← Cockpit
230_027predictionAIAI-timing

We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
43.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓
  1. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  2. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.5%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 43.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 46.8% → 44.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.8%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.057
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.050
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050-0.042
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5000.050-0.037
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.500-0.025

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq236_019
Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably sAndrew Yang
44.0%0.6000.050-0.156
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.047
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.038
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.037
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.025

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.556polymarketWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?0%mentionspending2026-03-24

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.",
  "conv_cues": "we argue",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "now / ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "230_027",
      "expected_date": "2032-10-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "236_019",
      "expected_date": "2036-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "People will be on Mars within 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "239_009",
      "expected_date": "2036-08-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Moon base will exist in 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "239_008",
      "expected_date": "2036-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "232_047",
      "expected_date": "2037-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "240_036",
      "expected_date": "2040-07-06",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 230,
  "granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
  "target_date": "2030-06-15",
  "display_date": "2032-10-20",
  "episode_date": "2026-02-13",
  "parse_method": "RELATIVE fallback m
... (truncated)