We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.
Verbatim quote
And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.025 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably s — Andrew Yang | 44.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.156 |
| prereq | 239_009 People will be on Mars within 10 years — Elon Musk | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 239_009 | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.556 | polymarket | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-24 |
Raw metadata
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"context": "we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence.",
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"verbatim": "And we argue that we're now in the early stages of the intelligence revolution, which is a war on human attention, which right now is scarce. And we're fixing that with super intelligence. And the weapon this time around is the token.",
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},
{
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],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
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"episode_date": "2026-02-13",
"parse_method": "RELATIVE fallback m
... (truncated)