Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ
Predictor: Salim Ismail · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source
Prediction text
Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | intelligence if we define it in the traditional term because everybody knows my beef with the the framing here but it probably doesn't have a fixed upper bound because once you have recursive self-improvement there it becomes a function of compute and architecture that you're going to end up with governance ceilings and other constraints much more so than the IQ ceilings.
Verbatim quote
intelligence if we define it in the traditional term because everybody knows my beef with the the framing here but it probably doesn't have a fixed upper bound because once you have recursive self-improvement there it becomes a function of compute and architecture that you're going to end up with governance ceilings and other constraints much more so than the IQ ceilings.
Predictor: Salim Ismail
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Salim Ismail is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y
Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-08-02pendingEU AI Act fully applicable (Aug 2 2026)How: EU AI Act becomes fully enforceable per AIA Art. 113Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst model crosses 10^26 FLOP training compute thresholdHow: Public disclosure (paper, system card, or regulatory filing) that a model was trained at >=10^26 FLOPsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingEU Commission lowers compute threshold for systemic-risk GPAI from 10^25 toward 10^24How: EU Commission delegated act adjusts the systemic-risk compute threshold downward from 10^25 FLOPsSource: llm_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-08-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingFirst major nation imposes compute or capability cap on frontier AI trainingHow: G7 government enacts statute or executive order limiting training-run compute or capability scope (not just notification)Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2030-12-12pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2033-04-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2030-01-01 → 2040-12-31pendingInternational compute-cap treaty (analogous to nuclear non-proliferation) signed by >=3 of US/EU/UK/ChinaHow: Multilateral treaty formally limiting frontier-AI training compute signed by >=3 major AI powersSource: llm_enrichedconf 30%
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | 60.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.067 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.044 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS | ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.655 | manifold | Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be. | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.629 | manifold | To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description] | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "intelligence if we define it in the traditional term because everybody knows my beef with the the framing here but it probably doesn't have a fixed upper bound because once you have recursive self-improvement there it becomes a function of compute and architecture that you're going to end up with governance ceilings and other constraints much more so than the IQ ceilings.",
"verbatim": "intelligence if we define it in the traditional term because everybody knows my beef with the the framing here but it probably doesn't have a fixed upper bound because once you have recursive self-improvement there it becomes a function of compute and architecture that you're going to end up with governance ceilings and other constraints much more so than the IQ ceilings.",
"conv_cues": "probably",
"direction": "MIXED",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
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{
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{
"kind": "quartile_checkpo
... (truncated)