← Cockpit
SEM_034predictionAI/AGIAGI

True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.

Predictor: Demis Hassabis

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
28.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2032-01-01 – 2042-12-31
Edges in / out
240 / 0
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else | DeepMind Gemini capability disclosures

Key catalyst: DeepMind Gemini capability disclosures

Watch events: DeepMind Gemini roadmap + benchmark releases; Hassabis public AGI timeline updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosystem (2023-2026)"
First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Hassabis Feb 2025 60 Minutes interview + Nov 2025 Wired interview reaffirmed AGI 'within a decade'. Consistent with 2032-2042 range from Singularity Predictions 2023.

Predictor: Demis Hassabis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Demis Hassabis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.588

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate
20.0%
1/5 historical
Inside weight
0.300
TRF=1.00
Outside weight
0.700
pulling toward base rate
inside 55.0% → blend 28.7% -26.3pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

1 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 28.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2029-03-31pendingScenario fires: AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 29%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z28.7%-26.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.287 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.213
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.188
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.149
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5500.050+0.130
prereq229_013
The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation Brett Adcock
73.4%0.5500.050+0.125

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (240)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq238_010AI takeoff/inflection is happening nowAI
prereq232_014Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq229_013The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.AI
prereqCMQ_001By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.AI
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq231_021Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Consumer
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq230_011Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Markets/Stocks
prereq233_017Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Labor/Jobs
prereq242_022Personal garages at home will disappearReal Estate
prereq242_013Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Auto/Transport
prereq241_007Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)AI
prereq231_005Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).AI
prereq236_047New emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingMacro/Economy
prereq238_049Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Auto/Transport
prereq236_048Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldMacro/Economy
prereq241_059Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsEnergy
prereq234_02380% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearLabor/Jobs
prereq236_026College bankruptcy rate will skyrocketEducation
prereq232_017AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.AI
prereq241_044Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEnergy
prereq240_044College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingEducation
prereq232_010Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.AI
prereq238_055Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Macro/Economy
prereq240_043CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsLabor/Jobs
prereq231_044Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Macro/Economy
prereq235_033Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.Auto/Transport
prereq237_004Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Consumer
prereq231_011The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Geopolitics
prereq241_014The world a year from today will be nothing like the world todayAI
prereq230_025The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.AI
prereq232_041PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Geopolitics
prereq231_012Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.AI
prereq242_012Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 monthsAuto/Transport
prereq233_001Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Labor/Jobs
prereq233_002Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Education
prereq241_018Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Energy
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereq234_020AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030AI
prereq243_040Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryConsumer
prereq231_036Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Space
prereq243_046When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyConsumer
prereq243_042Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardConsumer
prereq235_012Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_014Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability.AI
prereq235_023Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Energy
prereq235_036AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Media/Ads
prereq230_044Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Geopolitics
prereq236_006AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayMacro/Economy
prereq236_012An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksGeopolitics
prereq236_013Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Geopolitics
prereq247_047Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Energy
prereq236_016College premium is quickly evaporatingEducation
prereq236_024Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureReal Estate
prereq236_027Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upMacro/Economy
prereq236_028AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyConsumer
prereq236_029Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulatedAI
prereq236_031Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersMacro/Economy
prereq231_008AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.AI
prereq236_035Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsLabor/Jobs
prereq243_032Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Markets/Stocks
prereq243_029Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsConsumer
prereq239_003We are currently in AI hard takeoffAI
prereq241_001We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIAI
prereq236_046Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkMacro/Economy
prereq241_009Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AILabor/Jobs
prereq241_010Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesMacro/Economy
prereq242_019EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionAuto/Transport
prereq231_030US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Energy
prereq241_0201 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEnergy
prereq241_02310% of US electricity will be used by data centersEnergy
prereq241_038Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredAI
prereq238_054Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Macro/Economy
prereq241_048AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEducation
prereq232_019AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.AI
prereq232_006YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Media/Ads
prereq232_026World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Labor/Jobs
prereq238_048US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Geopolitics
prereq247_059African nations will be impacted least by AI transitionLabor/Jobs
prereq247_032Full cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_046Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Real Estate
prereq246_045Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Macro/Economy
prereq246_026In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman).AI
prereq244_037Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workLabor/Jobs
prereq244_033Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failMarkets/Stocks
prereqCMQ_004AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.AI
prereq244_022Automation will typically augment work rather than replace itLabor/Jobs
prereq244_021AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansMedia/Ads
prereq241_063America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyGeopolitics
prereq244_007Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsReal Estate
prereq238_046xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleEnergy
prereq238_052$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Markets/Stocks
prereq238_053Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normMacro/Economy
prereq231_048Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.AI
prereq229_025Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Robotics
prereq239_015Tesla output per employee will become very very highLabor/Jobs
prereq239_016Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountLabor/Jobs
prereq239_018Universal High Income will be implementedMacro/Economy
prereq239_019Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthMacro/Economy
prereq239_023AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyMacro/Economy
prereq232_008Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.AI
prereq242_001Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionAI
prereq232_009Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereq241_025Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsSpace
prereq241_039In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull aheadAI
prereq241_057Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentRobotics
prereq232_020Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Geopolitics
prereq232_023AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.AI
prereq232_025Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Macro/Economy
