S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSscenarioasi_recursive_self_improvement
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
60.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 51
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Soft takeoff. AGI exists for years before recursive self-improvement manifests. Most physicist / cognitive scientist consensus.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 60%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_054 ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices — Peter Diamandis | 57.1% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.131 |
| prereq | 242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesha — Peter Diamandis | 51.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.131 |
| prereq | 244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport — Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.117 |
| prereq | 240_049 Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, universit — Dave Blundin | 49.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| prereq | 242_053 New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV — Salim Ismail | 45.6% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.106 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (51)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_054 | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_004 | Race car driving will persist as a sport | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_058 | Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 239_018 | Universal High Income will be implemented | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_024 | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_037 | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| prereq | 242_053 | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_048 | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_037 | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_002 | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_060 | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_044 | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_028 | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. | AI | — |
| prereq | 245_045 | Colossal considers Colossal platform core will stay focused on biodiversity and de-extinction | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 240_030 | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| prereq | 245_037 | Mosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| correlate | 238_010 | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_005 | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_003 | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_012 | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_002 | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_039 | Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| correlate | 240_024 | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_072 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_071 | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin to merge with AI; computational intelligence will multiply a thousandfold, triggering a technological singularity where growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_006 | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_012 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_003 | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_027 | The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_016 | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_008 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_001 | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_022 | AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine convergence enabling: mental transfer from brain to brain, integration of nanobots into human bloodstream for perfect biological health maintenance, ach... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | IND_028 | Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI and advanced nanotechnology — occurs in the 2030s; once AGI crosses into superintelligence, it will solve fundamental mechanisms of biological decay, leading to worldwide eradi... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Linked documents (9)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | arxiv | GDSD: Reinforcement Learning as Guided Denoiser Self-Distillation for Diffusion Language Models | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.570 | github_release | facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.109 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-12 |
| 0.559 | arxiv | Dissipative Dark Energy can explain the DESI phantom crossing | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.557 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2019-06-24 |
| 0.551 | arxiv | Unitarity, Recursion and Soft Limits in (EA)dS through Dressing | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.523 | arxiv | Subleading Chern-Simons soft factors in perturbative de Sitter | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.522 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.6.5 | — | mentions | pending | 2020-12-21 |
| 0.522 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-02-13 |
| 0.516 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.7.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-05-28 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "asi",
"dimension": "asi_recursive_self_improvement",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "ASI",
"family_order": 3,
"beyond_horizon": true,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}