarkets/Stocks
prereq244_037Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workLabor/Jobs
prereq246_045Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Macro/Economy
prereq246_046Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Real Estate
prereq247_020Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentLabor/Jobs
prereq247_025Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than beforeGeopolitics
prereq247_032Full cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq247_047Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Energy
prereq247_051Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robotsEnergy
prereq247_059African nations will be impacted least by AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq247_060Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseAI
prereq248_015Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_016ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.AI
prereq248_030FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.Geopolitics
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI
prereq248_035Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.Markets/Stocks
prereq238_067US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocationEnergy
prereq235_025Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_026Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Media/Ads
prereq235_034Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.Consumer
prereq240_035Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035Energy
prereq232_015AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.AI
prereq236_015Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterLabor/Jobs
prereq244_007Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsReal Estate
prereq244_012Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointMarkets/Stocks
prereq232_007TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.Media/Ads
prereq236_050Poverty level around $25K per person going forwardMacro/Economy
prereq247_049Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsEnergy
prereq236_040CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationLabor/Jobs
prereq244_024Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upLabor/Jobs
prereq236_044Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveEducation
prereq231_023US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance.Macro/Economy
prereq240_055Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from AmazonMarkets/Stocks
prereq238_053Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normMacro/Economy
prereq238_019Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automatedLabor/Jobs
prereq246_043Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Space
prereq230_050One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_017The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_020Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Geopolitics
prereq247_018First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionMacro/Economy
prereq242_011New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsAI
prereq242_016TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itAuto/Transport
prereq230_017Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Auto/Transport
prereq242_02560% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parksReal Estate
prereq242_029Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesLabor/Jobs
prereq233_014Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.Biotech/Longevity
prereq235_011PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Markets/Stocks
prereq238_046xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleEnergy
prereq234_002Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingAI
prereq234_008Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loopLabor/Jobs
prereq247_022Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesLabor/Jobs
prereq240_002Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIAMarkets/Stocks
prereq234_022Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindLabor/Jobs
prereq240_007Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIAGeopolitics
prereq240_009Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMCGeopolitics
prereq237_010In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Crypto
prereq240_011NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being flooredMarkets/Stocks
prereq244_027Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasksLabor/Jobs
prereq235_001Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.AI
prereq242_036Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compressesMarkets/Stocks
prereq235_009Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Defense
prereq240_026Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companyMarkets/Stocks
prereq246_011Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.AI
prereq234_006Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solvedAI
prereq230_031We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.AI
prereq240_032PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAI
prereq242_028AI could automate 25% of US work hoursLabor/Jobs
prereq247_024Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AILabor/Jobs
prereq238_066Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsEnergy
prereq238_070Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)AI
prereq235_039AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Geopolitics
prereq235_041Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_022Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.AI
prereq237_008App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.Consumer
prereq235_045Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Consumer
prereq232_012US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.Geopolitics
prereq247_031Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_022Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Markets/Stocks
prereq230_028Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.AI
prereq241_042Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceGeopolitics
prereq230_027We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.AI
prereq230_026The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Consumer
prereq238_042Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesConsumer
prereq238_043A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years awayBiotech/Longevity
prereq238_063Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatLabor/Jobs
prereq232_035Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models.Markets/Stocks
prereq242_034AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Markets/Stocks
prereq237_021Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously.Crypto
prereq236_032AI has chance of fixing poverty globallyMacro/Economy
prereq232_039150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Biotech/Longevity
prereq244_025Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceLabor/Jobs
prereq247_052AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterMacro/Economy
prereq237_014Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_001India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineGeopolitics
prereq232_005Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_038AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.AI
prereq232_001Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.AI
prereq240_039Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularityLabor/Jobs
prereq231_046Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.AI
prereq245_038People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Consumer
prereq230_029Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.AI
prereq240_051After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstLabor/Jobs
prereq234_013Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Markets/Stocks
prereq240_059AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsMacro/Economy
prereq231_010China has peaked and is going to be on descent.Geopolitics
prereq238_051If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Markets/Stocks
prereq236_039Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersEnergy
prereq238_036Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisersMedia/Ads
prereq247_053AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using itCrypto
prereq247_054Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Real Estate
prereq245_028Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBiotech/Longevity
prereq238_069The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsGeopolitics
prereq240_017Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutEnergy
prereq246_018Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Energy
prereq246_041Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Energy
prereq246_042On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.AI
prereq230_023Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Biotech/Longevity
prereq230_045GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.Macro/Economy
prereq247_005Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_039Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Education
prereq247_017Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyMacro/Economy
prereq247_019AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractMacro/Economy
prereq230_032Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Geopolitics
prereq233_012AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.AI
prereq233_018Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Education
prereq234_009Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyDefense
prereq234_011Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseDefense
prereq233_011Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Education
prereq234_038Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityReal Estate
prereq234_04150% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsOther
prereq234_043Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueEducation
prereq234_051Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmakingConsumer
prereq242_047Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq242_048FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidenceBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_007Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Robotics
prereq235_018Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Labor/Jobs
prereq242_055Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsMarkets/Stocks
prereq235_043Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Defense
prereq233_003Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.Education
prereq232_048Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Space
prereq236_043Universities will become largest incubators on the planetEducation
prereq232_037Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Space
prereq236_038Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesEducation
prereq238_028Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Markets/Stocks
prereq233_019Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Education
prereq240_012Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAI
prereq232_024San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Macro/Economy
prereq238_033Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Markets/Stocks
prereq247_040AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with BitcoinCrypto
prereq242_056AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesMacro/Economy
prereq229_038Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).Macro/Economy
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_029Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentEnergy

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
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  "qty": "20% of Japan's electricity",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "TCO uh is restarting reactor number six. It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric uh needs by 2040.",
  "to_year": 2040,
  "verbatim": "It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric uh needs by 2040.",
  "conv_cues": "going to",
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  "timeframe": "By 2040",
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  "milestones": [
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      "label": "Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "230_012",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
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      "label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
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      "source_id": "229_038",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
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      "label": "Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "230_010",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "230_011",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-24",
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    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
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      "source_id": "230_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2030-06-20",
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      "expected_date": "2040-07-06",
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      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different",
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      "source_id": "244_029",
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      "observed_date": null
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  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
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  "display_date": "2040-07-06",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-21",
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  "domain_bucket": "Energy",
  "episode_title": "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
  "flag_repeated": false,
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  "ps_cluster_tags": [
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  "active_end_month": "2040-12",
  "months_from_today": 170,
  "active_start_month": "2040-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Energy → 11/2040",
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  "fl
... (truncated)