College premium is quickly evaporating

College premium is quickly evaporating | that's showing up in the numbers where the college premium is quickly evaporating.

that's showing up in the numbers where the college premium is quickly evaporating.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "that's showing up in the numbers where the college premium is quickly evaporating.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "that's showing up in the numbers where the college premium is quickly evaporating.",
  "conv_cues": "quickly evaporating",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Present/near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Top tech firms cut entry-level hiring by 50%",
      "source": "https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/11/02/no-college-degrees-arent-losing-their-value/ — Washington Monthly entry-level decline citation",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/11/02/no-college-degrees-arent-losing-their-value/",
      "expected_date": "2024-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2024-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Burning Glass / industry data shows ≥50% decline in new roles requiring <1 year experience at top tech firms 2019-2024"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Recent college graduate unemployment rate hits 4.8%",
      "source": "https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202514-are-young-college-graduates-losing-their-edge-in-the-job-market — Cleveland Fed on young grad job market edge",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202514-are-young-college-graduates-losing-their-edge-in-the-job-market",
      "expected_date": "2025-06-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BLS data shows unemployment rate for recent college graduates trending upward to ~4.8% (vs prior baseline)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Class of 2025 full-time job placement rate ≤30%",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/college-graduates-are-struggling-to-find-jobs-ai-is-partly-to-blame.html — CNBC on AI's role in graduate job struggles",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/college-graduates-are-struggling-to-find-jobs-ai-is-partly-to-blame.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-08-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Survey of 2025 college graduates shows ≤30% had secured a full-time job in their field within 2-3 months of graduation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Burning Glass shows 52% of class of 2023 in non-degree-required jobs after 1 year",
      "source": "https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/11/02/no-college-degrees-arent-losing-their-value/ — Washington Monthly Burning Glass citation",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/11/02/no-college-degrees-arent-losing-their-value/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Burning Glass Institute report finds ≥50% of recent graduates 1 year out are working in jobs that don't require a degree, signaling collapse of college job premium"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cur
... (truncated)