prereq232_034Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware.AI
prereq232_036AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_022Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesLabor/Jobs
prereq244_024Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upLabor/Jobs
prereq244_012Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointMarkets/Stocks
prereq234_022Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindLabor/Jobs
prereq234_024Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisLabor/Jobs
prereq235_011PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Markets/Stocks
prereq235_021Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Auto/Transport
prereq236_011Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionGeopolitics
prereq236_015Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterLabor/Jobs
prereq236_040CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationLabor/Jobs
prereq242_029Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesLabor/Jobs
prereq236_044Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveEducation
prereq236_050Poverty level around $25K per person going forwardMacro/Economy
prereq237_00312 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.AI
prereq237_012Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_049Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsEnergy
prereq232_056Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.AI
prereq229_003Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Robotics
prereq229_032Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.AI
prereq229_043Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.Robotics
prereq230_008AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.AI
prereq230_026The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Consumer
prereq230_028Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.AI
prereq230_029Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.AI
prereq230_031We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.AI
prereq230_042A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'.AI
prereq231_004The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.AI
prereq231_007AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.AI
prereq231_010China has peaked and is going to be on descent.Geopolitics
prereq231_047Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.AI
prereq232_001Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.AI
prereq232_002Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.AI
prereq232_005Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_016Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.AI
prereq232_029Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_032Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Crypto
prereq232_054SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.AI
prereq234_001India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineGeopolitics
prereq234_037Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsGeopolitics
prereq235_039AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Geopolitics
prereq235_045Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Consumer
prereq236_001Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyMacro/Economy
prereq236_032AI has chance of fixing poverty globallyMacro/Economy
prereq237_005Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Markets/Stocks
prereq237_007Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.AI
prereq237_013Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Macro/Economy
prereq237_014Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Labor/Jobs
prereq237_023Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.AI
prereq238_006Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Labor/Jobs
prereq238_039Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next yearAI
prereq238_042Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesConsumer
prereq238_059Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdMacro/Economy
prereq238_060Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksMacro/Economy
prereq238_063Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatLabor/Jobs
prereq238_066Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsEnergy
prereq239_002AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestAI
prereq239_004xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026AI
prereq239_021Money will stop being relevant at some pointMacro/Economy
prereq239_028Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleEnergy
prereq240_032PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAI
prereq240_039Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularityLabor/Jobs
prereq240_051After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstLabor/Jobs
prereq240_059AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsMacro/Economy
prereq241_042Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceGeopolitics
prereq242_028AI could automate 25% of US work hoursLabor/Jobs
prereq242_034AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Markets/Stocks
prereq244_025Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceLabor/Jobs
prereq245_018Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyMacro/Economy
prereq245_019US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactMacro/Economy
prereq245_038People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Consumer
prereq247_031Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_022Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Markets/Stocks
prereq248_034Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Markets/Stocks
prereq233_021AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.AI
prereq242_047Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsBiotech/Longevity
prereq242_055Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsMarkets/Stocks
prereq236_039Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersEnergy
prereq232_011Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.AI
prereq231_019Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Other
prereq247_054Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Real Estate
prereq230_039Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Education
prereq248_002LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Space
prereq248_007We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.AI
prereq248_026Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Other
prereq248_047Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Markets/Stocks
prereq240_030Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanGeopolitics
prereq240_017Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutEnergy
prereq240_004A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutesAI
prereq238_069The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsGeopolitics
prereq230_032Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Geopolitics
prereq236_043Universities will become largest incubators on the planetEducation
prereq235_043Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Defense
prereq234_043Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueEducation
prereq234_04150% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsOther
prereq234_038Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityReal Estate
prereq234_011Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseDefense
prereq234_009Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyDefense
prereq234_003Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAI
prereq230_023Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Biotech/Longevity
prereq233_018Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Education
prereq230_015For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Labor/Jobs
prereq233_011Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Education
prereq246_018Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Energy
prereq233_006Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.AI
prereq246_041Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Energy
prereq233_003Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.Education
prereq247_005Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCMarkets/Stocks
prereq247_017Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyMacro/Economy
prereq247_019AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractMacro/Economy
prereq232_058Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.AI
prereq236_038Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesEducation
prereq232_059Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Macro/Economy
prereq240_012Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAI
prereq233_004AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months.AI
prereq238_033Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Markets/Stocks
prereq233_019Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Education
prereq238_028Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Markets/Stocks
prereq230_022Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Robotics
correlateS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoffasi_recursive_self_improvement
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.703manifoldWill Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?73%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.647gdeltintelligence trust the equation that will decide australias ai winners 625399mentionspending2026-04-30
0.598manifoldWhen will the Gravity Chess finals happen?mentionspending2026-04-27

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "AGI",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Hassabis's AGI window 2032-2042 positions him between Kurzweil (2029) and Musk (2025-26) — conservative among AGI-hopefuls.",
  "to_year": 2042,
  "verbatim": "First we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else",
  "conv_cues": "predicts; specific window",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2032,
  "timeframe": "2032-2042",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_013",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
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... (truncated)