True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.
Predictor: Demis Hassabis
Prediction text
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else | DeepMind Gemini capability disclosures
Key catalyst: DeepMind Gemini capability disclosures
Watch events: DeepMind Gemini roadmap + benchmark releases; Hassabis public AGI timeline updates
Verbatim quote
First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else
Resolution evidence
Hassabis Feb 2025 60 Minutes interview + Nov 2025 Wired interview reaffirmed AGI 'within a decade'. Consistent with 2032-2042 range from Singularity Predictions 2023.
Predictor: Demis Hassabis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Demis Hassabis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y
Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.213 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.188 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.149 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.130 |
| prereq | 229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation — Brett Adcock | 73.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.125 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (14)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (240)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_010 | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_001 | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| prereq | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_014 | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 239_003 | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_026 | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_052 | $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_015 | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_016 | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_018 | Universal High Income will be implemented | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_019 | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_023 | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_001 | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_025 | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_057 | Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_025 | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_024 | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_012 | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_043 | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_032 | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_001 | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_005 | Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_023 | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_039 | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_060 | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| prereq | 239_002 | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_004 | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_021 | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_028 | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 245_018 | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 245_019 | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_034 | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_021 | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 248_047 | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_030 | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_004 | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| prereq | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| prereq | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| prereq | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_059 | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| prereq | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_022 | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS | ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS | AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.703 | manifold | Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026? | 73% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.647 | gdelt | intelligence trust the equation that will decide australias ai winners 625399 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.598 | manifold | When will the Gravity Chess finals happen? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "AGI",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "Hassabis's AGI window 2032-2042 positions him between Kurzweil (2029) and Musk (2025-26) — conservative among AGI-hopefuls.",
"to_year": 2042,
"verbatim": "First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else",
"conv_cues": "predicts; specific window",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2032,
"timeframe": "2032-2042",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "229_013",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "229_043",
"expected_date": "2027-02-13",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "229_032",
"expected_date": "2027-11-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "229_025",
"expected_date": "2028-06-04",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "230_008",
"expected_date": "2028-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "229_003",
"expected_date": "2028-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path",
"status": "pending",
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"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "S_AGI_MID_2029",
"expected_date": "2029-03-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "SEM_034",
"expected_date": "2039-09-22",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "AGI",
"affiliation": "Google DeepMind",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
"source_refs": "6, 23",
"target_date": "2037-06-15",
"display_date": "2039-09-22",
"episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
"key_catalyst": "DeepMind Gemini capability disclosures",
"parse_method": "YEAR_RANGE midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "AI",
"episode_title": "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosystem (2023-2026)",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": false,
"source_report": "Semiconductor_Prediction_Research_Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
"appears_in_eps": "SEM-RPT",
"futurist_phase": "Phase 2-3 (2028-2031+)",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C5"
],
"report_evidence": "Hassabis AGI 2032-2042 window as calibration anchor between Kurzweil conservative and SF consensus aggre
... (truncated)