Moon base will exist in 10 years

Moon base will exist in 10 years | And then we'll have a base on the moon.

Watch events: Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

And then we'll have a base on the moon.

Beneficiaries (19)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "And then we'll have a base on the moon... And we'll have people on Mars.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "And then we'll have a base on the moon.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll have",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "by 2036 (within 10 years)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "230_026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "230_011",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis III crewed lunar surface landing (NASA-confirmed)",
      "source": "NASA Artemis program (early 2028 target as of 2025)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/artemis/",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2027-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms Artemis III mission with humans on lunar south pole; mission elapsed time >=24 hours surface stay; verified via NASA TV and Artemis program briefing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Chang'e-8 lunar south pole mission completes (precursor to ILRS construction)",
      "source": "Global Times CNSA chief designer interview",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1332711.shtml",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CNSA confirms successful Chang'e-8 mission completion at lunar south pole including ISRU and 3D-printing technology demonstrations"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "230_028",
      "expected_date": "2029-03-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "230_022",
      "expected_date": "2029-12-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "230_023",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First habitable element delivered to lunar surface (US or China)",
      "source": "NASA Artemis Base Camp concept + ILRS-1 through ILRS-5 (2031-2035)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/blogs/missions/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/",
      "expected_date": "2032-03-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date
... (truncated)